TTC: Sheppard Subway Expansion (Speculative)

[nfitz]

If the Liberals don't call an election shortly after electing a new leader and instead try to hang on until 2015, their only path is ruin.

I can't offhand of any governing party in Ontario or Canada in decades that has called an election shortly after changing leader that hasn't been completely trounced at the polls.

They have a mandate to go until 2015. With almost 3 years remaining in the mandate, and 3 years to provide a credible government to campaign on during the 2015 election, I'd think the Liberals would be crazy to call the election early - unless they somehow found themselves ahead in the polls.

But even then, remember the last Premier to call an early election in Ontario? Peterson in 1990? Remember how well that went? I left on vacation for a few weeks with a Liberal majority government in the bag, and got back to discover a NDP majority government was about to be elected

 

[GenerationW]

Most people would see the new leader as being illegitimate if he/she claimed to be an extension of McGuinty's mandate. The risk of a 2013 election for the Liberals is the same as for any other sitting government -- losing. The risk of waiting until 2015 would be suffering a historic and catastrophic loss.

 

[BurlOak]

I can't offhand of any governing party in Ontario or Canada in decades that has called an election shortly after changing leader that hasn't been completely trounced at the polls.

They have a mandate to go until 2015. With almost 3 years remaining in the mandate, and 3 years to provide a credible government to campaign on during the 2015 election, I'd think the Liberals would be crazy to call the election early - unless they somehow found themselves ahead in the polls.

But even then, remember the last Premier to call an early election in Ontario? Peterson in 1990? Remember how well that went? I left on vacation for a few weeks with a Liberal majority government in the bag, and got back to discover a NDP majority government was about to be elected

I remember looking up the longest lasting Federal minority governments, and the longest was about 2.5 years - actually the two longest are both under Harper. I think this also applies to Ontario where minority governments of Pederson and Davis both lasted less that those of Harper. So all of history suggests that the election will be next year. Will the Liberals call the election, or will they be brought down by opposition, is the only unknown.

So I would say there is another opportunity to change the Sheppard Transit plan during this provincial election.

 

[nfitz]

Most people would see the new leader as being illegitimate if he/she claimed to be an extension of McGuinty's mandate. The risk of a 2013 election for the Liberals is the same as for any other sitting government -- losing. The risk of waiting until 2015 would be suffering a historic and catastrophic loss.

I doubt that. One votes for the MPP not the leader. No one's MPP is changing. As long as they don't drift particularly far off what they were elected on ... which wasn't overly specific.

I remember looking up the longest lasting Federal minority governments, and the longest was about 2.5 years - actually the two longest are both under Harper. I think this also applies to Ontario where minority governments of Pederson and Davis both lasted less that those of Harper. So all of history suggests that the election will be next year. Will the Liberals call the election, or will they be brought down by opposition, is the only unknown.

The situation is hardly comparable. The current provincial minority government is the strongest minority government (in terms of percentage of seats) I've ever heard of. One would expect there is the potential for it to last the longest.

So I would say there is another opportunity to change the Sheppard Transit plan during this provincial election.

I'd guess the options are the current plan (under Liberals or NDP), or nothing at all (which is what Hudak has promised).

It's probably more a function of what the next mayor of Toronto will do, with the mayoral election coming before the provincial election ... either in 2013 or 2014.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

If the Liberals don't call an election shortly after electing a new leader and instead try to hang on until 2015, their only path is ruin.

Most people would see the new leader as being illegitimate if he/she claimed to be an extension of McGuinty's mandate. The risk of a 2013 election for the Liberals is the same as for any other sitting government -- losing. The risk of waiting until 2015 would be suffering a historic and catastrophic loss.

This is false. We just had an election. People are weary.

 

[BurlOak]

I'd guess the options are the current plan (under Liberals or NDP), or nothing at all (which is what Hudak has promised).

I think many people in the Sheppard East area would prefer nothing. That would keep the dream of a subway alive.

 

[nfitz]

I think many people in the Sheppard East area would prefer nothing. That would keep the dream of a subway alive.

When I used to work on Sheppard east of the DVP back about 25 years ago, the dream was alive then too. LOL.

 

[sixrings]

I think many people in the Sheppard East area would prefer nothing. That would keep the dream of a subway alive.

I would think on a transit thread most people would be transit advocates and would support lrt vs nothing. every other house on my block goes to the cottage for the weekend.. They hate the city and wish it was the Toronto of the 50's. Muskoka or Blue mountain is more their flavor. these same people are against the eglinton lrt. Number one reason is it may effect their commute. some people because they have unrealistic biases shouldn't be involved in planning.

 

[Rainforest]

The LRT might not start construction soon (Sheppard East construction doesn't start resume until 2017, however Metrolinx recently announced that construction of the carhouse at Conlins Road and Sheppard East would begin in 2013. And there's been some mention of early construction of some track on Sheppard East to the carhouse, so there's something to test the new LRVs on. Once that contract is awarded, it's going to be difficult to back-track on a Sheppard East LRT, and the only issue left for debate is where the western terminus to switch to the subway would be.

They can build LRT track between Conlins and the Sheppard / Progress intersection, and use it for testing the vehicles. Once SLRT is extended, they can use the same track for non-revenue connection to the carhouse, or even run a revenue branch of SLRT to Conlins.

Potentially, that preserves the possibility of extending the subway to Agincourt GO, and building the LRT only east of Agincourt.

 

[ssiguy2]

They're not that unusual. Many metro/subway systems in Asia use catenary power.




The catch is, Ottawa is building a LRT that is fully grade separated and is able to run at a headway of 1.75 minutes. This is how the system is capable of providing such capacity. Assume everything else is equal, a system with min headway of 3min can only provide 58% of the capacity.

Yes I know many use catenary power but I think the issue was those subways/Metros that use third rail power underground and catenary above ground on the same train. They are not that common but I did some research and they do exist and the closet example is Boston's Blue Line subway. Not common but there are a few particularily with older converted legacy systems.

I think transferring Sheppard to LRT is an obscene waste of funds but I never really contemplated the idea of using heavy rail at grade as I never knew there were such systems.

 

[gweed123]

The catch is, Ottawa is building a LRT that is fully grade separated and is able to run at a headway of 1.75 minutes. This is how the system is capable of providing such capacity. Assume everything else is equal, a system with min headway of 3min can only provide 58% of the capacity.

But there's nothing stopping the TTC from running 2 routes on the line: one from Yonge to Meadowvale (Route A), and one from Yonge to Victoria Park (Route B). Run both routes at 4 min headways during rush hour, and you get a combined frequency of 2 mins from Yonge to Victoria Park, which would be grade-separated and could handle the increased frequencies. East of Victoria Park, the projected ridership is barely in the LRT range anyways.

But yes, I do agree with you that a grade-separated LRT system provides a substantially higher capacity, and I think Ottawa chose the right model, although personally I think they should have gone with Mark II ICTS, as their Technology Selection Report actually had ICTS (which they called "Mini Metro") ranked slightly higher than LRT. But like most transit projects recently, LRT is being chosen because of its optics and its "in-vogueness" as opposed to the technical requirements of the line in question.

If the lines that were being built as LRT were examined completely objectively (examination of projected ridership, capital costs, and future operating costs), I would venture to say a significant number of them wouldn't be LRTs. More than half of the original Transit City wouldn't be, that's for sure.

 

[ssiguy2]

LRT has become flavour of the month in NA. It certainly can be used very effectively as L.A. and Calgary prove but it's this "one size fits all" mentality of people like Miller that has put Toronto in the situation of building LRT with subway costs and with no particular reason. Eglinton, considering the price tag, should be a totally grade separated system and an extension of SRT down Eglinton is the obvious {and most affordable option} but LRT advocates think otherwise.

If any of the TTC or city manderines had bothered to come out an see Vancouver's SkyTrain and new vehicles and saw how effective and efficient ICTS can really be they wouldn't be having this conversation.

 

[nfitz]

LRT has become flavour of the month in NA. It certainly can be used very effectively as L.A. and Calgary prove but it's this "one size fits all" mentality of people like Miller that has put Toronto in the situation of building LRT with subway costs and with no particular reason.

Your statement has no basis. If it was a one size fit all solution, why did Miller and all push subway for the Spadina extension, and push ahead studies for both Yonge North and the downtown relief line.

There's certainly room for criticism, but the basis of your criticism is deeply flawed.

 

[GenerationW]

This is false. We just had an election. People are weary.

Well then if there is a 2013 election, you can stay home and relax.

Your statement has no basis. If it was a one size fit all solution, why did Miller and all push subway for the Spadina extension, and push ahead studies for both Yonge North and the downtown relief line.

First-term David Miller campaigned on a Sheppard extension, and lobbied hard for it in 2004 and into '05. Being the good politician he was, Miller certainly accepted Spadina once he realized he was trumped by Queen's Park, Ottawa, and York Region, but he never pushed on his own for Spadina

Miller's call for a DRL study was clearly a reaction to York Region making what appeared to be substantial progress in advancing a Yonge extension into Richmond Hill. It's a complete fiction to say that Miller (or Giambrone) was ever proactive on a DRL.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Well then if there is a 2013 election, you can stay home and relax.

So can you, because it's not happening.

First-term David Miller campaigned on a Sheppard extension, and lobbied hard for it in 2004 and into '05. Being the good politician he was, Miller certainly accepted Spadina once he realized he was trumped by Queen's Park, Ottawa, and York Region, but he never pushed on his own for Spadina

Miller's call for a DRL study was clearly a reaction to York Region making what appeared to be substantial progress in advancing a Yonge extension into Richmond Hill. It's a complete fiction to say that Miller (or Giambrone) was ever proactive on a DRL.

Fine, but you are basically washing away the fact he did it by saying it was only because of york region. Whatever the reason was he tried and failed in this system. So transit city is born. Being around for as long as you have, you know that Ontario would rather play catch then be proactive. At least he tried.