TTC: Flexity Streetcars Testing & Delivery (Bombardier)

[Amare]

Glad to hear that the 505 and 506 will be a complete disaster starting in February. I'll add those routes to my list of routes to permanently avoid no matter what the case.

Yes Bombardier is largely at fault on this, but it's hard not to put some blame on the TTC here as well. Even if all 204 streetcars were here we'd still have a significant shortage of vehicles. There would still be the same number of vehicles on the streets today with an all Flexity fleet compared to the mixed fleet we have today (ie: ~170-180).

So while it's cute that the TTC likes to blame Bombardier for this mess, we would still be in the same mess had all the Flexitys arrived on time. In a sense, Bombardier is partially taking the TTC off the hook for the equally horrid service levels we would have seen since they wouldnt have anyone else to blame but themselves had all the Flexitys been on property.

 

[nfitz]

That would be TTC. Then you can say the City, since they built this area in the first place and that where the problem started in the first place.

The contractor doing the work on Queensway is the best of the bunch and is the day team

I'm neither familiar with who did the design, or the construction.

But I'm also referring to other similar "water table is too high" excuses. I don't think TTC did design at Highway 407 station.

 

[drum118]

Glad to hear that the 505 and 506 will be a complete disaster starting in February. I'll add those routes to my list of routes to permanently avoid no matter what the case.

Yes Bombardier is largely at fault on this, but it's hard not to put some blame on the TTC here as well. Even if all 204 streetcars were here we'd still have a significant shortage of vehicles. There would still be the same number of vehicles on the streets today with an all Flexity fleet compared to the mixed fleet we have today (ie: ~170-180).

So while it's cute that the TTC likes to blame Bombardier for this mess, we would still be in the same mess had all the Flexitys arrived on time. In a sense, Bombardier is partially taking the TTC off the hook for the equally horrid service levels we would have seen since they wouldnt have anyone else to blame but themselves had all the Flexitys been on property.

Well I and others only can say "we told you so" to TTC and the City for going for 204 cars in place of 252 that should be order starting in 2005. All we have done is moved from one cattle car system to another with no room to improve the quality of service or meet the pent-up demand going lowfloor, as well increase of city growth. We made that comment starting back in 2005 about moving from one cattle car to another and sooooo true.

If BBD had delivery as per contract, you would need some buses to fill the quality of service level until TTC and City gets off their ass and order more cars this year, let alone 2 years ago, than wait until 2019 or 2020 to do so, based on the number of extra cars BBD will have to build to cover the back charges to them for being late.

Would it be safe to say 4462 is on TTC property now, but where is 4463 to 4465? If BBD is to ship 3 cars this month, it would need to ship 6 to catch up to the current schedule. This will be a tell tail if BBD is going to able to ship 6-7 cars per month this year.

@nfitz 407 was a design by other than TTC since TTC doesn't have the staff to do it in the first place, with TTC doing the streetcar network. Having watch various contractors over the years doing TTC tracks, there is only one contractor that stands out from all the rest and they are doing the Queensway.

 

[Maltesefalcon]

Would it be safe to say 4462 is on TTC property now, but where is 4463 to 4465? If BBD is to ship 3 cars this month, it would need to ship 6 to catch up to the current schedule. This will be a tell tail if BBD is going to able to ship 6-7 cars per month this year.

Although Bomardier did not meet the revised target of 35 cars for 2017, they also did not issue yet another schedule to account for the missing ones and reassign a due date for them.
So technically, the still current schedule would mean they would need to ship #68 by end of January to be back on track.
I would agree this is the best opportunity to do so as the rest of the year is pretty ambitious already.

 

[44 North]

I wonder if they will be prematurely scrapping the CLRV/ALRV fleet rather than fix it. Some of them are quite literally being held together by duct tape and not worth trying to fix.

Maybe. Pass on the savings of canceling the refurb to pay for these future bus operations. I'd prefer we rehab a significant portion of C/ALRVs for indefinite use, but I guess AODA prevents that.

Glad to hear that the 505 and 506 will be a complete disaster starting in February. I'll add those routes to my list of routes to permanently avoid no matter what the case.

Yes Bombardier is largely at fault on this, but it's hard not to put some blame on the TTC here as well. Even if all 204 streetcars were here we'd still have a significant shortage of vehicles. There would still be the same number of vehicles on the streets today with an all Flexity fleet compared to the mixed fleet we have today (ie: ~170-180).

So while it's cute that the TTC likes to blame Bombardier for this mess, we would still be in the same mess had all the Flexitys arrived on time. In a sense, Bombardier is partially taking the TTC off the hook for the equally horrid service levels we would have seen since they wouldnt have anyone else to blame but themselves had all the Flexitys been on property.

I put some blame on TTC as well, and the decision to go with a single massive order. Maybe the finger should be pointed at politicians in that regard, since I'm sure the Prov had something to do with it (they did also order a large amount of Freedoms). But regardless the massive order was too much of a gamble imo. Seems like it would've been wiser to split the order over two suppliers. Generally speaking two suppliers equals twice the delivery rate, and I guess half the likelihood of getting vehicles that turn out to be not as optimal. Not saying the Outlook isn't optimal, but maybe if we got another vehicle on the road to compare with we could gauge which is better.

 

[nfitz]

View attachment 131905

Not sure what to make of the new table in the current (January) report.

These are starting to look like the entered service numbers.

 

[drum118]

Not sure what to make of the new table in the current (January) report.

These are starting to look like the entered service numbers.

59 cars are in service

4459 went into service before 4458

 

[nfitz]

59 cars are in service

4459 went into service before 4458

Presumably the text was written between when the 58th and 59th car went into service.

 

[Maltesefalcon]

There are several issues at play here. Let’s assume 4462 has arrived in the city now. There are 98 weeks remaining in the current schedule, including the first week of November/2019. (Which I am convinced was added as a placeholder. More cars will eventually be rescheduled for the last two months of 2019 IMHO.)

Based on that, Bombardier has to ship a vehicle every five days for the next 98 weeks, to stay on schedule. That’s how they should be looking at the situation. If the transit time from factory to TTC is longer than that, they will have to address the issues if cars start to stockpile in the plant.

They have blamed their supply chain for failure to meet the 70, 65, 63 targets for 2017. Let’s consider how they (originally) scheduled the work. 18 cars for the first nine months, and 22 for the last three. The bodies and frames are large, complicated and expensive. How is any subcontractor supposed to react to a schedule that calls for an average 2 per month, ramps up to 7/month for three months, then goes back to 3?

Wheels, motors, seats take up little space and can be stockpiled to a certain extent, for future use. They are also cheap and easy to produce. How much of the value of a streetcar is tied up in the body and frame? 50%, 60% or more? It is unreasonable to ask suppliers to build large numbers of these items ahead of time and store them for future use; unless they are incrementally paid for on completion, not on delivery. Even if they were willing, how many would have the floor space to build and store them?

The alternative is to build just in time. However that means they have to triple their output in a very short time. Where do the extra workers and floor space come from in that duration? Short answer-they don't, no matter what promises were made. So you either have a sub working at 1/3 capacity for nine months or severely overloaded for the next three. And there is no incentive for a sub to expand their facility and staff to that extent for a short-term production run.

I’ve worked in the private sector in several production environments, for nearly 40 years. Had to coordinate both production and sales schedules, because they are joined at the hip. If I had a production or sales manager that sent me a ridiculous schedule like 2017, they would have been fired on the spot. Good grief they actually had a production target of zero cars for January 2017 and no one questioned it.

So why do this? Some companies like to backload their FY shipments to the last quarter. That way they can show a strong quarter in billables for year end, use up on-hand inventories (i.e. clean the barn) and push some of the accounts payable into the next FY. (30 day terms are standard, but most industries actually take 60 days to clear it up.) Gives them a strong bottom line for share price, on hand cash reserves and for year-end bonuses. Bombardier got caught short this time both on streetcars and CSeries, which will seriously drop their projected revenues for FY2017.

BBD seems more fixated on share price than customer service these days. If they don’t clean up their act, the reduction of potential customers will hurt them in the long run.

 

[dowlingm]

Well I and others only can say "we told you so" to TTC and the City for going for 204 cars in place of 252 that should be order starting in 2005.

Where was the money for 252 cars coming from, and how was the order going to start in 2005? Are we leaving the Queensway and heading for fan fiction?

 

[drum118]

Further Delays Could Spell Problems for Bombardier, Inc.

 

[Maltesefalcon]

I think I saw a post here confirming arrival of 4461 and a possible photo of 4462 being delivered. Anyone know if anything else is in transit or even ready for shipment at this point? We will be half way through the month on Monday. Anthing less than 4468 at least built by Jan 31 means their latest schedule is likely out the window already.

 

[dowlingm]

I think I saw a post here confirming arrival of 4461 and a possible photo of 4462 being delivered. Anyone know if anything else is in transit or even ready for shipment at this point? We will be half way through the month on Monday. Anthing less than 4468 at least built by Jan 31 means their latest schedule is likely out the window already.

Per CPTDB and this tweet 4462 arrived at Leslie on Thursday https://twitter.com/flexityoutlook/status/951563889371574272

 

[Maltesefalcon]

If we assume or accept that 4462 was largely built in December, then BBD delivered 13; but built 16 cars in the three months Oct, Nov, Dec, 2017.
There are still three cars unshipped for the 65 committed on the schedule, yet not re-assigned to a new time slot. I am assuming that BBD did not want to simply tack another three cars into November 2019, so soon after their last revision.
Those cars still need to be accounted for. BBD can salvage some of their reputation by making up the difference in Q1 2018.
That would increase their workload from 17 cars to 20. This is not unreasonable. The quota for Q2 is 21.
Long term, I am convinced they are still not ready to actually deliver more than 1 per week over the course of 2018. I hope I am wrong, but if they are still hovering somewhere around 4467 at the end of February 2018, I don't hold out much hope for the rest of the schedule.

 

[SaugeenJunction]

I know it’s different, but Boeing can build a 737 in 9 days, and can produce 42 per month. Just thought it was an interesting comparison.