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TTC: Flexity Streetcars Testing & Delivery (Bombardier)

Maltesefalcon

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This January will be the best opportunity they have to catch up, as the original target was only three. If they do that then maybe they have a chance.
If you look at the remaining schedules month by month, for the most part they average 7 per month. The numbers jog back and forth a bit but six is usually preceeded or followed by eight to average out.
But it looks somewhat like the sort of "randomness" one would add, to make it look like the schedule was not simply pulled out of thin air.
Not only that why does the 2018 and 2019 tally vary just slightly if you compare each month? If you make 7 in March 2018 why can you only make 6 in March 2019? Surely they don't have it that finely tuned that far in advance. Good Lord they couldn't even predict two weeks ahead in December. And I've noticed they have ramped up to the exact same 7-8-7 quota for the last quarter of 2018 as they had(and failed to produce) in 2017.
Lets see what happens in three weeks.
 

nfitz

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High water table around the south end of Grenadier Pond. Boreholes were dug at the end of the previous year, before our wet spring.
Which is why you put in monitoring wells for 2-3 years.

Though really? City topo map says Grenadier Pond is about 76.0 m ASL, while Lake Ontario is about 75.0 m ASL.

A brief glance at 2016 data shows Lake Level was about 74.45 m for the last 3 months of the year. Look how this compares to norms:

upload_2018-1-9_1-29-19.png


Not bad for that time of year.

Looks like issue isn't it was low in late fall. But whoever did it, wasn't aware that it's normally (by design) higher in the summer. And they had planned to it being higher than normal this spring. Though obviously situation didn't help.

Yes, it was even worse. But this is the old "high water level" TTC excuse. Where the real answer is "we hire the low bidder for engineering design, and we very often end up with the ones who won't do it properly, and don't have the budget to think about it. Which is why engineering work is best not bid based soley on lowest price if you pass a minimum threshold.

I thought engineering for things like this were done on the basis of 100-year (or longer) projections. If the last spring was above the 100-year high mark, then that's impressive, but engineers are supposed to think for the long term.
For a permanent structure sure. Not so much for planning on when you can work on something.

But they are supposed to know the lake is generally significantly higher in the summer, and at least look up the planned Lake Ontario water level that the International Joint Commission is planning for the following year.
 

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nfitz

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This January will be the best opportunity they have to catch up, as the original target was only three.
Well there's already 4060 and 4061 for January. And the next two are close to shipping, with whatever part didn't come in time. And presumably there's 3 more they'd hope to get out. So 7.

They aren't that far off targets for just the last 3 months or so. The original schedule was 36 most years, and they shipped 16 in the last 3 months. So actually catching up lately, to the original schedule.

They might miss December 2019. Will there be that much sleep lost if they are all here by March 2020. Then they could have the additional 60 by December 2020.

What do you think TTC bought when they had the largest PCC fleet in the 60's as well in the late 50's???
They planned to keep those for years though.

We should (could) have 264 Flexitys in 36 months, even if they miss their targets a bit.
 

Maltesefalcon

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Four in October, three in November and six in December is thirteen, not sixteen. That brings them up to #59. If you wish to count 60 and 61 as December as well, then you have fifteen.
But you can't count them twice. Under those circumstances we start January count at #62. Bombardier would need to ship up to #68 to get back on track by end of January. Thats six in addition to #61 and #62.
Shouldn't be that hard. After all they said they could do ten in December.
 

nfitz

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Four in October, three in November and six in December is thirteen, not sixteen. That brings them up to #59. If you wish to count 60 and 61 as December as well, then you have fifteen.
Well I said shipped.

Hang on though. 4447 shipped in October ... or possibly on September 30, 2017 now I look at it closely. Ah, I see 15. Fair enough.

But you can't count them twice.
LOL ... I wouldn't if you'd catch that!

Really we should count them the way that TTC has been in their regular reports. The most recent of which was:
upload_2018-1-9_4-41-12.png


Which doesn't really match anything - but seems to be deliveries more than anything else.

So what's the rate. 17 first quarter. 21 second quarter, 17 third quarter. 22 4th quarter. And need to catch up 6.

Given in 2016 they had 2 in the 3rd quarter and 6 in the 4th quarter. And the 4 quarters of 2017 they were 3, 6, 7, and 13, I'm somewhat optimistic. The second quarter will be tough.
 

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smallspy

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Which is why you put in monitoring wells for 2-3 years.

When doing a new build, or a substantial reconstruction/reconfiguration, I'd agree with that.

But this was seen as a like-for-like rebuild, even if it really only sort of one. Would monitoring wells be necessary for that long?

Dan
Toronto, Ont.
 

Maltesefalcon

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Well I said shipped.

Hang on though. 4447 shipped in October ... or possibly on September 30, 2017 now I look at it closely. Ah, I see 15. Fair enough.

LOL ... I wouldn't if you'd catch that!

Really we should count them the way that TTC has been in their regular reports. The most recent of which was:
View attachment 131905

Which doesn't really match anything - but seems to be deliveries more than anything else.

So what's the rate. 17 first quarter. 21 second quarter, 17 third quarter. 22 4th quarter. And need to catch up 6.

Given in 2016 they had 2 in the 3rd quarter and 6 in the 4th quarter. And the 4 quarters of 2017 they were 3, 6, 7, and 13, I'm somewhat optimistic. The second quarter will be tough.


I think you may be using the November 2017 version of the spread sheet for the updated projections for the balance of 2017. This does not reflect the actual shipping dates or quantities.

I've been using this web site for reference:

https://cptdb.ca/wiki/index.php/Toronto_Transit_Commission_4400-4603

It's been pretty accurate up to mid-December but has not been updated past that point.
 

nfitz

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When doing a new build, or a substantial reconstruction/reconfiguration, I'd agree with that.

But this was seen as a like-for-like rebuild, even if it really only sort of one. Would monitoring wells be necessary for that long?
To catch seasonal trends and longer term extremes. I prefer 20 years if available!

Although right next to what is basically a massive reservior, controlled by a dam (i.e. Lake Ontario) which pre-publishes the planned elevation ranges at different times of the year - which were all higher than late fall ... no, probably didn't rally need ANY wells. Certainly none at a different time of year.

Though I've never even walked along there, and don't know how Grenadier Pond relates to the lake. But a couple of hours with a level and rod would sort that out.

The real answer of why get 2-3 years, is it's pretty clear that the TTC process is such, that whoever ends up designing all these "water level was higher than expected sites" doesn't have the hydrogeological and hydrological competence or experience to make - well to be honest, some very obvious and basic conclusions.

So TTC would be better off dropping some wells in years ahead of time.

Almost as bad as the poor contractor who pretty much was supposed drop the Lake Ontario water level 10 feet to do the Queens Quay track work.
 

nfitz

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I think you may be using the November 2017 version of the spread sheet for the updated projections for the balance of 2017. This does not reflect the actual shipping dates or quantities.

I've been using this web site for reference:

https://cptdb.ca/wiki/index.php/Toronto_Transit_Commission_4400-4603

It's been pretty accurate up to mid-December but has not been updated past that point.
They normally correct for the past though, and there's a couple of early months that are out by one.

Yes, I was looking at the wiki there as well. And when it's short info, you can normally find it between this forum, another, and twitter.
 

smallspy

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To catch seasonal trends and longer term extremes. I prefer 20 years if available!

Although right next to what is basically a massive reservior, controlled by a dam (i.e. Lake Ontario) which pre-publishes the planned elevation ranges at different times of the year - which were all higher than late fall ... no, probably didn't rally need ANY wells. Certainly none at a different time of year.

Though I've never even walked along there, and don't know how Grenadier Pond relates to the lake. But a couple of hours with a level and rod would sort that out.

The real answer of why get 2-3 years, is it's pretty clear that the TTC process is such, that whoever ends up designing all these "water level was higher than expected sites" doesn't have the hydrogeological and hydrological competence or experience to make - well to be honest, some very obvious and basic conclusions.

So TTC would be better off dropping some wells in years ahead of time.

Almost as bad as the poor contractor who pretty much was supposed drop the Lake Ontario water level 10 feet to do the Queens Quay track work.

Again, for a new build - I can totally see why you'd want to know what the situation is. And putting monitoring wells in for a couple of years is an obvious thing to do if you have the ability to do so.

But this was, to use the parlance of a former Secretary of Defence, a known known. The road structure and tracks have been in place for 60+ years, and have gone through a couple of rebuilds as well. They should have known what the normal water levels would be at any given time of year, no?

Dan
Toronto, Ont.
 

crs1026

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The road structure and tracks have been in place for 60+ years, and have gone through a couple of rebuilds as well. They should have known what the normal water levels would be at any given time of year, no?

If the issue was simply that when construction began, the area was wet from a super-unusual period of rainfall and high lake levels, that would be one thing. The need to delay construction until the ground is dry and work can be done properly, I get that.

But if they actually said, we better go back and reengineer..... then their original solution was not robust and this was an "oops".

- Paul

PS - those earlier rebuilds didn't leave the TTC with a nice level track bed. As we'd been discussing back before the work began, historically this stretch has never been smooth. This rebuild was touted as improving on that.
 

smallspy

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If the issue was simply that when construction began, the area was wet from a super-unusual period of rainfall and high lake levels, that would be one thing. The need to delay construction until the ground is dry and work can be done properly, I get that.

But if they actually said, we better go back and reengineer..... then their original solution was not robust and this was an "oops".

- Paul

My understanding is that there was still standing water in the excavation in September or October. I don't know what the normal water levels are like in the area, but along the Harbourfront the water was still several feet higher than where would normally be at that time of year.

Dan
Toronto, Ont.
 

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