TTC: Flexity Streetcars Testing & Delivery (Bombardier)

[k10ery]

The fact of the matter is that you said that deliveries were slowing, when they clearly are not. That's what this argument is about. Admit that you were wrong, and move on.

Friend, that is a petty discussion that does neither of us any credit. But if you wish: I should have said: "the promised rate of increase in deliveries has slowed, and they are falling behind their announced target again". And if 4408 arrives in the next few days I will gladly post here again to acknowledge that they are still on the same slow pace as before. That sound ok?

 

[Duck]

Yay streetcars!

 

[44 North]

Yay streetcars!

TTC Streetcars 2014: Overview by calum.tsang, on Flickr

Yay indeed (I came across this awhile back, not sure if anyone had posted it here).

 

[W. K. Lis]

From TTC CEO Andy Byford's May report, at this link:

Streetcar Procurement and Implementation

Five new low-floor, accessible streetcars are operating very reliably in revenue service on the 509 Harbourfront and 510 Spadina routes.

Transfer of technology and manufacturing from Europe to North America, including Mexico, has led to quality, design, and process issues that have caused significant delays in new car shipments from the Carbuilder.

The TTC continues to work with Bombardier to expedite deliveries while ensuring that all quality and safety objectives are met. The most recent car (4406) began customer service on April 1, 2015. Final acceptance of the next vehicle (4407) is anticipated for mid-May 2015. The following vehicle (4408) is undergoing in-plant testing for delivery. Production in Thunder Bay continues to be impacted beyond car 4408 due to the supply chain and production issues.

Bombardier is currently more than 50 new streetcars behind schedule from the approved contract schedule. The TTC received a proposed recovery schedule from Bombardier on February 19, 2015. Further to discussions with TTC staff, a revised schedule was issued April 30, 2015. Bombardier has committed to completing the delivery of 30 new streetcars by year end 2015, and completion of the base contract order of 204 new streetcars by 2019.

At the request of TTC staff, Bombardier has been submitting detailed documentation to support their accelerated schedule and recovery plan. The information requested includes a detailed production schedule, quality control improvement initiatives, commitments in writing from parts suppliers, and details on production equipment improvements for both of their plants in Thunder Bay and Mexico. The proposed revised schedule will be considered upon acceptance of the recovery plan and negotiation of commercial terms in accordance with the contract.

A detailed report on the history of the contract with Bombardier, present status, and moving forward plans will be the subject of a future TTC Board report.

Further to the points made in my last CEO Report, we continue to hold Bombardier to delivery of their revised production schedule. This commits Bombardier to a progressive ramp-up in delivery to a rate of a new vehicle every five (5) days by the end of July, such that, by year end, a total of 30 vehicles will be on property, sufficient to convert the 509 Harbourfront, 510 Spadina, and 511 Bathurst routes.

While it is disappointing that roll-out of new vehicles has been so slow, it made no sense to accept sub-optimal vehicles that would prove unreliable. Long hours of discussions with Bombardier at all levels – including CEO to CEO – have resulted in changes by the supplier to their personnel and production line and I am cautiously optimistic that Bombardier has now turned the corner.

 

[nfitz]

They talk occasionally about deliveries every 5 days, and elsewhere about 4 a month. I have to think that's one every 5 business days.

Not really much new ... though the July timeframe for 4 a month is earlier than the Fall previously discussed. I have to admit I'm doubting that given they've not quit hit one a month yet, let alone the ramp up to 2 a month, that in 2 months they'll have hit 4 a month.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

I somehow doubt that they'll deliver 30 by the end of the year.

 

[dowlingm]

It's a shame professional decorum won't let Byford say: look everyone, as far as the LFLRVs go we'll get 'em when we get 'em. Any estimate I give you will be based on Bombardier's promises which aren't worth a damn. We're just trying to get as much out of them in penalties as possible while at the same time hoping they don't go belly up from C-Series bleeding (and the impact our demands are having on their profitability in Thunder Bay).

 

[pstogios]

It's a shame professional decorum won't let Byford say: look everyone, as far as the LFLRVs go we'll get 'em when we get 'em. Any estimate I give you will be based on Bombardier's promises which aren't worth a damn. We're just trying to get as much out of them in penalties as possible while at the same time hoping they don't go belly up from C-Series bleeding (and the impact our demands are having on their profitability in Thunder Bay).

Haha!

Wouldn't it be refreshing to hear that!! Indeed, Bombardier promises aren't worth anything. Deadlines and schedules for production ramp-up aren't worth anything. This has been abundantly clear.

 

[k10ery]

It's a shame professional decorum won't let Byford say: look everyone, as far as the LFLRVs go we'll get 'em when we get 'em. Any estimate I give you will be based on Bombardier's promises which aren't worth a damn. We're just trying to get as much out of them in penalties as possible while at the same time hoping they don't go belly up from C-Series bleeding (and the impact our demands are having on their profitability in Thunder Bay).

If he were thinking that, it would be highly irresponsible of him. The delivery delays are extremely costly to Toronto, in that it reduces the capacity of our system causing overcrowding and slower travel, and it means that the investments we are making in maintaining old LRVs, in building the MSF, in track and stop improvements, and in Presto, are all going to waste. The best thing for Byford to do is to accelerate delivery as much as possible, and to use contractual penalties as an incentive to make that happen. Which is exactly what he said he is doing.

 

[drum118]

If he were thinking that, it would be highly irresponsible of him. The delivery delays are extremely costly to Toronto, in that it reduces the capacity of our system causing overcrowding and slower travel, and it means that the investments we are making in maintaining old LRVs, in building the MSF, in track and stop improvements, and in Presto, are all going to waste. The best thing for Byford to do is to accelerate delivery as much as possible, and to use contractual penalties as an incentive to make that happen. Which is exactly what he said he is doing.

Andy or the Mayor can do all the jumping up and down demands they want, but not going to do anything to get the new cars here faster than what taking place.

Until Bombardier gets its house in order and start producing 100% acceptable cars as agreed to, we will get the cars as they produce them that past TTC inspection. If the order is not delivery as per contract, then Bombardier or who every owns it at that time will have to paid the price for not living up to the contract.

I have stated this year as well in the past, I will believe the numbers once Dec 31 rolls around. Saying we will get 30 cars this year and having 30 cars are 2 different things. If we are to have 30 cars on line cone Dec 31, 25 more cars are to be ship by Dec 10. If we are to get 30 cars this year, 28 more to go. A difference of 3 cars.

Bombardier is giving longer lead times on all their orders this year world wide, regardless what it is.

If the C-Series issues gets any worse, time to start looking for another supplier.

If 30 cars are here come Dec 31, I expect 4401 & 4402 will be part of those cars since they are (supposed) to be a short turn around on them once ship back to Thunder Bay. At the same time, this will leave 174 cars to be done by Dec 31, 2019 or about 58 cars a year. Got to fit in 17 cars in 2016 for Kitchener. Don't see Bombardier full filing this order by 2019 at all.

Ordering 60 more cars at the end of 2016 or most likely first quarter of 2017 is only asking for longer delays.

 

[nfitz]

At the same time, this will leave 174 cars to be done by Dec 31, 2019 or about 58 cars a year.

174 cars over 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019 is 44 cars a year. Bombardier is starting to cut it fine, but if they can really achieve 4 vehicles a month, they have a chance still of meeting 2019.

 

[drum118]

174 cars over 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019 is 44 cars a year. Bombardier is starting to cut it fine, but if they can really achieve 4 vehicles a month, they have a chance still of meeting 2019.

Lets do the math again as I was dividing by 3, not 4:

2016: 31 cars for TTC and 17 for Kitchener. Expect some 2015 cars in this year.

2017-18: 56 cars/yr

2019: 31 for TTC and 17? for Metrolinx

To do Metrolinx order only 2020-22, that 60+ cars a year and then you got to add 35 Mississauga cars.

What every way I look at it, not going to make 2019 and where do you put TTC extra 60 cars in the 20-22 time frame along with the rest. Hamilton will have to come into play as well.

Best thing for Mississauga and Hamilton, go to the market at this time.

 

[nfitz]

Lets do the math again as I was dividing by 3, not 4:

2016: 31 cars for TTC and 17 for Kitchener. Expect some 2015 cars in this year.

2017-18: 56 cars/yr

2019: 31 for TTC and 17? for Metrolinx

To do Metrolinx order only 2020-22, that 60+ cars a year and then you got to add 35 Mississauga cars.

What every way I look at it, not going to make 2019 and where do you put TTC extra 60 cars in the 20-22 time frame along with the rest. Hamilton will have to come into play as well.

They've always planned to do about 6 cars a months looking at the original announcement. 3 for TTC and 3 for Metrolinx. They've got lucky with the Metrolinx delays, and can easily do 4 TTC cars and 2 for Metrolinx. This should given them capaibilty of building by the end of 2020 (if they meet the 30 in 2015) 270 TTC cars and 120 Metrolinx cars.

I don't think they need 120 Metrolinx cars by end of 2020 with only Waterloo and Eglinton needing cars by then. I also expect Eglinton will slip once the financial closure is completed and they announce the agreed upon schedule.

Don't forget by end of 2015 they'll have finished TR production, which has been churning out an average of about 90 cars a year for the last 3 years.

 

[drum118]

They've always planned to do about 6 cars a months looking at the original announcement. 3 for TTC and 3 for Metrolinx. They've got lucky with the Metrolinx delays, and can easily do 4 TTC cars and 2 for Metrolinx. This should given them capaibilty of building by the end of 2020 (if they meet the 30 in 2015) 270 TTC cars and 120 Metrolinx cars.

I don't think they need 120 Metrolinx cars by end of 2020 with only Waterloo and Eglinton needing cars by then. I also expect Eglinton will slip once the financial closure is completed and they announce the agreed upon schedule.

Don't forget by end of 2015 they'll have finished TR production, which has been churning out an average of about 90 cars a year for the last 3 years.

Where would TTC be today if the Sheppard line didn't get kill like it has so far? If Sheppard went ahead as plan, it could be still short equipment today.

The only thing keeping Thunder Bay alive today has been TTC & GO equipment. There been the odd coach here and there for the US, but not like it used to be. Florida will order a few more cars, but the rest are going off shore and US built.

Metrolinx will want to see cars arriving in 2019 so the fleet is on hand for 2022 opening date if the date remain hard. I am sure Metrolinx is going to hold the hard opening date, as they have a lot ridding on it. We will have to sit back and wait.

As for the TR line, depending on the jigs setup and the depending order from TTC for more trains, how much will that line see the new cars? As for TR1, that a few years off and could be a different setup all together, as it will be a 7 car train.

 

[Forgotten]

Today marks the first anniversary of the shipment of production car 1 from Thunder Bay. Bombardier has delivered 6 in total, averaging about 65.6 days between shipments. It has been 37 days since the last shipment.

At the lower rate of production, the contract will be fulfilled in full in approximately 35.6 years or sometime in early 2056. However, using the recently turbocharged 38 days between shipments as a guideline, contract fulfillment will occur in approximately 20.6 years or sometime in early 2036.

As with all things, the truth likely lies somewhere in between.

If the next one is not shipped by tomorrow, I will update my next projection accordingly.