TTC: Flexity Streetcars Testing & Delivery (Bombardier)

[k10ery]

Deliveries are generally accelerating. How is it that not ramping up? The shortest gap between car deliveries so far is 35 days.

Perhaps testing of 4408 (which we know was on the test track in Thunder Bay over a month ago) found a problem? They don't just test them for their entertainment.

You seem like such an extreme apologist for TTC, it's mystifying to me.

Deliveries have not been accelerating since 4405 came, they are slowing down. Under the revised time line they were to be delivering 2 a month beginning in March. But since March 1, 10 weeks ago, only 2 have been delivered. Now 4408 is missing in action.

Byford reached out to the media to reannounce that Bombardier was having problems, even though there was no news in his statements. Why would he doing this unless he was trying to light a fire under somebody?

Doesn't it seem obvious to you, the most reasonable guess is that Bombardier has not fixed its problems, or some new problems have cropped up now?

 

[nfitz]

You seem like such an extreme apologist for TTC, it's mystifying to me.

I'M an extreme apologist for TTC? ME! Other's comment I complain too much about them. Where am I apologizing for TTC?

A poster made factually incorrect statements about deliveries. I pointed out the factual errors. Bombardier has screwed up badly on this, and TTC has also made mistakes.

How does this make me an apologist?

Deliveries have not been accelerating since 4405 came, they are slowing down.

4404 arrived 2 months after the strike. 4405 was delivered 90 days after 4404. 4406 was delivered 37 days after 4405. 4407 was delivered 35 days after 4406. 4407 was delivered 29 days ago.

Can you explain to me how this is slowing down?

The data show that deliveries are not slowing down, but are instead speeding up.

Perhaps you should do some fact checking before you make such utterly wrong accusations.

 

[doady]

Blaming the TTC for the Bombardier's delays in delivering the new streetcars is like blaming a rape victim for dressing immodestly. To blame the victim is just douchebaggery.

 

[junctionist]

The TTC took a lot of precautions with the order, for instance requiring that every streetcar pass its own testing before taking ownership.

 

[pstogios]

4404 arrived 2 months after the strike. 4405 was delivered 90 days after 4404. 4406 was delivered 37 days after 4405. 4407 was delivered 35 days after 4406. 4407 was delivered 29 days ago.

There was that ramp up for sure after 4405. Since then, zero statistically real ramp up. 37, 35 and 29 (now 30 after today) are pretty much the same. Just watch--4408 won't be delivered until at least 35 days.
So we should consider this <1/month rate to be the current delivery rate from Bombardier.
And that's NOT NEARLY good enough.

On a different note: I saw 4405 on College St today and its notification sign said "training car." So now TTC has yet another training car? What is going on with 4401 and 4402 which were already assigned as training cars?

 

[nfitz]

Just watch--4408 won't be delivered until at least 35 days.

That's pretty much a given. Both flatcars they've used so far are parked in Thunder Bay. Though that there are now 2 flatcars is perhaps a good sign.

So we should consider this <1/month rate to be the current delivery rate from Bombardier.
And that's NOT NEARLY good enough.

It isn't good enough. It needs to improve.

On a different note: I saw 4405 on College St today and its notification sign said "training car." So now TTC has yet another training car? What is going on with 4401 and 4402 which were already assigned as training cars?

All the cars are used from time-to-time as training cars. There was a point on the weekend, when all 6 cars were in service. Both 4401 and 4402 are still in Toronto also being used as training cars, as far as I know.

 

[k10ery]

I'M an extreme apologist for TTC? ME! Other's comment I complain too much about them. Where am I apologizing for TTC?

A poster made factually incorrect statements about deliveries. I pointed out the factual errors. Bombardier has screwed up badly on this, and TTC has also made mistakes.

How does this make me an apologist?

4404 arrived 2 months after the strike. 4405 was delivered 90 days after 4404. 4406 was delivered 37 days after 4405. 4407 was delivered 35 days after 4406. 4407 was delivered 29 days ago.

Can you explain to me how this is slowing down?

The data show that deliveries are not slowing down, but are instead speeding up.

Perhaps you should do some fact checking before you make such utterly wrong accusations.

It's hilarious that you want to argue about such minor things. It does you not credit and it wins you no friends. I meant that the acceleration of deliveries has come to an end since 4405. And it may well now be reversing. And they are nowhere near the revised schedule of two a month beginning in March. In fact, in the 82 days since March 1 they have delivered just 2 vehicles. If they were on the new schedule it would be 5 or 6 in that length of time! Pretending things are on track is just delusional.

 

[nfitz]

It's hilarious that you want to argue about such minor things.

You stated point blank that deliveries were slowing. The truth is that they have (so far) been accelerating.

I'm amused that you only find it hilarious when you are completely wrong, and then your response is, instead of just saying "Oops, I guess I'm completely wrong" to then start belittling the person who has pointed out you're are completely wrong. This should be telling you something.

Pretending things are on track is just delusional.

They aren't on track. No one has said they are on track. Turning me saying that deliveries haven't been slowing into me saying they are on track is delusional.

 

[Forgotten]

It's hilarious that you want to argue about such minor things. It does you not credit and it wins you no friends. I meant that the acceleration of deliveries has come to an end since 4405. And it may well now be reversing. And they are nowhere near the revised schedule of two a month beginning in March. In fact, in the 82 days since March 1 they have delivered just 2 vehicles. If they were on the new schedule it would be 5 or 6 in that length of time! Pretending things are on track is just delusional.

His pedantry is fully justified because he is correct.

Based on the original rate of work being done in Thunder Bay, my estimates in 2014 put the fulfillment date of the contract in the late 2050s. Since then Bombardier has massively accelerated their vehicle manufacturing facilities and based on current work rates in Thunder Bay, my estimates now put the target date in the early 2040s.

Shaving more than one third off the expected schedule is an enormous change and executives should be patting themselves on the back for a job well done.

Timing the fulfillment of their contractual obligations to coincide with the first of these machines getting sent to a Michigan garbage field and the issuance of the next RFP isn't just an ingenious move but it just plain makes good business sense. What better advertisement of a job well done is there than the fresh memory of seeing the last set of wheels rolling off the assembly line in Thunder Bay?

I'm sure they will be reaping huge rewards ($tock option$) for this in the near future. I have a feeling they're going to be the envy of their C-level friends on Bay Street. I rate BBD a strong buy.

 

[44 North]

You stated point blank that deliveries were slowing. The truth is that they have (so far) been accelerating.

I'm amused that you only find it hilarious when you are completely wrong, and then your response is, instead of just saying "Oops, I guess I'm completely wrong" to then start belittling the person who has pointed out you're are completely wrong.

That's funny you of all people write that. I've proven you wrong in every one of the long-winded debates you tried to drag me into. But instead of writing what you claim should be written by those in the wrong - i.e "Oops, I guess I'm completely wrong" - you instead reverted to "belittling" insults. Or editing your comments days after writing them to somehow absolve yourself of being wrong in the first place. I'm still waiting on quite a few of these 'oops, I'm completely wrongs'. But I won't hold my breath.

 

[k10ery]

You stated point blank that deliveries were slowing. The truth is that they have (so far) been accelerating.

I'm amused that you only find it hilarious when you are completely wrong, and then your response is, instead of just saying "Oops, I guess I'm completely wrong" to then start belittling the person who has pointed out you're are completely wrong. This should be telling you something.

They aren't on track. No one has said they are on track. Turning me saying that deliveries haven't been slowing into me saying they are on track is delusional.

Could we change your screen name to Badger?

All this verbal son et lumiere still does not disguise the fact they are supposed to be delivering two a month since March. You're not worried apparently. But you can believe Byford is, that's why he spoke to the media last week.

Below is a sampling of your devil may care posts that so "deluded" me. On second thought, let's change your screen name to Pollyanna.

Good grief, really?

Just about every vehicle in history as far as I can tell has had production ramp-up problems. These vehicles seem to always be in service. How odd ...

If they do ever ramp up to the promised 4 a month, they have a lot of time still to delivery all 204 cars by end of 2019.

Perhaps testing of 4408 (which we know was on the test track in Thunder Bay over a month ago) found a problem? They don't just test them for their entertainment.

 

[k10ery]

LOL Forgotten. (Literally!) That was a good one.

 

[nfitz]

All this verbal son et lumiere still does not disguise the fact they are supposed to be delivering two a month since March. You're not worried apparently. But you can believe Byford is, that's why he spoke to the media last week.

Two a month since April according to the material released by TTC in February.

I think everyone is concerned. But that doesn't justify claiming that deliveries have been slowing, when they have only accelerated since the strike to date. They may well slow. They haven't yet.

I have no doubt they'll achieve 2 a month by the fall, and 4 a month sometime in 2016 (by which point they'll no longer be churning out 9-10 TR cars per month). That should allow full delivery by the end of 2019.

Sure, I'm more positive than many. Glass half full, not half empty. But surely that's better than someone here who said that they hope they miss the 2019 target, out of some misguided desire to see vengeance.

 

[Duck]

I had a very painful discussion with a rather dapper senior gentleman a few years ago when the mockup was at Hillcrest.

Gentleman: "My god, look at that! A rubber belt to open and close the door! That will never last."
Me: "Actually sir, that's a steel-core toothed timing belt. It has steel cords running through it for strength. We use them all the time in the automation industry, they're super robust and will last forever."
Gentleman: "That's fantastic. Does this train hover? I don't see any wheels so it is probably a hover train. Like all the trains in France do. They all hover."

My friends just slowly backed away watching my face twitch.

 

[wopchop]

It's hilarious that you want to argue about such minor things. It does you not credit and it wins you no friends. I meant that the acceleration of deliveries has come to an end since 4405. And it may well now be reversing. And they are nowhere near the revised schedule of two a month beginning in March. In fact, in the 82 days since March 1 they have delivered just 2 vehicles. If they were on the new schedule it would be 5 or 6 in that length of time! Pretending things are on track is just delusional.

The fact of the matter is that you said that deliveries were slowing, when they clearly are not. That's what this argument is about. Admit that you were wrong, and move on.