Rainforest
Senior Member
I actually thought my costs were quite generous. No a single bit of tunnel is being constructed - and none of the stations are especially complex in terms of integration with multiple bus routes, RER, etc. - with the exception of STC, which is an existing station requiring only a bit of refurbishment.
This one seems low-balled: $0.8M Throncliffe to Sherbourne (6km ,1 station). That's 133 million per km, and we can hardly build at-grade LRT for that cost.
But that section is not in Phase 1, therefore might be less relevant.
- From the "EGLINTON CROSSTOWN RAPID TRANSIT BENEFITS CASE" (the combined SRT/ECLRT), the demand was about 13k (ppdph). I can assume this will be similar for this direct Scarborough Line. Let's bump this to 15k for 2041 demand.
- From the "Ontario Line Initial Business Case", the demand is 20k (ppdph).
- Thus, 2041 demand is 35k.
- Using my 120m stations (20% larger than that assumed for the Ontario Line - the capacity would be 36k.
The total demand might be less than 20k + 15k. Of those 15k using the new Scarborough line, some are already counted as OL riders. In the old scenario, they would transfer from Line 2 at Pape, while in the new scenario, they will transfer at Thorncliffe from the new Scarborough line. So, that part should work.
I almost think no matter what you do, two branches would swamp the Downtown portion of the Ontario Line - especially if you think about extending Ontario Line farther north. I would rather have redundancy with multiple routes, compared to a single line that carries 40k+
My plan is that this branching is an interim measure - with the new Thorncliffe to Sherbourne to King portion being complete by the early 2040's, or in conjunction with extension of the Ontario Line to Fairview Mall (or Seneca).
While redundancy adds reliability, it adds costs as well. Not sure what is easier to fund, one 40k line or two 25-30k lines, but the second option will certainly cost more at the end. Sort of a trade-off.