Transit City Plan

[nfitz]

On the bright side, it will free up a a lot of $ in the next 3-4 year for transit projects in 905, GO Transit, and other regions.

It's not like the money can be spent straight away on subways in Toronto ... there will have to be an entire environmental assessment and design phase first. It took us almost 4 years to get to this point; so there won't be any heavy-duty spending until 2015 or so.

 

[Asterix]

There were numerous third party consultations on the Eglinton corridor which identified ridership projections rivalling the Bloor line. Most were posted on this blog.

You can't move Bloor level loads on an Eglinton subway because you've got nowhere for them to go. The LRT line would be capable of handling in the neighbourhood of 10,000 per hour, well above the projected demand forecast by transit experts. Oh wait, you don't like that outcome? Ok, just accuse the experts of fudging the numbers because you know more than they do.

The contracts are simple to sort out.. Here are the major ones I've identified.

Any time anyone says anything involving a lot of money is "simple", my Spidey sense tells me they don't know what they are talking about.

1)The Flexity trams for Transit City... Well, nothing is being built yet, and many Ontario towns are embarking on major LRT projects.. Ottawa, Kitchener, Waterloo, Hamilton, just to name a few... Ontario can easily send those cars to those cities sans penalties.

Nothing being built - if you don't count the Sheppard work. Have you actually looked at the LRT vehicle contracts and Metrolinx funding plans/arrangements for those listed cities to see if they can 'easily' and 'sans penalties' switch the TC contract to them? If I was a manufacturer with a legal contract who is now being told that instead of wanting delivery in 2015 (and therefore providing work for my employees and money for my bank account) they are now to be delivered sporadically out to 2020 or beyond (if at all), then I might want to raise the issue of getting some kind of compensation for this change of contract.

2) The TBM for Eglinton.. Well under Ford we'll be building subways in Scarborough and possibly under Eglinton so it doesn't really matter where it goes, right?

One or the other, you don't get both (unless you have a money printing press in your basement). And again, you are now unilaterally changing the timing of the contract because instead of starting Eglinton tunneling in the next couple of years, you now won't be needing your TBM until at least 2015, or 2020, or maybe never (depending on how long it takes you to go through all the planning and designing and changing of both multiple times until you are actually ready to start the work).

4) The only money spent on Transit City has been consulting. This amounts to a few million, something the city throws at bullshit projects all the time. I think Ford AND the city can swallow this without feeling too sour about it.

I'm sure your estimate of only "a few million" having been spent on TC is more accurate than the numbers reported by the TTC, Metrolinx or the province who talk of numbers over one hundred million dollars (although I guess technically, one hundred still qualifies as "a few"). If you (and Ford) think it is no big deal to saddle the Toronto taxpayers with over one hundred million dollars in costs for absolutely no gain (since you are basically going back to the drawing board), then I'd like to ask why anyone would get themselves into a lather about a $12,000 retirement party and why we need to worry about spending on council staplers.

 

[gweed123]

On the bright side, it will free up a a lot of $ in the next 3-4 year for transit projects in 905, GO Transit, and other regions.

It's not like the money can be spent straight away on subways in Toronto ... there will have to be an entire environmental assessment and design phase first. It took us almost 4 years to get to this point; so there won't be any heavy-duty spending until 2015 or so.

Unless of couse some of the money goes to projects that have already been planned, EA approved, and had preliminary engineering done on them (Sheppard to Vic Park for example). That small extension is realistically the only one that could be completed within Ford's 4 year term.

 

[SlickFranky]

Why would Ford or Stintz push for ECLRT and SLRT changes? I can see the at-grade portions gettings chopped, but upgrading the grade-separated lines to subway?...pure gravy! This administration's primary cause is supposed to be efficient spending.

 

[gweed123]

Why would Ford or Stintz push for ECLRT and SLRT changes? I can see the at-grade portions gettings chopped, but upgrading the grade-separated lines to subway?...pure gravy! This administration's primary cause is supposed to be efficient spending.

I don't think the Eglinton tunneled portion will be upgraded to subway. And the SRT to subway change will not be using the same corridor. I think Ford only showed it using the SRT corridor because all his team was able to do was photoshop a different colour onto the SRT line. Using the SRT corridor for a subway makes little to no sense.

And I don't think a subway extension to STC is gravy. If ANY of the TC projects have subway-level demand, it's the Kennedy-STC route. No doubt in my mind that this would be a profitable subway corridor.

 

[SlickFranky]

I don't think the Eglinton tunneled portion will be upgraded to subway. And the SRT to subway change will not be using the same corridor. I think Ford only showed it using the SRT corridor because all his team was able to do was photoshop a different colour onto the SRT line. Using the SRT corridor for a subway makes little to no sense.

And I don't think a subway extension to STC is gravy. If ANY of the TC projects have subway-level demand, it's the Kennedy-STC route. No doubt in my mind that this would be a profitable subway corridor.

I never said anything about alignment...it's hardly relevant. Or that the subway isn't justifiable...that's certainly arguable. But it's not critical, and it costs money. AKA gravy!

 

[Asterix]

AKA gravy!

To say nothing of it actually being a train!

 

[gweed123]

I never said anything about alignment...it's hardly relevant. Or that the subway isn't justifiable...that's certainly arguable. But it's not critical, and it costs money. AKA gravy!

As a said earlier, taking the funds from the eastern at-grade portion of Eglinton would make it cost very little more than what has already been allocated. It's not gravy if you're spending the same amount of money that you were going to spend before!

EDIT: Just doing the quick math, assuming $70 million/km for the eastern at-grade portion of Eglinton, it works out to being roughly $450 million. That's only a $150 million shortfall for funding the subway extension to STC. Just to pit it in perspective, that difference is less than 2% of the total amount of funding already allocated for transit projects in Toronto. Is that 2% really worth the cries of "OMG! It's gravy!"? Hardly.

 

[nfitz]

Unless of couse some of the money goes to projects that have already been planned, EA approved, and had preliminary engineering done on them (Sheppard to Vic Park for example). That small extension is realistically the only one that could be completed within Ford's 4 year term.

It would still require a new class EA - there's a whole host of environmental issues that have changed since it was approved; remember the Spadina extension EA was of a similar vintage, and it was also redone.

There's certainly a half-billion in next years Metrolinx budget that can't be used. The obvious solution is to spend it to accelerate VIVA.

 

[SlickFranky]

Just doing the quick math, assuming $70 million/km for the eastern at-grade portion of Eglinton, it works out to being roughly $450 million. That's only a $150 million shortfall for funding the subway extension to STC. Just to pit it in perspective, that difference is less than 2% of the total amount of funding already allocated for transit projects in Toronto. Is that 2% really worth the cries of "OMG! It's gravy!"? Hardly.

To Ford? Yes, that's the hugest gravy boat the world has ever seen! That's 12500 retirement parties!

 

[gweed123]

It would still require a new class EA - there's a whole host of environmental issues that have changed since it was approved; remember the Spadina extension EA was of a similar vintage, and it was also redone.

There's certainly a half-billion in next years Metrolinx budget that can't be used. The obvious solution is to spend it to accelerate VIVA.

I was not aware that Spadina's EA was also redone. I was under the assumption that the existing EA was modified, not restarted from scratch. I realize that the Sheppard to VP EA would not be able to be taken off the shelf, dusted off, and approved, but I was under the assumption that the majority of it was still valid, and that it would likely only need a 6 month period (or less) to be updated, and then it was good to go. If you wanted to accelerate the process further, theoretically you could update the preliminary engineering at the same time.

 

[rbt]

Unless of couse some of the money goes to projects that have already been planned, EA approved, and had preliminary engineering done on them (Sheppard to Vic Park for example). That small extension is realistically the only one that could be completed within Ford's 4 year term.

I believe that is extremely optimistic. Any new plan, not already well underway for engineering and with a complete EA (Sheppard as subway does NOT have a valid complete EA; it will need to be reassessed) will take quite a bit of time. Throw in a provincial election in the middle which will steal a minimum 6 months from a negotiation process (McGuinty may promise, but the new government will need to ratify the spending in their first budget).

If Hudak wins and is in favour of the subway, we can still expect a substantial overhaul of Metrolinx that will cause a years delay.

Best case for Ford is a late 2013 start for meaningful construction. Worst case is the Ontario economy sinks further and the provincial election is entirely about debt; causing an immediate cancellation of all transit expansion not already well underway (Spadina line is the only safe one).

 

[gweed123]

To Ford? Yes, that's the hugest gravy boat the world has ever seen! That's 12500 retirement parties!

Yet he would have no problem throwing away hundreds of millions in contracts that have already been awarded and money that has already been spent on planning? I find that rather hard to believe. If all that's standing in his way from having a subway to STC is $150 million, I'm sure he'd find a way to justify spending it.

If it was $150 million standing in the way of an LRT project, he'd let it die on the table. But a subway project? I'd put money on the fact that he'd find whatever resources he could to come up with that money, especially if it means come next election he can say that he delivered a subway to Scarborough.

 

[MetroMan]

gweed: Pardon my being blunt, but you must be extraordinarily naïve to think that Ford or anybody could deliver a subway to Scarborough in 4 years. Planning alone will take that long.

 

[gweed123]

I believe that is extremely optimistic. Any new plan, not already well underway for engineering and with a complete EA (Sheppard as subway does NOT have a valid complete EA; it will need to be reassessed) will take quite a bit of time. Throw in a provincial election in the middle which will steal a minimum 6 months from a negotiation process (McGuinty may promise, but the new government will need to ratify the spending in their first budget).

If Hudak wins and is in favour of the subway, we can still expect a substantial overhaul of Metrolinx that will cause a years delay.

Best case for Ford is a late 2013 start for meaningful construction. Worst case is the Ontario economy sinks further and the provincial election is entirely about debt; causing an immediate cancellation of all transit expansion not already well underway (Spadina line is the only safe one).

I think it's quite realistic. Updating the EA will certainly not take a year. It'll likely be in the neighbourhood of 6 months. As I said earlier, it's not like the engineers will be sitting there twiddling their thumbs during that. The preliminary engineering work that was done in the early 2000s can also be updated during that period.

And with the election, I really don't think a new provincial government would touch Sheppard. Why? Because there's federal dollars in there too. The province knows how finicky the feds are with giving money for infrastructure projects (just look at the Spadina extension, the money wasn't delivered for nearly 2 years after it was "announced"). The province wouldn't dare mess with a project that the feds have their hand in, especially if they want to go back to them in a few years for more money for more projects. The projects that are only provincially funded I think are fair game, but I don't think Sheppard is.

If there is a delay, it may not be open in time for the next municipal election, but it would certainly be past the point of no return.