Mississauga Hurontario-Main Line 10 LRT | ?m | ?s | Metrolinx

[ShonTron]

an article focused not on the route but questioning where the riders are.

http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/201...tml?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

This article is full of shit. The Star should pull it.

San Grewal claims 15,000 PPHPD, the maximum capacity in the staff reports (using three-car trains) is 7,200 PPHPD. And comparing the last three kilometres of a fully funded LRT to a $1B (2000 $) Sheppard Subway is disingenuous.

http://www.brampton.ca/EN/City-Hall/meetings-agendas/PDD Committee 2010/20150622pis_H10.pdf

 

[andrewpmk]

perhaps....but the other extreme is to assume (as the ML study did) that simply changing from bus to LRT will create a ten-fold increase in the transit share of trips and then when that ten-fold increase produces numbers that can be handled by BRT.....recommend spending way more building a LRT.

View attachment 51012 View attachment 51013

Admittedly, the ridership will probably be a lot higher in Mississauga. The section between Square One and Matheson has the highest amount of bus traffic (routes 19, 103 and 502 overlap here). The section in Brampton and the section between the QEW and Port Credit are less busy, but are important from a network connectivity perspective. Remember that once GO gets electrified, there will be a lot of traffic going to the GO stations. Currently, there is rush hour only GO service to Brampton and 30 minute service to Port Credit, hence there are few bus riders going to the GO stations and lower ridership.

 

[TOareaFan]

Admittedly, the ridership will probably be a lot higher in Mississauga. The section between Square One and Matheson has the highest amount of bus traffic (routes 19, 103 and 502 overlap here). The section in Brampton and the section between the QEW and Port Credit are less busy, but are important from a network connectivity perspective. Remember that once GO gets electrified, there will be a lot of traffic going to the GO stations. Currently, there is rush hour only GO service to Brampton and 30 minute service to Port Credit, hence there are few bus riders going to the GO stations and lower ridership.

all of those are factored into their ridership projections...all I am saying is that even with the most optimistic projections about modal share, intensification and "network build"...they came up with a ridership projection that they show themselves is well within BRT capability....they acknowledge that and then said lets build LRT anyway.

Anyway, we are getting dangerously close to re-hashing the long debates we had about this several years ago....and I don't want to do that (they are in the thread if anyone wants to read them)....I just posted those two graphics to show that even if Grewal was pessimistic to the extreme in his article, ML was at the far optimistic end of the spectrum......and if the truth lies somewhere between, then you are going to see a LRT that is very, very, underused.

As for the GO train in Brampton.......anyone that was planning to use transit to get there can (and some, like me, do) but the limited length of this LRT improves travel time to the station by, what, a minute over the current buses for a very, very few people. Anyone who is saying "I would use transit to get to GO if it got me there in 5 minutes instead of 6" is just lying....flat out.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

If Brampton does not want this or can't decide? Why waste our time? Pull the funding and build this to Steeles.

 

[nfitz]

If Brampton does not want this or can't decide? Why waste our time? Pull the funding and build this to Steeles.

Or move it to somewhere else with an approved EA. Sheppard East. Scarborough-Malvern. Both of which have much higher forecast ridership.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Or move it to somewhere else with an approved EA. Sheppard East. Scarborough-Malvern. Both of which have much higher forecast ridership.

Or just use the money for track improvements in Brampton for all day go service. Anything is better than this.

 

[doady]

I think people are asking the wrong questions. Instead of whether Brampton has the ridership to justify LRT, we should ask whether even Mississauga has the ridership to justify LRT.

Consider 19 Hurontario's 20k boardings per weekday. 20k is pathetic by TTC standards. There are TTC bus routes with over 40k. Why can't Hurontario be the same? Clearly, buses are able to easily handle the ridership of Hurontario. LRT is not needed on Hurontario any more than it is needed on Ossington Ave.

Highest ridership bus routes, 2010-2012

32 Eglinton West 48,684
35 Jane 45,699
36 Finch West 43,952
39 Finch West 41,434
29 Dufferin 39,721
54 Lawrence East 36,277
60 Steeles West 29,819
34 Eglinton East 29,501
53 Steeles East 28,050
85 Sheppard East 27,146
95 York Mills 27,709
96 Wilson 27,700
24 Victoria Park 24,731
41 Keele 24,592
7 Bathurst 24,262
102 Markham Rd 24,152
52 Lawrence West 23,036
63 Ossington 22,694
116 Morningside 22,285
Viva Blue 21,547
165 Weston Rd North 21,361
19 Hurontario 20,554
196 York University Rocket 20,199

http://dmg.utoronto.ca/pdf/tts/2011/validation2011.pdf

(Note, some TTC numbers are from 2010, in the midst of recession, so they should be even higher. 19 Hurontario's ridership is from 2012 so it is inflated here.)

If you are a Toronto resident, you should ask why the province is providing full funding for an LRT line in Mississauga when there are 20 TTC bus routes that have more ridership.

If you are a Mississauga, you should ask if you'd really rather have an LRT to Brampton instead of Toronto.

 

[TOareaFan]

^the peak demand chart from their studies earlier was for the whole line not just the Brampton portion and, yes, even after some pretty aggressive assumptions about transit modal split inreases...they are comfortably in BRT territory.

 

[nfitz]

I think people are asking the wrong questions. Instead of whether Brampton has the ridership to justify LRT, we should ask whether even Mississauga has the ridership to justify LRT.

Consider 19 Hurontario's 20k boardings per weekday. 20k is pathetic by TTC standards. There are TTC bus routes with over 40k. Why can't Hurontario be the same? Clearly, buses are able to easily handle the ridership of Hurontario. LRT is not needed on Hurontario any more than it is needed on Ossington Ave.

Why are you just looking at 19? Last time I used MiWay down Hurontario I took a 103 Express. There's also frequent BiWay (or whatever they call it) services down Hurontario to Square One.

I'm surprised that 19 is over 20,000 given all the other faster buses along that corridor!

 

[TOareaFan]

Why are you just looking at 19? Last time I used MiWay down Hurontario I took a 103 Express. There's also frequent BiWay (or whatever they call it) services down Hurontario to Square One.

I'm surprised that 19 is over 20,000 given all the other faster buses along that corridor!

I always use the 103....it bypasses SQ1 and allows me to connect to my Brampton Transit (no such thing as BiWay since dylex closed them down number 7 bus at Derry and I can shoot straight up kennedy to my house.

It is reasonably quick but, honestly, never carrying very many people....my sample size of rides is too small to conclude anything but every time I use it I am surprised how comfortable vacant it is for an express bus.

 

[howl]

an article focused not on the route but questioning where the riders are.

http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/201...tml?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

One of the major points of the LRT is to unlock new development potential. Right now you can't build too many high density building on one suburban location because it causes traffic chaos. The LRT will allow significant new developments to be contemplated on the Downtown core and at Steeles. You can't build-up the ridership first and then create the transit - people won't buy units if the transit isn't there. You have to build the transit first, then the development comes.

 

[salsa]

Why are you just looking at 19? Last time I used MiWay down Hurontario I took a 103 Express. There's also frequent BiWay (or whatever they call it) services down Hurontario to Square One.

There's also the frequent Brampton Transit 502 Main route that goes mostly through Mississauga.

 

[TOareaFan]

There's also the frequent Brampton Transit 502 Main route that goes mostly through Mississauga.

Despite being told before there is no such thing as Biway ( )....when Nfitz refers to that he does mean Brampton Transit...the 2 and the 502 both go into Mississauga via Main

But instead of trying to count heads on the various routes. Why not just look at the HMLRT case studies.....the one that takes current ridership.....considers all of the intensification possibilities into account, takes into account the relative attractiveness of LRT over bus, and takes the modal split of various sections of the route (which are mostly sub 10% for transit) and inflates them all to around 70% and from that projects the ridership of the new LRT......and even at peak gets a number that easily fits into what a full BRT can handle.

 

[mdrejhon]

LRT is not needed on Hurontario any more than it is needed on Ossington Ave.

Ossington Ave does not bisect 3 GO train routes like Hurontario does.

Consider that not too long after GO RER, electricifation will probably extend to Brampton from Bramalea. So it would be a major connector to a route that had 2-way all-day 15-min service, including an airport station. That's why Hurontario won -- it completes connections to 3 GO stations. Consider that thanks to the LRT, Brampton is going to eventually have a quick airport connection (e.g. the proposed RER Woodbine/Pearson station -- which now shows up in one of the SmartTrack alternate routes too -- and when RER is extended to Bramalea -- when the freight railroad ownership roadblock is solved). Also, when Kitchener 2-way service begins someday (long-term plan) we can finally have a practical Mississauga-Kitchener daily rapid transit commute (both directions), not too different from an Oshawa-to-Toronto commute, or Burlington-to-Toronto commute. Hurontario is a key LRT route that has a bias factor that goes beyond the passenger count.

Although there seems to be other better funding for the Hurontario, one has to realize that we're projecting 2025 passenger traffic, not for 2010 passenger traffic. Hurontario is pretty high up there, when you account for the gridding/expansion potential of the GTHA transit network.

This easily increases Hurontario traffic through Brampton, especially if the LRT extends a little bit northwards, too.

We're looking at 2025 projected ridership, not 2010.

 

[nfitz]

Ossington Ave does not bisect 3 GO train routes like Hurontario does.

Good point. Ossington (or at least the Ossington Bus) bisects 6 GO Train Routes. Niagara Falls, West Harbour, and Hamilton Centre at Exihibition (one block south from the Ossington bus stop at Atlantic/Liberty. And then the Milton, Barrie, and Kitchener lines which it crosses twice (at King and Strachan). Ossington also crosses the Bloor-Danforth line, the Yonge line, the Universtiy line, and the proposed GO line that would pass through Summerhill station! Sounds to me that converting the Ossington bus to LRT might get better use, and provide more connectivity!