Does anyone see office buildings breaking ground in next 10 years?
Yes; I do think so; however, I think it will be mostly the more 'boutique', mass timber/loft spaces as well as research intensive spaces (more institutional but can be hybrid commercial.
I wouldn't completely rule out one of the big tower proposals coming forward toward the end of the decade; but I don't see it being much more than that.
I was reading somewhere today that the projected new office demand in Toronto for next 10 years is 15 million sq. ft. and there is already 40 million sq. ft. in pipeline.
Probably the Altus study. I think they slightly over reached on their conclusions, myself. (fine group, I would simply make some different assumptions than they did).
Be that as it may, there is no question that most large-scale projects will be on hold for a few years; and what I expect to see is a lot of B and C class space converted/redeveloped as residential.
That will shrink the surplus substantially.
But it will take a few years.
Guaranteed a significant portion of this will turn to residential.
Agreed.
I think the City is in for a big change in terms of how it plans for commercial space -- dropping replacement requirements, etc.
Yes, I think, but only for Class B and C space; I don't think you'll see the requirement out right waived for Class A space, nor should you.
Though there might be some flexibility on that depending on the mix of use changes (retail/institutional/hotel, purpose-built rental)
