East Harbour | 214.2m | 65s | Cadillac Fairview | Adamson

Northern Light

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The Globe last week said Toronto overall is at 15% vacancy.

I think a lot of big companies are going to be reducing their office space over the next few years to reflect more work from home as their leases expire, but Toronto is generally booming in terms of jobs. I bet CF will be better than most of us at predicting future demand :)

Suburban vacancy and AA and lesser classed spaces are also higher vacancy.

Good quality, good location is still doing quite well.
 

innsertnamehere

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yes, but even downtown has decent vacancies. Suburban office is more like 20% vacant and downtown 10%, working out to a 15% average. Even 10% isn't particularly healthy.

There is probably still some sort of market for new-build AA (not sure East Harbour could truly be considered AAA space), but not like there was pre-covid.
 

jayme2016

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yes, but even downtown has decent vacancies. Suburban office is more like 20% vacant and downtown 10%, working out to a 15% average. Even 10% isn't particularly healthy.

There is probably still some sort of market for new-build AA (not sure East Harbour could truly be considered AAA space), but not like there was pre-covid.
There still is some market it won't be like it was pre covid.
 

rbt

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I bet CF will be better than most of us at predicting future demand :)

Indeed.

They also need to ensure their new area becomes a "place", even if the first few buildings don't turn an immediate profit. If you think of it as a 12-million square foot project, this first building is the marketing campaign.

In hindsight, First Gulf had ridiculously lucky timing.
 

taal

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So in case this helps, when you see highly different vacancy numbers being reported keep in mind there are typically two measures utilized:
- Vacancy Rates
- Total Vacancy Rates (including sublets)

So those higher 12%+ vacancy rates for Toronto include sublet space, whereas the much lower 4% number do not.

Here sublets implies the space is leased from the perceptive of the commercial property owner, but the company leasing said space is not using it and is attempting to lease it on the secondary market.

So the ultra low numbers (even at the peak a few years back ~ 2%) generally never include sublet space.

Of course when you add sublet space it's always going to be higher, but it can serve as a longer term bellwether if it increases suddenly / rapidly, which we are indeed seeing an element of nowadays.
 

UtakataNoAnnex

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The Globe last week said Toronto overall is at 15% vacancy.

I think a lot of big companies are going to be reducing their office space over the next few years to reflect more work from home as their leases expire, but Toronto is generally booming in terms of jobs. I bet CF will be better than most of us at predicting future demand :)
As long as they don't slap everything up with bathroom tiles...

...I know, I know...but I won't forgive them for what they did with 401 Bay! >.<
 
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maestro

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I think vacancy rates aren't really a factor. CF has already spent more than $700 million for a property that is generating no income right now. They need to build something.
 

jsmith77

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yes, but even downtown has decent vacancies. Suburban office is more like 20% vacant and downtown 10%, working out to a 15% average. Even 10% isn't particularly healthy.

There is probably still some sort of market for new-build AA (not sure East Harbour could truly be considered AAA space), but not like there was pre-covid.
I'm sure we all watched We Crashed a little smugly, but I don't understand why the real estate/development folks haven't talked with our larger conglomerates to figure out co-working spaces 2.0. Post covid I feel like you'd get people back in offices more if their offices were no more than 1km away from home. Bell, Rogers, Telus, the banks, Insurance companies- reinvent WeWork not with freelancers renting desks, but via corporate hotelling contracts. So none of them would get their logo on a tower, but you do that kind of thing in East Harbour and stop folks from East Toronto/GTA needing to go downtown for work.
 

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