Toronto 16 York | 154.83m | 32s | Cadillac Fairview | a—A

Edward Skira said:
As maestro indicated one only has to look to Calgary to see what can happen with spec builds. In Calgary buildings WITH tenants are opening basically empty.
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Toronto has a far more diversified economy than Calgary though…

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This is not rocket science, ladies and gentlemen. CF has made a business decision with the understanding that the chances of high demand are greater than the chances of little to no demand. Nothing is ever certain but in order to make money (which CF wants to do), one has to weigh risks and rewards. CF has done just that and has decided to proceed. There is no "rush" and there is little need to "question". It is a simple business decision, after some analysis.
 
interchange42 said:
Toronto has a far more diversified economy than Calgary though…
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It also did back in the 1980's when a wack of major developers went bankrupt. There's a reason why developers don't build on spec today. Same reason condo developers need 70% or so in terms of sales. They (and in this I include bankers) learned hard lessons back then. I'm not saying things will go bad for CF by building on spec but to think it can't happen in Toronto is shortsighted. History proves that it can happen here.
 
Edward Skira said:
It also did back in the 1980's when a wack of major developers went bankrupt. There's a reason why developers don't build on spec today. Same reason condo developers need 70% or so in terms of sales. They (and in this I include bankers) learned hard lessons back then. I'm not saying things will go bad for CF by building on spec but to think it can't happen in Toronto is shortsighted. History proves that it can happen here.
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CF is probably the most conservative of all the pension fund builders in the city (Oxford being the most liberal).

The market is very tight and there's a reason CF (among others) are quite bullish.
 
Edward Skira said:
It also did back in the 1980's when a wack of major developers went bankrupt. There's a reason why developers don't build on spec today. Same reason condo developers need 70% or so in terms of sales. They (and in this I include bankers) learned hard lessons back then. I'm not saying things will go bad for CF by building on spec but to think it can't happen in Toronto is shortsighted. History proves that it can happen here.
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Although I've been a visitor to the site for a number of years, this is my first post. Thought it was important to point out that many of the developers that suffered through the late 80's/early 90's were privately held. Most (if not all) of today's developers are controlled by pension funds. Thus they have much greater financial flexibility when it comes to these types of projects. Also, many of the condo projects going up today are led by private companies, so the pre-sale requirement is an important requirement for that part of the industry.
 
alklay said:
This is not rocket science, ladies and gentlemen. CF has made a business decision with the understanding that the chances of high demand are greater than the chances of little to no demand. Nothing is ever certain but in order to make money (which CF wants to do), one has to weigh risks and rewards. CF has done just that and has decided to proceed. There is no "rush" and there is little need to "question". It is a simple business decision, after some analysis.
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First. What the point of the forum not to question the decision of developers including design choices? Tridel sell out multiple buildings at a time.

Second. They will say whatever serves them best in a press release. It isn't about truthiness. They can say spec but. not mean spec in the traditional sense. This is Lamb's territory. Say anything to boost confidence.

Third. CF isn't necessarily make the decisions here either. It's a partnership with other pension funds that don't have their own expert real estate investment arm like OTPP.
 
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JR1029 said:
Although I've been a visitor to the site for a number of years, this is my first post. Thought it was important to point out that many of the developers that suffered through the late 80's/early 90's were privately held. Most (if not all) of today's developers are controlled by pension funds. Thus they have much greater financial flexibility when it comes to these types of projects. Also, many of the condo projects going up today are led by private companies, so the pre-sale requirement is an important requirement for that part of the industry.
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Greater financial flexibility doesn't explain why pension fund real estate arms are the most conservative out of the whole lot. I would think the demand by the pension fund plays a much bigger role than the impressive portfolio value. I don't know about the Teachers. OMERS which owns Oxford has a deficit. They can't afford to gamble a million and lose it.
 
Digging. Photo taken 28 June 2017.

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