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The Coming Disruption of Transport

Would you buy an EV from a Chinese OEM?

  • Yes

    Votes: 17 17.2%
  • No

    Votes: 66 66.7%
  • Maybe

    Votes: 16 16.2%

  • Total voters
    99
This. I don't know if it's a communication problem or people just don't understand how AI and sensor fusion works in a self-driving environment.

It’s beyond my comprehension, I’m sure. Maybe too much experience with past decades’ coding where every scenario had to be explicitly provided for. The whole concept of AI adapting to weather and road conditions without a specific “IF *Foggy=true* Then....” statement blows my mind.

There has to be some level of vehicular AI navigation that says “I want the on ramp from Warden to the eastbound 401, and I just passed the A+W, so I better go five blocks north”. How that integrates with the more free flowing decision making I can’t even imagine.

The tougher thing to get my head around is the premise that AI can handle 99.9999999. % of the millions of different scenarios that drivers encounter. I’m not as worried about being driven into the back of a parked firetruck (the stereotypical AI vehicle fail that one reads about) as I am about having the vehicle just stop and have to reboot. Or pull in behind a grader because it misread the pylons and now it’s on the shoulder. There isn’t a tech product out there, up to and including NASA probes and anti-missile defenses, that doesn’t do that every so often

- Paul
 
This assumes a highly regulated road travel 'industry'.

On a basic level, the vehicle would have the capability to get around. But once we start getting into more complex scenarios, it still have a broader network feeding data to it. It doesn't have to regulated road travel. A self-driving car would be able to go off-roading too.

Also, people keep assuming it's a car. In reality, we're talking all kinds of vehicles. See Seba's example of the rolling Starbucks.
 
It’s beyond my comprehension, I’m sure. Maybe too much experience with past decades’ coding where every scenario had to be explicitly provided for. The whole concept of AI adapting to weather and road conditions without a specific “IF *Foggy=true* Then....” statement blows my mind.

....

The tougher thing to get my head around is the premise that AI can handle 99.9999999. % of the millions of different scenarios that drivers encounter. I’m not as worried about being driven into the back of a parked firetruck (the stereotypical AI vehicle fail that one reads about) as I am about having the vehicle just stop and have to reboot. Or pull in behind a grader because it misread the pylons and now it’s on the shoulder. There isn’t a tech product out there, up to and including NASA probes and anti-missile defenses, that doesn’t do that every so often

- Paul

L5 autonomy has been said to be the most complex thing ever done. More than landing a man on the moon or sequencing the human genome. We're talking about a computer system that would pass the Turing test on the task of operating a vehicle. This is why I think Seba vastly overestimates for fast AI is coming. We could well be stuck with L4 autonomy for decades.

There has to be some level of vehicular AI navigation that says “I want the on ramp from Warden to the eastbound 401, and I just passed the A+W, so I better go five blocks north”. How that integrates with the more free flowing decision making I can’t even imagine.

This one is relatively easy. Don't even need L5 autonomy for this. It's map following. It's not looking the A&W. It knows where it is. The map tells it where the ramp is. And the cameras are reading the signs to confirm the map. This is literally what Machine Vision is about in this space: the car reading the signs just like you.
 
In any event, I'm far less interested in the whole AI/TaaS concept than the speed at which electrification of transport is happening. The Bloomberg video I posted earlier is a good summary.

I'm predicting that we'll see rapid electrification of fleets. And I wish that the government got active on our end. Canada Post needs funding to transition. And why not give all the transit authorities and school bus operators infrastructure money to wire up and retool their garages to kick start electrification. New Flyer is a leader in electric buses. Lion Electric is a leader in electric school buses and service vehicles. I wish we'd create more opportunity at home for these companies.
 
Autonomous cars don't rely on mapping to navigate. They constantly sense everything going on around them and can see way more than a human can. There's nothing about a construction site or changing road markings or potholes that would confuse an autonomous car any more than it would confuse a human driver.

If the road markings and construction workers are behaving in an and well-defined expected manner, sure. But even human drivers regularly get confused when navigating construction sites.

A huge problem with AI and ML, especially pertaining to autonomous driving, is that these systems can generally only react to a situation, if they've seen them before. Novel situations can absolutely trip up AI piloted vehicles. This is a critical problem, because human drivers rely on a lot of poorly defined, implicit communications to navigate the road safely.

For example, say you come up to a construction site on a single-lane road, and a construction vehicle immediately in front of you needs to back up for whatever reason. The construction vehicle stops in the lane, and there's a construction worker off to the of the road side wildly flailing his arms in a manner that human drivers would interpret as, "we need you to back up". Under current AI and ML implementations, the vehicle would be stuck. It would not understand why the truck stopped, it would not understand what the flailing arms mean, heck, it likely wouldn't even understand that the construction worker was even trying to get the attention of the "driver" in the first place, let alone even beginning to interpret what the heck flailing arms mean. The car would be a sitting duck dead in the road. This is just one example, but there are infinitely many conceivable situations where an autonomous vehicle might get stuck because it doesn't understand implicit social queues.

Further, variances in local culture mean that identical actions taken by human road users in different geographic locations, might have very different interpretations in terms of social queues. For example, in much of the world, it's customary for pedestrians to just wander onto a street, with the expectations that the cars will accommodate their presence. Elsewhere in the world, pedestrians would only do that if they had a death wish.

This is such a big problem, that some have even suggested that companies operating fleets of autonomous vehicles might need to employ an army of remote workers to pilot the vehicles, when they come across situations that they cannot navigate on their own. Others have suggested that once autonomous vehicles become a large portion of vehicles on the road, the laws regulating road use might need to change to completely eliminate unpredictable human behaviour. In the case of a construction site, for example, this would mean that the boundaries of every construction site would need to be very well defined, in a manner that a computer could understand and navigate around. Haphazardly throwing pylons around the street, with poorly laid out lane markings would not be adequate. This could even lead to some rather draconian measures, such as outright banning jaywalking.

The current state of Artificial Intelligence today should be thought of as being conceptually similar to the intelligence of a simple insect, such as a fly. A fly is absolutely an intelligent agent. It has goals, it can systematically and efficiently work towards this goal, it even has rudimentary problem solving abilities. However, like our autonomous cars, fly intelligence is only effective when dealing with familiar and well defined problems. Give a fly a novel problem, such as putting a glass wall in between it and its destination, and the fly will be hopeless to find a solution.
 
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This is such a big problem, that some have even suggested that companies operating fleets of autonomous vehicles might need to employ an army of remote workers to pilot the vehicles, when they come across situations that they cannot navigate on their own.

Oh man, blew my mind a bit there. That is basically the solution to the conundrum of autonomous vehicles in that 0.01% situation that demands a human driver. Then immediately I'm now thinking this might be a new multi-billion dollar economy. Who needs complete autonomous vehicles when you can, say, have mostly AI. But also pay people a dollar a day in the developing world to sit in a cubicle with a driving simulator to complete the task. Diff auto manufacturers will proclaim they have the better "takeover" drivers, perhaps even charging an annual fee for the service. Go off-roading with a buddy, but have someone an ocean away doing the actual driving.

In my eye AI / tele-remote driving is the solution, and with it 100% "self-driving" vehicle should be ready by 2030.
 
Oh man, blew my mind a bit there. That is basically the solution to the conundrum of autonomous vehicles in that 0.01% situation that demands a human driver. Then immediately I'm now thinking this might be a new multi-billion dollar economy. Who needs complete autonomous vehicles when you can, say, have mostly AI. But also pay people a dollar a day in the developing world to sit in a cubicle with a driving simulator to complete the task. Diff auto manufacturers will proclaim they have the better "takeover" drivers, perhaps even charging an annual fee for the service. Go off-roading with a buddy, but have someone an ocean away doing the actual driving.

In my eye AI / tele-remote driving is the solution, and with it 100% "self-driving" vehicle should be ready by 2030.

Yeah, obviously scalability and response time are huge limiting factors with this. With billions up billions of vehicle miles driven, even a failure rate of 0.01% would require an army of these remote pilots to rescue these vehicles. And response times would need to be virtually instant (a matter of seconds); we can't have cars sitting dead in the road for even minutes at a time.

Who knows, maybe all those truck drivers that end up unemployed due to autonomous vehicles will end up being re-hired as remote pilots for autonomous vehicles. Whoever tackles this problem with certainly end up being one of the world's largest employers.

I'd agree with your assessment that a "self-driving" vehicle should be available by 2030. At least at Level 4 autonomy (human intervention, whether remote or local, will be seldomly needed). However, the road from Level 4 to Level 5 autonomy will be a long one. I have no expectation that Level 5 will be achieved in our lifetimes

Curiously, the thing limiting the adoption of this kind of solution might not even be the advancement of Artificial Intelligence in self-driving applications, but rather, the poor state of cellular networks in much of the world. This kind of solution cannot be implemented using 4G networks, because the latency is too high. Under 4G LTE, it might take a quarter of a second for a remote operator to send an instruction to a car, and get feedback. Lower latency 5G networks would need to be deployed at a broad scale to enable this use case. Furthermore, this solution might also require a higher density of cellular sites, to further guarantee reliability. This could be a tall order in a lot of countries. Even in the United States, their 4G LTE networks can barely handle streaming video. Canada's cellular networks are fairly robust though, so we might actually be one of the first countries to adopt this kind of solution.
 
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I have no doubt that these technologies are coming and systemic changes will arrive; however, I doubt the adoption will be as fast nor the penetration as deep as suggested. This has nothing to do with technological capabilities.

What does a future utopian environment look like with near full autonomous EV vehicle fleet adoption and low personal ownership rates? It looks to me a poorer more autocratic world with extreme levels of inequality.
 
I have no doubt that these technologies are coming and systemic changes will arrive; however, I doubt the adoption will be as fast nor the penetration as deep as suggested. This has nothing to do with technological capabilities.

What does a future utopian environment look like with near full autonomous EV vehicle fleet adoption and low personal ownership rates? It looks to me a poorer more autocratic world with extreme levels of inequality.

Why do you think it would create more extreme levels of inequality?
 
It's amazing how long the internal combustion engine has held sway. Sure, we rode horses for many hundreds of years before the industrial revolution, but it's still noteworthy that I could pull up to a gas station today, (drop in a couple of lead pellets, if still running on original valve seats) and fill up a 100 year old car and drive away. In my vintage motorcycle club there are several guys who regularly ride motorcycles from the 1930s and you just fill up at the Esso like you would the latest 2020 hybrid car.
 
^The Seba video makes a fairly strong case that EVs will become incredibly cheap. That would seem to imply an equalising rather than unequalizing direction. Lack of mobility is itself a barrier to equality.... so cheaper mobility means both more disposable income and more opportunity.

However, I can certainly see impacts which would lead to greater autocracy and loss of privacy. Will all those L5 level vehicles be reporting data to a central network controller? Will local control points have data caches that can be downloaded? Does this enable every vehicle on the roads to be tracked centrally? Can vehicles be placed in “stealth” mode?

Drivers use discretion to commit many minor driving variations where a self driving car might just say “nope”. That will feel like a loss of autonomy. It puts a lot of power in the hands of technocrats .... it will be harder to fight City Hall. If I am accustomed to taking a short cut through back streets, will the self driving car comply? “We don’t feel you should do that” is the phrase you don’t want to hear from system designers when you are speccing out functionality.

- Paul
 
Just so people understand how far along electrification is....

Here's an article from last year that shows the cost curve for batteries is progressing:


By the end of the year, Bloomberg NEF says battery pack prices were down to $156/kWh. In the above article, they are predicting $94/kWh by 2024. To put this in perspective, that would mean the large battery in Tesla's Model S will have dropped in cost from $80-90k at launch to under $10K in 2024. And that's going by industry average. Tesla is rumoured to be well below industry average and Volkswagen is claiming they are at $100/kWh right now. We really are at the eve of the inflection point. There's about a 2 year lag from the battery prices to the models reaching market. But by 2022, there will be car models on the market that are probably within 15-20% of their gas equivalents and dropping. This is what has massive implications for several industries.
 
In my vintage motorcycle club there are several guys who regularly ride motorcycles from the 1930s and you just fill up at the Esso like you would the latest 2020 hybrid car.

Guessing those guys have never heard about Zero:


Zero's bikes are used by spec ops in several countries. Not having a loud engine has a tactical advantage.

 
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I love these charts. The implication here is that every single OEM should be able to deliver the equivalent range and performance of the Model S at its launch, in the year 2024.
 

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