The Coming Disruption of Transport

[Cambry Ardship]

Batteries have become much cheaper in the past two years.

These ultra-low battery price have major implications for the automotive and power sectors. Battery cells at $50/kWh means the technology to decarbonize most of road transport globally is already here, as opposed to in some future scenario. Pack-level prices for the most-sold battery chemistries have been below the often-referenced $100/kWh benchmark in China since October 2023, and LFP pack prices are now at $75/kWh. At that price, EVs can be priced at or below combustion cars in most vehicle segments, marking a huge shift. China is the world’s largest auto market, and battery-electric vehicles are currently the cheapest drivetrain by average transaction price in the country, even after stripping out mini city cars from the dataset.

The article is well worth a read and lays out good evidence for a huge coming shift in the automotive sector. To compare to a different technological shift almost two decades ago, even though LED screens had drawbacks, once they were able to be produced cheaper than CRTs it only took a few years until they completely dominated the market and made CRTs completely obsolete outside of a few niche applications.

 

[afransen]

A first time EV, vs Tesla which has been making EVs for years and still routinely turns out crap.

If not toyota, then it'll be VW, or BYD or some other manufacturer

If you're anti Tesla, I suggest Hyundai.

 

[afransen]

Batteries have become much cheaper in the past two years.



The article is well worth a read and lays out good evidence for a huge coming shift in the automotive sector. To compare to a different technological shift almost two decades ago, even though LED screens had drawbacks, once they were able to be produced cheaper than CRTs it only took a few years until they completely dominated the market and made CRTs completely obsolete outside of a few niche applications.

Classic S curve seen time and again. Lots of people are in denial, not least legacy automakers.

 

[Admiral Beez]

If you're anti Tesla, I suggest Hyundai.

No. Hyundai's EV batteries are vulnerable to damage. Unlike Tesla's almost-armoured battery box, Hyundai's are exposed.

Classic S surve seen time and again.

What's surve?

Surve - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[evandyk]

Nothing good comes from a market where one manufacturer dominates market share.

I have no brand choice in this race, but there will be better cars and better prices when several manufacturers are putting out EV's that match or better Tesla in quality and functionality

- Paul

Under current trends, it appears that when those cars appear on the North American market in umber, we will tariff the shit out of them so that people don't buy them.

 

[afransen]

No. Hyundai's EV batteries are vulnerable to damage. Unlike Tesla's almost-armoured battery box, Hyundai's are exposed.

What's surve?

Surve - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Tesla is still the best choice, but if people are going to be that political about the car they drive, Hyundai makes decent EVs. The battery issue is more a pricing/service challenge. There is no way they should be charging that much for a replacement pack. I think that price is Hyundai Canada's way of saying "we don't want to deal with this, just buy a new car".

 

[Towered]

Tesla is still the best choice, but if people are going to be that political about the car they drive, Hyundai makes decent EVs. The battery issue is more a pricing/service challenge. There is no way they should be charging that much for a replacement pack. I think that price is Hyundai Canada's way of saying "we don't want to deal with this, just buy a new car".

I'm very curious about their upcoming Ioniq 9.

 

[MisterF]

It’s not all rosy though.

Tesla’s Share of U.S. Electric Car Market Falls Below 50%​

49% market share is still amazing, though a marked decline and perhaps a trend in a now maturing market that will eventually see Tesla as just another car firm.

Clearly the legacy car companies were keeping their powder dry whilst Elon established the EV market and public acceptance, demonstrated the areas of success and failure and identified the opportunities. And now the legacy firms are using their dealer/service networks, established reputations with ICE vehicle owners, and their culture of frequent model refreshes and relaunches to make a jump on Tesla.

I'm looking forward to seeing Toyota's first all-electric EV https://www.toyota.ca/toyota/en/vehicles/bz4x/overview. Toyota quality without the Elon nonsense is a plus for me.

Lol I see that the post you're quoting is two years old. Unfortunately in the last two years Elon Musk has gone increasingly off the deep end. And while normally most people don't care about the politics of a company CEO, Elon has made himself a very outspoken public figure. So his politics are likely affecting Tesla sales. I still don't think they're in any existential danger but I'm not as bullish on them as I once was. Ultimately the increased competition they face is a good thing. I'd definitely be in the market for a Hyundai if I were buying a new car.

 

[Admiral Beez]

And while normally most people don't care about the politics of a company CEO…

It’s a fair point. I remember as a young man in the 1980s asking my Jewish friends why they aspire to drive German luxury brands when four decades earlier they actively exploited slave labour. The reply was they didn’t care about politics or history of the companies or its leaders, but more about having the best luxury cars. Others took a deeper approach to reconciling https://archive.is/KJ5oW. Now, Musk is not a Nazi, lol, but my point is that a lot of people don’t care about the company politics or activities.

 

[afransen]

I think a lot of people who are anti-Musk also have a fairly surface understanding of him. He's definitely not an angel but he's also not a cartoon villain. People like simple narratives, especially about billionaires, whether it is Musk, Bezos or Galen.

 

[nfitz]

I'd think the bigger issue is which car company is going to still be around in a few years time, when you will need replacement parts.

Personally, I buy cars built in Ontario. I'm not sure where Tesla's manufacturing is though.

 

[afransen]

I'd think the bigger issue is which car company is going to still be around in a few years time, when you will need replacement parts.

Personally, I buy cars built in Ontario. I'm not sure where Tesla's manufacturing is though.

They have plants in California, Texas, Shanghai and Berlin.

Buying cars made in Ontario seems very limiting.

 

[nfitz]

Buying cars made in Ontario seems very limiting.

As long as the car is well built and functions - who cares? Well other than those who freak out if someone's fingers touch their car ... and those driving those small shiny red sport penises.

 

[afransen]

As long as the car is well built and functions - who cares? Well other than those who freak out if someone's fingers touch their car ... and those driving those small shiny red sport penises.

Not sure about any of that. But you're limiting yourself to:

• Chevy Silverado
• Honda Civic
• Honda CR-V
• Toyota RAV-4
• Lexus RX/NX

List of automobiles manufactured in Ontario - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[nfitz]

... you're limiting yourself to:

• Chevy Silverado
• Honda Civic
• Honda CR-V
• Toyota RAV-4
• Lexus RX/NX

List of automobiles manufactured in Ontario - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Yes, though that list is a bit short right now, as both Ford and Chrysler are currently retooling, so by the time I buy my next vehicle, there'll be the the Dodge Charge, Chrysler minivans, Jeeps, and Ford pickups for the urban farmer.

and surely this is cooler:

I did misspeak though - I'd buy cars manufactured in other provinces too.