mdrejhon
Senior Member
This be true. I did mention the dystopia scenario as much as the utopia scenario.1.. True driverless-ness helps car owners as much as it helps car renters. If your car is totally self-driving, then you won't need to study for the licence and pass the test. Just like you don't need a license to use a TV or a dishwasher today.
That said, car owners can sign up their car to do driverless rideshare duty while they don't need the car. Especially if they're needing a bit help paying the bills. Potentially alleviating ownership for other people.
New hybrid business models may pop up. There could even be smaller/community rideshare pools if you don't want to sign up for heavy duty city wide Uber service. Your neighbour's car might as well be your own car too, if the neighbour is only a Sunday driver. New apps will pop up that makes that closer-knit car timesharing possible if some carowners are more comfortable with that. Etc.
There will be a lot of technological, legal & legislative considerations that influence what's possible and what's not.
I think that's an accurate target. Though it feels more like 10-20% because of inertia (used car market will keep things alive for quite a while) -- but 20%-30% unit sale drops in a 10-year timescale for new purchases at least for this region. I'm not really likely to buy another car again (unless I live rural) after my existing car wears out -- as I intend to fallback into carshare and other modes. By then, it is possible that driverless ridesharing may have airrived.Overall, I can easily see the per capita car ownership going down 20% or 30% in the next 5 to 10 years, but I doubt it can go down 50% or more.
There's a very good reason why cars are getting more expensive -- but I will omit the novel -- and just ask you to google "cars are getting more expensive" on average.2. The notion that cars will be getting more expensive, runs against the general observation that all things made of metal, plastic, and semiconductors, get cheaper over time.
It's not like brand new $300 Model T's anymore (A Model T Tourer used to cost that much in 1923; about $4500 today, inflation adjusted). If you are a student of history, one gets the idea why cars trend differently from electronics.
People are demanding more features, bells and whistles -- and goverments are demanding more safety, etc. Legislation didn't demand video backup cameras in 1960 and there were no seat belts in 1920s.
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