The best thing about a fall election...

[Observer Walt]

The polls suggest the Liberals are headed toward a minority government and the NDP is probably going to maintain its power, and the Bloc is going to lose its current level of support.

Not sure how you can lecture out of that keith.

Brandon, I doubt that very much. A lot can happen during a campaign of course, but I will be astonished if we don't end up with what we have now, a Conservative minority (not a bad thing at all, IMO). I don't know where you think the Liberals would be able to pick up 20 or more seats.

As for the polls, they don't mean that much at present, but they do show Liberals and Conservatives essentially tied, as they have been for months now. Variations up and down one or two percentage points are explained more by the margin of error in the poll than by anything else.

My fearless prediction: Liberals will gain two or three seats in the Montreal area from the Bloc, and maybe one or two in B.C., which is by far the most unpredictable province. Conservatives may gain one or two in Quebec outside Montreal. Elsewhere, there won't be major changes in any direction, and final numbers probably won't be that much different than they are now.

 

[adma]

The polls suggest the Liberals are headed toward a minority government and the NDP is probably going to maintain its power, and the Bloc is going to lose its current level of support.

Well, some polls. Others suggest the Tory-minority status quo is destined to hold.

And other than Green rising t/w double digits, that's been the give-or-take status quo since the last election--sometimes Liberals ahead, sometimes Tories ahead, but basically hard to tell a darned thing...

 

[Brandon716]

Or, what if the NDP loses support at the last moment because leftist Canadians get sick of Harper, they unify behind Liberals, and the Liberals win a surprise majority government?

Anything is possible.

 

[CDL.TO]

Or, what if the NDP loses support at the last moment because leftist Canadians get sick of Harper, they unify behind Liberals, and the Liberals win a surprise majority government?

Anything is possible.

How many ridings are there where the Liberal-NDP vote split is large enough to allow this to happen? Not enough, I'm pretty sure.

 

[MetroMan]

Or, what if the NDP loses support at the last moment because leftist Canadians get sick of Harper, they unify behind Liberals, and the Liberals win a surprise majority government?

Anything is possible.

I fall into that category. I would normally consider voting NDP if my riding has the possibility of electing the NDP candidate. If it's a fight between the PC's and the Liberals, I'll vote Liberal.

This time around, I'm voting Liberal no matter what. I want Harper's cocky demeanour to be kicked out of office ASAP.

In either outcome scenario, I'll be satisfied:

If the Liberals win, I'll be happy to get Harper out of office and Canada back to our Canadianness. The Conservative win was a protest vote. It's a likely possibility that Harper was Canada's 'rebound relationship' and people will revert to their Liberal vote.

If the Conservatives win another minority, I'll be less happy, but happy nonetheless. The Liberals can finally drop their interim leader – the uncharismatic Dion – and look for somebody with bite. I want an inspirational new leader on the national stage. Somebody who'll take Canada to the next level but take the Federal Government back to the Canadian values that we're used to.

 

[Admiral Beez]

This time around, I'm voting Liberal no matter what.

Unless you're in a tightly contested swing riding, your vote won't matter either way.

 

[Admiral Beez]

If the opposition really wants to take on Harper, here's the plan...

1) Green Party and NDP merge. Those that don't like it can leave.
2) Liberals toss Dion, and find a modern day Trudeau, Pearson, or whomever you like best....
3) Bloc-Liberals merge. Those that don't like it can leave.

or...

Green Party and NDP merge with Liberals.

Having more than two or three parties doesn't work in a non-PR system.

 

[Brandon716]

Metro, its always the rebound relationships that are so unproductive, and its like waking up after its all over and wondering how it happened to begin with.

 

[Dan416]

I'm 100% sure that Wajid Khan will lose his seat this time around. He certainly wasn't elected for his name, as I don't think he was even from Mississauga. People in Mississauga vote solidly Liberal, and I hope it stays that way.

 

[JasonParis]

We are just lucky that Canada has a tradition of settled politics, where debates once decided are not re-visited.

Although Harper revisited the SSM debate, albeit not successfully.

I'd predict a Conservative minority with a new Liberal leader in the Spring. If the Bloc vote further collapeses, I'd say it's finally au revoir for Gilles Duceppe and perhaps even a rethinking of whether the Bloc should be in Ottawa (as some separatists believe it legitimizes the federal state). Layton will be around for a few more elections and we'll likely see a Liberal majority by 2011.

 

[Hydrogen]

Harper revisited SSM largely to assuage the hard-liners in his then newly fused party. I doubt he had any interest in creating real social conflict based in the country based on that issue, nor did he want to look as if he was side-lining the more socially conservative elements that helped deliver him to the leadership. Besides, had SSM gone in front of the Supreme Court, the court would have allowed it, and Harper already knew that. A minority government losing an issue in front of the highest court in the land would have been quite a black eye for the new party. As a political issue, SSM is gone and done.

From what I understand, Harper's wife is an open-minded women. That's probably had an impact as well.

 

[Brandon716]

What makes a fall election even more interesting is the fact that Conservatives become pro-worker, spend-heavy job protectionists for a few months.

http://www.thestar.com/News/Canada/article/489292

Harper to announce cash for Ford plant

Sep 02, 2008 06:22 PM
Comments on this story (5)
THE CANADIAN PRESS

OTTAWA – Amid a flurry of pre-election spending, the Conservative government is expected to announce millions in federal funding Wednesday to help reopen an auto plant in southwestern Ontario.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper will be joined by his industry minister and a local MP at Ford's Essex plant.

Ford threw 900 people out of work when it shut the plant last year, but has been hoping to reopen it and produce environmentally friendly V8 engines.

While the Ontario government has already contributed $17 million to the project, the federal Conservatives have been critical of government subsidies for business.

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty – who will not be there for the announcement – has described Ontario's economic policy as a recipe for disaster and urged the province to cut taxes instead.

The announcement in the key electoral battleground of southern Ontario is one of more than a dozen spending commitments being made in the runup to an election call.

The Conservatives also announced more than $2 billion in unbudgeted spending in the runup to an anticipated election in early 2007.

They criticized the previous Liberal government when they oversaw a far larger round of pre-election spending before the 2005 campaign.

 

[kEiThZ]

What makes a fall election even more interesting is the fact that Conservatives become pro-worker, spend-heavy job protectionists for a few months.

http://www.thestar.com/News/Canada/article/489292

So basically...the Conservatives are morphing into Liberals....

I have predicted all along that this would happen. No one can resist the temptations of power. I was walking through the Confederation building the other day (where some of the Ministers have their offices) after a meeting, just thinking what a nice building it was. I bet the Conservatives are thinking the same thing and are willing to move to the centre if that's what keeps them in power. On some fronts (fiscal policy) they have already proven to be less conservative than the Liberals.

 

[Hydrogen]

So basically...the Conservatives are morphing into Liberals....

I have predicted all along that this would happen.

Not to upstage you, but I said that years ago to my Liberal friends who thought that theirs was the natural governing party. Bill Fox, who worked for Mulroney, once told me that Canada is a country of radical centrists, and that no party could get elected or survive in power for long unless they knew that. Looking at the history of this country since the Second World War, I believe that he is right.

 

[kEiThZ]

Or, what if the NDP loses support at the last moment because leftist Canadians get sick of Harper, they unify behind Liberals, and the Liberals win a surprise majority government?

Anything is possible.

Yeah...how many times has that strategy been proposed? It didn't work last time and it won't work this time.

For the average Canadian, Harper is less "scary" today than he was yesterday. A poll in the Toronto Star Opinion page shows most respondents think Stephen Harper is the most likeable federal leader. And this is the Star we are talking about here....

The Liberals forgot that elections are about politics not governing. Dion would have made a decent PM, but he is not a guy you want to run with. He simply lacks charisma and political instincts. This is all the worse when you have an Obama driving the left in the US.

Harper is going to get his minority again, while the Liberals learn that they can't take Canadians for granted any more.....