Harper will either be defeated in October, or else he'll be hamstrung by a minority against a Liberal/NDP coalition. Either way, this particular bundle of cash isn't coming in reality any time soon.
I have a feeling that SmartTrack funding isn't going away because it's essentially GO RER.... Provided Tory still pushes it through. Tory's supposedly good at negotiating with any color (red, orange, blue).
Anything GO-RER style probably qualifies for some federal funding boost (whatever it becomes) as part of transit funding expansions offered at the federal level. Liberals and NDP are currently far more pro-transit than the Conservatives are, so the funding may actually be
increased, with some conditions (e.g. RER expansions, chop the Eglinton spur, Brampton RER station, Pearson RER station, etc.) ... All the other good SmartTrack elements would be kept and still be funded 3-way (federal-provincial-municipal).
The funding mix suggested by
- Provincial: Their 1/3rd is the existing electricifation plan of GO RER
- Muncipal/Federal: Their respective 1/3rd is funding the infill stations, better integration with TTC, and the Eglinton spur.
The Ontario budget already suggests that this is actually the case (Ontario Budget, "TABLE 1.2 GO Transit Rail Service Improvements", Chart 1.9 considers SmartTrack 'enhancements' above-and-beyond existing GO RER plan, is funded by City/Federal, labelled as "
Partner Funding")
So the provincial gets to spend the same money doing what they were doing anyway (electricifation, electric train sets, etc), but the SmartTrack add-ons are the expensive Eglinton spur (not efficient use of money), infill stations (great idea), TTC integration (great idea).
Documents, including like
this City of Toronto workplan and
this Ontario budget, is suggesting hints of some sanity is proceeding with SmartTrack. The plan is study the Eglinton feasibility separately and possibly modify that, even while proceeding with the rest of the "thing" (SmartTrack or GO RER or whatever they call it). It even considers integration of the existing Bramalea-Unionville GO RER plan and the SmartTrack GO RER plan -- (So this will also cover the topic, such as sending every other SmartTrack down the spur versus Bramalea, or some other solution that supports both routes). Behind the scenes, there is more sanity it seems.
Hopefully Tory can agree to chopping the Eglinton spur, since we can install so many more stations with ECLRT. Use this transit funding to enhance RER or divert expensive Eglinton spur funding (The SmartTrack Eglinton spur would be likely approx $3bn) to DRL and ECLRT extension.