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Rob Ford's Toronto

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Cooper said:
David Socknacki's campaign manager tweeted this evening that the Forum poll was still in the field as of this afternoon. The possibility of such a poll spooks the crap out of me, but marcus's tweet doesn't seem to be generating a lot of noise on Twitter. He was a Tory speech at Grano tonight, so I think we can put this down to party gossip for now. (God, I hope it's not true.)
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I find it impossible to believe the rumor about Ford leading a poll is true. His extremely low approval ratings seem to make that impossible, but for a mammoth collapse by the others, particularly Tory, that would drop them into the low-to-mid 20s. And I don't think Tory has done anything lately to screw up his ratings that royally.
 
whatthe said:
I find it impossible to believe the rumor about Ford leading a poll is true. His extremely low approval ratings seem to make that impossible, but for a mammoth collapse by the others, particularly Tory, that would drop them into the low-to-mid 20s. And I don't think Tory has done anything lately to screw up his ratings that royally.
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Maybe this poll was conducted at Mom's fundraiser or via phone numbers of the guests in attendance.
That's the only explanation I can see for the claim.
 
Kat's Meow said:
Wait ... I thought that there was an anti nepotism policy meaning you can't hire family to work for you?
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Don't let this ruin your trip Kat, I posed a terribly naive question here weeks ago. To the effect of why isn't there a code of conduct for all civic employees (this was around the fake bomb scare. And whatever happened to that investigation?) And I was informed that politicians are not considered employees. That needs to change. They most certainly are employees. They get paid for thier work .What could be clearer? As long as they are not considered employees maybe they could at least read the manual on bomb scares. FFS So frustrating.
 
As I mentioned last week the Star has first release of Forums Polls at this time...I also mentioned there wouldn't be "smiling eyes" if that poll had R Ford's popularity increasing...Could it be that The Star has asked for a repolling taking into consideration Stintz's announcement... Forum's polls seem to be released in three to four week intervals and the last poll was released Aug 2 so the I would have expected a new release somewhere between Aug 25 and Sept 2....unless of course Ekos or Ipsos was looking to make a splash considering they haven't been heard from in almost a year....
 
whatthe said:
I find it impossible to believe the rumor about Ford leading a poll is true. His extremely low approval ratings seem to make that impossible, but for a mammoth collapse by the others, particularly Tory, that would drop them into the low-to-mid 20s. And I don't think Tory has done anything lately to screw up his ratings that royally.
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Playing around with a few percentage points is crazy and voting based on these findings is crazy. What no one is talking about but is a very real thing are the number of people who will vote for Ford but won't admit it. There are lots of these people. To ensure a Ford-free mayor's office, vote for the front runner.
 
RoboHobo said:
Then a very real possibility of Ford more years exists.
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I posit that we start explaining to ford fans that a win will surely kill him. The more I think about it, I think the cops are saving the evidence in case he wins again. Bomb scare check. Drunk driving check. Consorting with known crims check.
 
Greg Banks said:
As I mentioned last week the Star has first release of Forums Polls at this time...I also mentioned there wouldn't be "smiling eyes" if that poll had R Ford's popularity increasing...Could it be that The Star has asked for a repolling taking into consideration Stintz's announcement... Forum's polls seem to be released in three to four week intervals and the last poll was released Aug 2 so the I would have expected a new release somewhere between Aug 25 and Sept 2....unless of course Ekos or Ipsos was looking to make a splash considering they haven't been heard from in almost a year....
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Which leaves you five whole days...would make more sense than a Toronto Star conspiracy theory.
 
I think the main problem is that we appear to be watching history repeat itself. As it was last time, the two main alternatives to Ford are showing themselves to be unpalatable to say the least. This is a major - and unpleasant - surprise since Tory and Chow, you'd have thought, would be far preferable to Whatsisname and Whozit from the last election...but Chow's campaign thus far has been downright insipid, and Tory's a pompous windbag of a loser who inspires no confidence at all.

And then there's Soks, and yes, he seems like a decent and intlligent guy. But his "bring a calculator to a knifefight" style of campaigning has been mind-boggling to witness. More than the others, he should be bringing the fight to Ford, and I say that from a purely pragmatic viewpoint. Since he's so less high profile than the other two, he has to find a way to stand out somehow, and the only practical way I can think of for him to do that is to act as an attack dog towards the not-inconsiderable target that is our current "Mayor." This is even more the case since none of the others appear to have the stomach to go after Ford. Mayor Circus Clown should be getting his gigantic ass kicked on a regular basis here, and it's downright surreal that nobody is willing to bite the bullet and do that.
 
This election will be won or lost hinging on the results of specific highly populated Wards...Pollers should be adjusting their sights to specifically gauging Wards 15, 16, 23, 24, 25, 41, 42 and 44. I think it is too early to tell how these wards are going to break
Etobicoke (1,2,3)/York (7,8,9,11,12) will vote R Ford as first choice most of which are lower populated/elector wards
Old City and Old Scarborough (13,14,15,17,18,19,20,21,22,27,28,29,30,31,32,35,36) will break Chow/Tory how the split will be I'm not sure as neither at this point is really grabbing voters with their vision and there are differing geographical imperatives
I expect Don Valley (26,33,34,39,40) to be a three way split with a slight advantage to Tory
And the we come to R Ford's Scarborough strength (37,38,43)...priority neighbourhood wards

R Ford is hanging his hat on getting TCHC vote out...164,000 tenents...probably 82,000 voting age...probably 75% eligible to vote...being generous maybe 60% of that will go to the polls...37,000 at the top end. I expect somewhere around 350,000 will be necessary to win the election....If R Ford polls 50% again with a 60% turnout in Etob/York and his Scarborough wards that is another 101,692 votes....so the possibility here is if R Ford polls in the above he is 211,308 votes from 350,000 and considering there will be another 712,857 voters available with a 60% turnout in the rest of Toronto... R Ford needs less than 30% of those voters to get returned...
 
John_Dee said:
I think the main problem is that we appear to be watching history repeat itself. As it was last time, the two main alternatives to Ford are showing themselves to be unpalatable to say the least. This is a major - and unpleasant - surprise since Tory and Chow, you'd have thought, would be far preferable to Whatsisname and Whozit from the last election...but Chow's campaign thus far has been downright insipid, and Tory's a pompous windbag of a loser who inspires no confidence at all.

And then there's Soks, and yes, he seems like a decent and intlligent guy. But his "bring a calculator to a knifefight" style of campaigning has been mind-boggling to witness. More than the others, he should be bringing the fight to Ford, and I say that from a purely pragmatic viewpoint. Since he's so less high profile than the other two, he has to find a way to stand out somehow, and the only practical way I can think of for him to do that is to act as an attack dog towards the not-inconsiderable target that is our current "Mayor." This is even more the case since none of the others appear to have the stomach to go after Ford. Mayor Circus Clown should be getting his gigantic ass kicked on a regular basis here, and it's downright surreal that nobody is willing to bite the bullet and do that.
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I'd kind of like someone to come out and just flat out call Ford an idiot. What's he going to do, sue to prove that he isn't?
 
Greg Banks said:
This election will be won or lost hinging on the results of specific highly populated Wards...Pollers should be adjusting their sights to specifically gauging Wards 15, 16, 23, 24, 25, 41, 42 and 44. I think it is too early to tell how these wards are going to break
Etobicoke (1,2,3)/York (7,8,9,11,12) will vote R Ford as first choice most of which are lower populated/elector wards
Old City and Old Scarborough (13,14,15,17,18,19,20,21,22,27,28,29,30,31,32,35,36) will break Chow/Tory how the split will be I'm not sure as neither at this point is really grabbing voters with their vision and there are differing geographical imperatives
I expect Don Valley (26,33,34,39,40) to be a three way split with a slight advantage to Tory
And the we come to R Ford's Scarborough strength (37,38,43)...priority neighbourhood wards

R Ford is hanging his hat on getting TCHC vote out...164,000 tenents...probably 82,000 voting age...probably 75% eligible to vote...being generous maybe 60% of that will go to the polls...37,000 at the top end. I expect somewhere around 350,000 will be necessary to win the election....If R Ford polls 50% again with a 60% turnout in Etob/York and his Scarborough wards that is another 101,692 votes....so the possibility here is if R Ford polls in the above he is 211,308 votes from 350,000 and considering there will be another 712,857 voters available with a 60% turnout in the rest of Toronto... R Ford needs less than 30% of those voters to get returned...
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You can't win a three-way race with <30% of the vote.
 
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