Rob Ford's Toronto

[Eug]

Considering that across city of Toronto residents the median hourly wage is $20.50, a low end job at $22 is too high. If the median wage is higher in the Toronto public service than private sector we have a problem since the public sector salaries are being paid through tax revenue raised off the private sector. Poor people are paying more taxes to give the better off higher wages.

I guess I wouldn't actually consider it low end, but actually the reason I chose those numbers is because they reflect the garbage workers:

http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2009/06/24/for_garbage_collectors_wages_and_benefits_vary_a_lot.html

TURTLE ISLAND WASTE COLLECTORS

Pay: Varies depending on the kind of truck you drive and bonuses, workers say. One worker makes $23 an hour, while another said his base wage was $18 an hour, but that he typically makes around $21 with bi-weekly bonuses. Bonuses are based on how much weight he lugs and whether he gets to work on time.

CITY OF TORONTO WASTE COLLECTORS

Pay: $25.11 an hour for drivers or loaders of solid waste, up 2.75 to 3.25 per cent annually since 2005.

I've been listening to Rob And Doug's radio show for the past few weeks

Why? Just curious. I don't think I could sit through it, but then again I've never tried.

 

[MetroMan]

I would be stunned if he's the left wing's municipal flag bearer in 2014. I think it's Olivia's to lose, and if not her, Peggy Nash or - as I've heard via my NDP friend - Peter Tabuns. Heck, I could see Frances Lankin or even His Blondness himself take another stab at it over Giambrone.



It is highly unlikely there will be more than one left wing candidate given that the NDP always puts their eggs in one camp. In the 2003 election there were still some remaining NDP supporters helping Barbara Hall but the party establishment was fully behind Miller.

I don't think he'd get the NDP machine support he may think he has but I think the odds are looking good that he'll at least enter the race, perhaps not finish it. He's desperate to correct his numbskull mistake. If you know Adam, he's an overachiever, used to being ahead of his peers. He was an accomplished archeologist when most people his age were still trying to buy their first car and became the youngest ever President of the NDP at 24. He was *this* close to having a good shot at becoming the youngest ever Mayor of Toronto and blew it because of well... he blew it. Stupid mistake and I think he wants to put it behind him by either becoming an MPP or by using this by-election to setting up a run for Mayor.

I personally welcome a large field of candidates to make it clear to voters that this isn't the usual incumbent 2nd term re-election. Even if it's just an illusion, having several high profile candidates lets voters know that there's a choice and that we don't have to carry on with the poisonous atmosphere of the last 4 years. If Giambrone runs, I hope he has the good grace to drop out unlike Joe Pantalone if there's little chance of him winning. At this point, I imagine this will be the lineup:

Rob Ford
Olivia Chow
John Tory
Karen Stintz
Adam Giambrone
Giorgio Mammoliti (why not? It worked for him last time)

In that field, there's a good chance that Rob Ford may not even come in second place. John Tory and Olivia Chow have just as much name recognition as Ford and Karen Stintz is close behind. Giambrone would add value to the debates but I think that he'd soon find out that he has no shot if the NDP isn't backing him and bow out in support of Olivia Chow. Mammo would of course stay until he has to file his papers for councillor and use the high level Mayoral election exposure to beat his ward's candidates.

It's hard to say right now but in a 4 way race, I think Karen Stintz wouldn't match up to the other 3 and would do the same as Mammoliti and go back to running for Council. I imagine Olivia and Tory both staying in until the end and if my hunch is correct, Tory would pull a lot of Conservative votes away from Ford -- maybe just enough to put the incumbent in 3rd place -- while taking back most of his 2006 mushy middle supporters. He could beat Olivia but Ford's pull might do him in if Ford Nation sticks around.

EDIT: I just thought of another possibility. Giambrone would mop the floor with Ana Bailão if he decided to run for his old job. Bailão is wounded by her drunk driving charge and at best only has the unwavering support of the Portuguese community. Adam was a popular hands on councillor -- in a way a lot like Rob Ford. He was easy to get a hold of and even though he was busy with the TTC, he was often seen in his ward talking to constituents. If Olivia does run and gets the NDP machine behind her, I can see Giambrone settling for getting his old job back and using it to rebuild his name and reputation for a 2018 or 2022 run for Mayor.

 

[junior43]

I hope all this talk of Giambrone is assuming he loses the MPP election. He has no hope if he wins the MPP role then gives it up less than a year later to run for council or Mayor.

The best thing for him career wise, is to win the MPP spot and stay there for at least 2 election cycles.

The last thing people remember right now is the stained couch. A couple years as an MPP and it still gets mentioned, but he should have other accomplishments by then as well.

 

[vic]

EDIT: I just thought of another possibility. Giambrone would mop the floor with Ana Bailão if he decided to run for his old job. Bailão is wounded by her drunk driving charge and at best only has the unwavering support of the Portuguese community. Adam was a popular hands on councillor -- in a way a lot like Rob Ford. He was easy to get a hold of and even though he was busy with the TTC, he was often seen in his ward talking to constituents. If Olivia does run and gets the NDP machine behind her, I can see Giambrone settling for getting his old job back and using it to rebuild his name and reputation for a 2018 or 2022 run for Mayor.

Hmmm.... I'm not so sure of that. Giambrone made alot of enemies in Ward 18. Overall, I thought he was OK, and some of his staff were quite responsive to residents etc too., but at times I think he was a bit out of touch and focused on his bigger ambitions (TTC, mayor, etc.). I supported Kevin Beaulieu (Giambrone's EA) in the last election, but I think even Giambrone himself would have had a hard time shaking off Bailao. Right now, Bailao has way more support than just the Portuguese community. I think the DUI has harmed her a bit, and she's pissed off cyclists for various bike lane removal votes, but she's been pretty strong and active in other areas.

I'm actually quite interested to see who runs against her here. Could be an interesting race. I wonder if the NDP machine will back a strong competitor against her. Are you in this ward too? Got any insight?

 

[TheTigerMaster]

With Adam Giambrone's re-entry into politics lending credence to prior rumblings about a possible 2014 mayoral bid, I poked around. One person says he's absolutely considering mounting a campaign if his MPP bid isn't won. Thoughts?

I have a feeling that if he were to run, he wouldn't pick up too many votes. I'd estimate less than 10% or perhaps as low as 1%. If Mr. Giambrone does run, and it becomes clear late in the race that he won't win, I hope he'll be considerate enough to drop out. Toronto can't afford to split the leftist vote.

 

[MetroMan]

Hmmm.... I'm not so sure of that. Giambrone made alot of enemies in Ward 18. Overall, I thought he was OK, and some of his staff were quite responsive to residents etc too., but at times I think he was a bit out of touch and focused on his bigger ambitions (TTC, mayor, etc.). I supported Kevin Beaulieu (Giambrone's EA) in the last election, but I think even Giambrone himself would have had a hard time shaking off Bailao. Right now, Bailao has way more support than just the Portuguese community. I think the DUI has harmed her a bit, and she's pissed off cyclists for various bike lane removal votes, but she's been pretty strong and active in other areas.

I'm actually quite interested to see who runs against her here. Could be an interesting race. I wonder if the NDP machine will back a strong competitor against her. Are you in this ward too? Got any insight?

I was in Pantalone's/Layton's. Because of the proximity and issues that were just barely in his ward, I interacted with Giambrone quite a bit. I'm in Vaughan's ward now. I don't have any insight who's going to run against Ana but I do think that if Adam were to run he'd be a formidable opponent. It's his best chance at resetting himself and getting a shot at the Mayor's chair in 1 or 2 terms. I don't think this MPP run is anything but a set up for his higher ambitions.

 

[Silence&Motion]

Considering that across city of Toronto residents the median hourly wage is $20.50, a low end job at $22 is too high. If the median wage is higher in the Toronto public service than private sector we have a problem since the public sector salaries are being paid through tax revenue raised off the private sector. Poor people are paying more taxes to give the better off higher wages.

So should it be a race to the bottom? The median personal income in the city is around $25,000-$30,000 (not including seniors). When you think of the cost of living, this is a crazy statistic. Inequality is becoming a huge problem all over the world, but it is particularly pronounced in cities where an elite upper class making six-digit salaries can drive up the cost of living for everyone else. I think the city should use its wage policy, among other things, to help combat economic inequality through economic redistribution. Whenever I hear people complaining about how much public employees make, I ask them if they'd prefer to plunge an entire segment of the city's population lower on the socio-economic ladder. We're already a city that's dramatically split between high-skilled, high-paying jobs, and low-paying service jobs. There's not much the city can do to change the dynamics of the global economy, but it can try to preserve the last major source of middle-income employment: the public service.

If you're worried about poor people paying too much taxes, then you should be fighting for a more progressive tax system to finance the municipal government rather than fighting for lower wages for public workers. One positive step would be to get the province to cover more municipal services using the income/corporate tax. Another would be for the city to use things like the land transfer tax or development fees to take pressure of the property tax base or user fees. Despite what developers tell you, development fees don't get transferred "straight to the buyer". The price of property is determined by supply and demand, not cost of development.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

I personally welcome a large field of candidates to make it clear to voters that this isn't the usual incumbent 2nd term re-election. Even if it's just an illusion, having several high profile candidates lets voters know that there's a choice and that we don't have to carry on with the poisonous atmosphere of the last 4 years. If Giambrone runs, I hope he has the good grace to drop out unlike Joe Pantalone if there's little chance of him winning. At this point, I imagine this will be the lineup:

Rob Ford
Olivia Chow
John Tory
Karen Stintz
Adam Giambrone
Giorgio Mammoliti (why not? It worked for him last time)

In that field, there's a good chance that Rob Ford may not even come in second place. John Tory and Olivia Chow have just as much name recognition as Ford and Karen Stintz is close behind. Giambrone would add value to the debates but I think that he'd soon find out that he has no shot if the NDP isn't backing him and bow out in support of Olivia Chow. Mammo would of course stay until he has to file his papers for councillor and use the high level Mayoral election exposure to beat his ward's candidates.

I really want to agree with you MM, but I have a feeling that what you've set up here would hand Ford a victory. Every poll that I've seen has shown if there are two major candidates (Ford v. ?) in the race, Ford will win. We cannot underestimate the stubbornness of the 33% of people who still support Ford. If what you've hypothesized does happen, it will be incredibly easy for that 33% of people who still stand by Ford to get their man back in office.

 

[Tulse]

Every poll that I've seen has shown if there are two major candidates (Ford v. ?) in the race, Ford will win.

You've seen much different polls than I have -- the polls by Forum Research show Ford losing if he faces Tory, Chow, or both.

 

[MetroMan]

I really want to agree with you MM, but I have a feeling that what you've set up here would hand Ford a victory. Every poll that I've seen has shown if there are two major candidates (Ford v. ?) in the race, Ford will win. We cannot underestimate the stubbornness of the 33% of people who still support Ford. If what you've hypothesized does happen, it will be incredibly easy for that 33% of people who still stand by Ford to get their man back in office.

It's not difficult to argue that polls outside of elections aren't worth the e-paper they're printed on. How well do you think Rob Ford would have done in a poll 1 year before he entered the race?

Let's hypothesize this in the real world with real world conditions and factors that are in play: Ford has no team. Kouvalis is out. Ciano is out. Towhey and Nejatian were fired and resigned. The Conservative machine is looking for a candidate to run. Many campaign donors aren't going to support him this time around. Without an experienced team, without financing and being himself wealthy, Ford has created the perfect storm to break campaign finance laws. I understand that he has plenty of free publicity from the media as the incumbent but we can't underestimate the importance of a well organized get out the vote team. Who's going to run it? Doug? His newbie assistants? I'm not convinced that he can mount an effective campaign and so he'll have to rely on name recognition and media soundbites -- and since when was the media fair in cutting soundbites?

Once Tory and Chow have had their opportunity to campaign with superior firepower (funding and personnel) then we can see how well they're doing. Tory is very likeable and as a Conservative, I think he'll pull away many of the more rational Rob Ford supporters. Let's not forget that he got 38% of voters to check his name on the ballot versus David Miller's 43%. Many people have already voted for him. I don't think Olivia is going to lose a lot of support to Tory -- Ford is. As I see it now, if all 3 are running, I can imagine a scenario where Ford comes in third. That would be sweet so maybe I'm day dreaming, but I see a lot of factors that could make it come true.

Heck, I'm going to throw a hail mary and put out this wild prediction and check back after the campaign:

2014
Chow 39%
Tory 32%
Ford 29%

*when narrowed to 3 candidates.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

It's not difficult to argue that polls outside of elections aren't worth the e-paper they're printed on. How well do you think Rob Ford would have done in a poll 1 year before he entered the race?

Let's hypothesize this in the real world with real world conditions and factors that are in play: Ford has no team. Kouvalis is out. Ciano is out. Towhey and Nejatian were fired and resigned. The Conservative machine is looking for a candidate to run. Many campaign donors aren't going to support him this time around. Without an experienced team, without financing and being himself wealthy, Ford has created the perfect storm to break campaign finance laws. I understand that he has plenty of free publicity from the media as the incumbent but we can't underestimate the importance of a well organized get out the vote team. Who's going to run it? Doug? His newbie assistants? I'm not convinced that he can mount an effective campaign and so he'll have to rely on name recognition and media soundbites -- and since when was the media fair in cutting soundbites?

Once Tory and Chow have had their opportunity to campaign with superior firepower (funding and personnel) then we can see how well they're doing. Tory is very likeable and as a Conservative, I think he'll pull away many of the more rational Rob Ford supporters. Let's not forget that he got 38% of voters to check his name on the ballot versus David Miller's 43%. Many people have already voted for him. I don't think Olivia is going to lose a lot of support to Tory -- Ford is. As I see it now, if all 3 are running, I can imagine a scenario where Ford comes in third. That would be sweet so maybe I'm day dreaming, but I see a lot of factors that could make it come true.

Heck, I'm going to throw a hail mary and put out this wild prediction and check back after the campaign:

2014
Chow 39%
Tory 32%
Ford 29%

*when narrowed to 3 candidates.

Congratulations, you've swayed me. And given the polling numbers that Tulse has posted, I'm going to go ahead and endorse your prediction. But I still insist that in the six way race you hypothesized, there would be a good chance that Ford could have come out on top. In the Star poll (as always, take with a grain of salt), Chow was only 10 points ahead of Ford. The other 3 candidates you mentioned could have easily grabbed 10% of the vote, handing Ford a victory. I'd feel much more secure in the 2 way (chow v. ford, tory v. ford) or three way (chow vs. ford vs. tory) race. I can't wait to see who Laschinger decides to run.

 

[scar_resident]

So should it be a race to the bottom? The median personal income in the city is around $25,000-$30,000 (not including seniors). When you think of the cost of living, this is a crazy statistic. Inequality is becoming a huge problem all over the world, but it is particularly pronounced in cities where an elite upper class making six-digit salaries can drive up the cost of living for everyone else. I think the city should use its wage policy, among other things, to help combat economic inequality through economic redistribution. Whenever I hear people complaining about how much public employees make, I ask them if they'd prefer to plunge an entire segment of the city's population lower on the socio-economic ladder. We're already a city that's dramatically split between high-skilled, high-paying jobs, and low-paying service jobs. There's not much the city can do to change the dynamics of the global economy, but it can try to preserve the last major source of middle-income employment: the public service.

If you're worried about poor people paying too much taxes, then you should be fighting for a more progressive tax system to finance the municipal government rather than fighting for lower wages for public workers. One positive step would be to get the province to cover more municipal services using the income/corporate tax. Another would be for the city to use things like the land transfer tax or development fees to take pressure of the property tax base or user fees. Despite what developers tell you, development fees don't get transferred "straight to the buyer". The price of property is determined by supply and demand, not cost of development.

Is the government's job to deliver services to residents or to provide well paying jobs. Middle class jobs disappeared from Toronto and moved to 905 region over the last 30 years. 905 region has a higher median wage. If the only way the city can increase average income is to increase the pay of its own employees over the longrun we will be no better off than many American cities with declining private sector and no one to pick up the tab for the wage increases and pension benefits

 

[historydude2012]

I hope all this talk of Giambrone is assuming he loses the MPP election. He has no hope if he wins the MPP role then gives it up less than a year later to run for council or Mayor.

The best thing for him career wise, is to win the MPP spot and stay there for at least 2 election cycles.

The last thing people remember right now is the stained couch. A couple years as an MPP and it still gets mentioned, but he should have other accomplishments by then as well.

The NDP have a long way to go in three weeks to win an election in Scarborough-Guildwood. Especially given the fact that its the summer, they placed third in the last election here, and they haven't won a seat in this part of Scarborough in over 20 years (they won seats in the 1990 election). Provided there aren't any big scandal reveals in the next 3 weeks I think the Liberals have this one (but I personally won't be voting for them).

 

[jje1000]

Let's hypothesize this in the real world with real world conditions and factors that are in play: Ford has no team. Kouvalis is out. Ciano is out. Towhey and Nejatian were fired and resigned. The Conservative machine is looking for a candidate to run. Many campaign donors aren't going to support him this time around. Without an experienced team, without financing and being himself wealthy, Ford has created the perfect storm to break campaign finance laws. I understand that he has plenty of free publicity from the media as the incumbent but we can't underestimate the importance of a well organized get out the vote team. Who's going to run it? Doug? His newbie assistants? I'm not convinced that he can mount an effective campaign and so he'll have to rely on name recognition and media soundbites -- and since when was the media fair in cutting soundbites?

You're awfully optimistic (I wish I were), but there's simply too much that could happen. Kouvalis could always come back in the face of an Olivia Chow-Rob Ford mayoral race. He's been able to raise a fair bit of money solely from grassroot sources (he did in the last election). He has a massive amount of name awareness (EVERYONE knows who Ford is), plus a free platform every Sunday to spew his unadulterated views upon listeners. He easily capitalizes on media soundbyte tendancies (no time to fully explain things) He needs no handlers nor really a visible campaign staff- he is who he is. More than that, he has Ford Nation behind him, of whom the majority are older and more likely to vote.

This race will be an uphill climb, so I'd keep my caution way up, focus my attacks on Ford and campaign like I'm behind all the time.

Is the government's job to deliver services to residents or to provide well paying jobs. Middle class jobs disappeared from Toronto and moved to 905 region over the last 30 years. 905 region has a higher median wage. If the only way the city can increase average income is to increase the pay of its own employees over the longrun we will be no better off than many American cities with declining private sector and no one to pick up the tab for the wage increases and pension benefits

It's a good point you raise- government should not be in the business of simply providing higher wages. However, government should also be a more compassionate counterbalance to the harsh, selfish world that is the free-market. In the ideal circumstances, wages for civil servants and workers would be calculated according to living costs + a small amount for savings, totally ignoring private wages as a factor.

 

[Tulse]

Is the government's job to deliver services to residents or to provide well paying jobs.

The government's job is to deliver services well, which it does by providing civil servants with well paying jobs.

People often complain about the level of service they get from the government -- would that be helped by paying staff less?