MetroMan
Senior Member
I would be stunned if he's the left wing's municipal flag bearer in 2014. I think it's Olivia's to lose, and if not her, Peggy Nash or - as I've heard via my NDP friend - Peter Tabuns. Heck, I could see Frances Lankin or even His Blondness himself take another stab at it over Giambrone.
It is highly unlikely there will be more than one left wing candidate given that the NDP always puts their eggs in one camp. In the 2003 election there were still some remaining NDP supporters helping Barbara Hall but the party establishment was fully behind Miller.
I don't think he'd get the NDP machine support he may think he has but I think the odds are looking good that he'll at least enter the race, perhaps not finish it. He's desperate to correct his numbskull mistake. If you know Adam, he's an overachiever, used to being ahead of his peers. He was an accomplished archeologist when most people his age were still trying to buy their first car and became the youngest ever President of the NDP at 24. He was *this* close to having a good shot at becoming the youngest ever Mayor of Toronto and blew it because of well... he blew it. Stupid mistake and I think he wants to put it behind him by either becoming an MPP or by using this by-election to setting up a run for Mayor.
I personally welcome a large field of candidates to make it clear to voters that this isn't the usual incumbent 2nd term re-election. Even if it's just an illusion, having several high profile candidates lets voters know that there's a choice and that we don't have to carry on with the poisonous atmosphere of the last 4 years. If Giambrone runs, I hope he has the good grace to drop out unlike Joe Pantalone if there's little chance of him winning. At this point, I imagine this will be the lineup:
Rob Ford
Olivia Chow
John Tory
Karen Stintz
Adam Giambrone
Giorgio Mammoliti (why not? It worked for him last time)
In that field, there's a good chance that Rob Ford may not even come in second place. John Tory and Olivia Chow have just as much name recognition as Ford and Karen Stintz is close behind. Giambrone would add value to the debates but I think that he'd soon find out that he has no shot if the NDP isn't backing him and bow out in support of Olivia Chow. Mammo would of course stay until he has to file his papers for councillor and use the high level Mayoral election exposure to beat his ward's candidates.
It's hard to say right now but in a 4 way race, I think Karen Stintz wouldn't match up to the other 3 and would do the same as Mammoliti and go back to running for Council. I imagine Olivia and Tory both staying in until the end and if my hunch is correct, Tory would pull a lot of Conservative votes away from Ford -- maybe just enough to put the incumbent in 3rd place -- while taking back most of his 2006 mushy middle supporters. He could beat Olivia but Ford's pull might do him in if Ford Nation sticks around.
EDIT: I just thought of another possibility. Giambrone would mop the floor with Ana Bailão if he decided to run for his old job. Bailão is wounded by her drunk driving charge and at best only has the unwavering support of the Portuguese community. Adam was a popular hands on councillor -- in a way a lot like Rob Ford. He was easy to get a hold of and even though he was busy with the TTC, he was often seen in his ward talking to constituents. If Olivia does run and gets the NDP machine behind her, I can see Giambrone settling for getting his old job back and using it to rebuild his name and reputation for a 2018 or 2022 run for Mayor.
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