The Lakeshore GO line is close to capacity.
false for the railroad. True only for the diesel trains and their logistical/headway limitations. France pushes a lot more people than that over their equivalent of "GO RER".
Lakeshore GO is bottlenecked only because of many factors that are already being solved as we speak.
Within 10 years:
- Signal improvements at Union (under progress!)
- Union will now have 3x the train capacity after 2016 complete revitalization and a few tweaks
- Electricification and 25% faster trains (planned eventual as GO RER)
- Bad track replaced (planned eventual as GO RER)
- New infill stations, interchanges with TTC, etc
- Full right of way all the way to Hamilton (planned eventual as GO RER)
Within 25 years
- Yet more new infill stations, interchanges with TTC, etc.
- Extra underground track through downtown (already proposed in Metrolinx 2031 plan), to be able to go beyond 3x train capacity at Union
Once that is done, we can more than double or triple the passenger capacity of Lakeshore.
We will have a surface subway (15min peak, 5-10min offpeak) all the way to Hamilton, pushing more people than today's Lakeshore diesel GOtrains. Heck, France runs some GO RER routes during peak with mere
3-minute headway (at peak) on exactly the same kind of railroad we have for Lakeshore West. Yes,
Paris double decker trains. Yes, three minute headways. Yes, that's their GOTrain equivalent - it feels like catching a subway! and we can do that with electricified GOtrains after corridor, trackage and signal upgrades, and eventually the proposed train tunnel under Union. Yes, it's a lot of work, modification of the corridor. But it technologically can be done and Metrolinx is already planning it. Much of the starter work is funded and already under way/scheduled. Google "GO RER Metrolinx", google "SmartTrack is GO RER", google "Metrolinx 2031", a wealth of government funded documents and already-approved billions of funds already being allocated towards the GO RER initiative, and the writing is on the wall. The Union revitalization is tripling the size of the GO concourse and tripling capacity, a pretty firm nod at eventual GO RER. The acceleration of Metrolinx initiatives has been rather impressive in the last 10 years. Assuming no cancellation, we might just have enough momentum to SmartTrack all the way to Hamilton in 15 years, with 3-minute double decker trains just like Paris. It exists. For real. Over there. I rode in one! And Ontario is already funding towards it, with Paris as the role model (Paris RER and GO RER is the same acronym -- they stole it from Paris!). It's obvious Ontario wants to copycat the Paris RER, and I welcome it.
Beyond the already-funded initiatives, Go is already proposing to put a 4-track underground tunnel through downtown Toronto in year ~2031. Google "Metrolinx 2031" and you will see they are preliminary planning for this. So we've got some kind of a tunnel anyway -- just for trains, not cars.
Assuming GO RER goes ahead and they "SmartTrack" the Lakeshore corridor with France-style fast-accelerating electric bilevels capable of 3-minute headway:
Based on documents I read, assuming no cancellations or de-funding of already funded monies, and momentum continues for subsequent proposals, these are my realistic predictions:
- Lakeshore GO RER 2025: 5min/15min peak/offpeak to Oakville (electric), 15min/30min peak/offpeak to Hamilton (diesel), 2hr to Niagara Falls (diesel)
- Lakeshore GO RER 2035 (proposed Union 4-track tunnel): 3/6min peak/offpeak to Oakville (electric), 15min/30min offpeak all the way to Hamilton (electric), 30min-1hr to Niagara allday (after new fast growing municipalities created in corridor)
- Gardiner Demolition 2040: Beautiful Lakeshore boulevard with wide sidewalks and landscaped garden-flowers medians, property values skyrocket, funds DRL, even more condos get built and other stuff.
Problem solved (er, mitigated) -- ONLY IF this is done before we demolish the Gardiner. Then I'm satisfied: Go ahead, demolish the Gardiner. We can instead park just a little beyond (at prices far less than downtown) and surface-subway it in. I'm not going to miss Gardiner if there's 3-minute "surface subway" on Lakeshore West GO.
Until then, I'd like to see the Gardiner Tunnel planned. Just in case GO RER is just a dream (that goes poof on the next vote).
DO NOT USE OVERSIZED OR OVERSIZED BOLD