Rail: Ontario-Quebec High Speed Rail Study

[mdrejhon]

Personally, I think any Federal support for HSR will need to focus on multiple corridors simultaneously. In this case, Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal, Calgary-Edmonton, and potentially Vancouver-Seattle. If Mulcair's NDP are to form government, they'll need to make in-roads in Alberta and BC. Promising HSR for Ontario and Quebec only wouldn't be well received out west.

That's certainly very true. If it were to happen, Wynne (whether one likes her or not) is almost certainly sure to very happily co-operate with Mulcair on any windfall of Ontario allocation of rail funding, reducing Ontario-funded cost of GO RER & introducing HSR funding. Tory appears willing to encourage things along.

It is likely a minority government no matter the color. The NDP-Liberals would have enough combined seats to to co-operate on rail safety and expansion issues, and ram a few rail expansions through federally.

Historically, Canadian minority governments have apparently been excellent at "getting things done", no matter what color is leading (IIRC, the 1 billion VIA expansion, including near Kingston, occured during a Conservative minority government!)

 

[TrickyRicky]

Instead of looking at China with envy, you guys should be happy to live in Canada where we haven't built anything yet! Demographic projections hold that China's population will be 4% smaller than today by 2030. They will need all the infrastructure they can build but very soon they will pass the peak potential of their system. In the mean time Canada's population will grow 16% and we won't even have started building out our systems. Lots more projects to talk a about for decades to come here in backward Canada !

 

[nfitz]

Instead of looking at China with envy, you guys should be happy to live in Canada where we haven't built anything yet! Demographic projections hold that China's population will be 4% smaller than today by 2030. They will need all the infrastructure they can build but very soon they will pass the peak potential of their system.

Doesn't that assume that the rural to urban movement in China will freeze? I'd assume that with a 4% smaller total population, you'd still be looking at city growth.

 

[innsertnamehere]

Exactly. I would expect rural china to continue its population decline for many decades, and becoming the primary contributor towards the population loss the country will begin to experience in the coming years.

 

[gweed123]

So today Trudeau made it quite clear that he was prepared to run a deficit in order to invest in infrastructure. Although he didn't spell out exactly what projects or even types of projects he would fund, I would think that HSR would be right in the wheelhouse for that kind of funding. It would pass through a boatload of ridings, and is really important on an inter-regional and national scale.

I'm really interested to see what projects he has in mind for this funding. Infrastructure investment is one of the few things I'm ok with running a deficit for, because it's been sorely underinvested in over the decades.

 

[Tuscani01]

So today Trudeau made it quite clear that he was prepared to run a deficit in order to invest in infrastructure. Although he didn't spell out exactly what projects or even types of projects he would fund, I would think that HSR would be right in the wheelhouse for that kind of funding. It would pass through a boatload of ridings, and is really important on an inter-regional and national scale.

I'm really interested to see what projects he has in mind for this funding. Infrastructure investment is one of the few things I'm ok with running a deficit for, because it's been sorely underinvested in over the decades.

He doesn't have any projects in mind for the funding. He has said it is up to provinces/municipalities to decide what projects get funding. If Ontario wants to prioritize HSR, that's entirely up to Ontario.

 

[gweed123]

He doesn't have any projects in mind for the funding. He has said it is up to provinces/municipalities to decide what projects get funding. If Ontario wants to prioritize HSR, that's entirely up to Ontario.

Gotcha. I didn't see the speech itself, just the news articles analyzing it. That's a little vague though. What I was at least hoping for was an Ontario-style division of the funding pot (i.e. $15B for the GTHA, $14B for the rest of Ontario). In this case though, it would be $A billion for Atlantic Canada, $B billion for Quebec, $C billion for Ontario, etc. In order to ensure parity, some kind of formula to determine the percentage of the pie would probably be in order. That way Ontario would know exactly how much it was getting from the Feds, which they could simply add to the existing GTHA/non-GTHA pots of money for projects, allowing them to either a) get more projects funded that are already on the list, or b) add projects to the list.

Now having said that, I wouldn't be surprised if there were a few "federal" projects that the Feds would prefer to fund outside of the Provinces. HSR would probably be one of those. Expansions to places like airports would probably be another.

 

[DonValleyRainbow]

I don't think Trudeau is prepared to rattle off specific projects during the campaign. Many of the references to public transit came off as the kinds of things Ontario and municipalities would handle. There was part of the LPC brochure that caught my eye though:

A large part of Canada’s 20th century prosperity was made possible by nation-building projects – projects that without leadership from the government of Canada would not have been possible.

To me, that opens the door to HSR.

 

[wopchop]

I would like to see a joint venture between Quebec and Ontario for HSR. This would probably put a lot more political weight against the Feds to help convince them to provide investment.

 

[TOareaFan]

Gotcha. I didn't see the speech itself, just the news articles analyzing it. That's a little vague though. What I was at least hoping for was an Ontario-style division of the funding pot (i.e. $15B for the GTHA, $14B for the rest of Ontario). In this case though, it would be $A billion for Atlantic Canada, $B billion for Quebec, $C billion for Ontario, etc. In order to ensure parity, some kind of formula to determine the percentage of the pie would probably be in order. That way Ontario would know exactly how much it was getting from the Feds, which they could simply add to the existing GTHA/non-GTHA pots of money for projects, allowing them to either a) get more projects funded that are already on the list, or b) add projects to the list.

Now having said that, I wouldn't be surprised if there were a few "federal" projects that the Feds would prefer to fund outside of the Provinces. HSR would probably be one of those. Expansions to places like airports would probably be another.

so, Ontario has +/- 40% of the population.....how does that win him votes across the country when he says "of the additional $60B I propose to spend, $24B will be in Ontario......PEI, you get 200mil"........better, from a vote getting point of view, to let everyone think they are all getting $60B

 

[innsertnamehere]

yup, the reason Wynne did the split was because everyone in the province would have assumed all the money would go to Toronto, so she seperated half of it out specifically to say "hey, we don't spend all our money in one place!".

For the Feds, that is less of an issue. Nobody automatically assumes 100% of the money is going to go to Toronto / Ontario.

 

[gweed123]

Good points gents. I just figured announcing specific projects would help, especially in swing ridings. One of the biggest swings in Ottawa during the last Provincial election was Wynne saying she would fund Phase II of the Confederation Line, while Hudak flip-flopped on it. If you're going big on infrastructure spending, you force the other parties to pony up the same dough, or make a tough sell on why that project shouldn't be funded. HSR could be a big play for cities, and it's a big ticket promise that would be hard to match for the other two parties given their pledge to maintain a balanced budget.

 

[44 North]

Pardon my Toronto-centric lack of knowledge on this topic. But where are we in terms of HSR? Is an EA underway, or has the whole thing been shelved? Awhile back I found myself reading the London Free Press, and it seemed to me the city is fairly gung ho on the whole thing. But I believe since that time they put forward a BRT plan, which could be more of a near-term goal for them.

As well, part of me thinks that HSR has now become a wholly Prov project (when really it should be predominantly Fed). But because the Prov is on thin ice as it is, Trudeau and the Fed Liberals don't want to be seen alongside or siding with their Prov counterpart too much. So I don't envision a good fate for HSR in this decade (but hopefully I'm wrong).

 

[ssiguy2]

The London BRT is the MUNICIPLE transit proposal for London. It would involve 2 routes and the city wants LRT and now that Hamilton just got their LRT paid for without having to contribute a nickel, Londoners will be rightfully looking for the same.

London has the 4th busiest transit systems in the province and is ahead of Hamilton despite Hamilton's transit serving 30% more people. London has the 3rd highest per-capita ridership in the province after Tor/Ott and ahead of much larger Mississauga.

Anyway, Londoners are very hyped for the HSR to Toronto via Kit/Pearson. There will be a lot of lost votes if it doesn't go ahead and there would be hell to pay if it goes ahead but only to Kitchener with the London section coming "later". Windsor is already pushing hard for an extension which does make some good sense.

As far as HSR. I have never been a huge fan. I guess it depends on how much it costs but if they can get a fairly fast system at a "reasonable" price then I think it's a good idea. One thing to remember thou is that if Ont/PQ get HSR funding that funding will have to be tempered with needed funding for Cal/Edm HSR.

HSR is a no go politically unless it includes something for Cal/Edm or it will be seen as nothing more than an Eastern handout while people in the rest of the country have basically no VIA service to speak of.

 

[TOareaFan]

But because the Prov is on thin ice as it is, Trudeau and the Fed Liberals don't want to be seen alongside or siding with their Prov counterpart too much. So I don't envision a good fate for HSR in this decade (but hopefully I'm wrong).

That is not what I am reading/hearing.....as I understand it, Justin's campaign has been spending a lot of time with the Wynne folks....both the elected folks and the behind the scenes folks that got them elected.....to try and turn around the ship and move up from 3rd place in the polling.

It may be coincidence, or it may be not, but after spending that time the two big announcements this week by him were an extra tax break for teachers and deficit spending to invest in infrastructure. Happy teachers and building bridges and transit should ring very familiar to Ontarians