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Premier Doug Ford's Ontario

It's the same performative, substance-free crap that he and his imbecile brother wallowed in while they were infesting City Hall. The Fords' notion of governing really is a combination of openly and unashamedly shoveling as much money as possible to their corrupt friends while attempting to use these carnival barker stunts to cover for that. But is anyone really stupid enough to fall for it?
 
It's the same performative, substance-free crap that he and his imbecile brother wallowed in while they were infesting City Hall. The Fords' notion of governing really is a combination of openly and unashamedly shoveling as much money as possible to their corrupt friends while attempting to use these carnival barker stunts to cover for that. But is anyone really stupid enough to fall for it?
Sure, the same folks who voted him in with buck a beer, and since the remaining two parties were too busy fighting and finger pointing to each other, the folks voted him in. Same thing will happen this time around.
 


Polling conducted last week by Abacus Data finds 37 per cent of respondents supporting Ford and the Ontario PC Party, with 28 per cent favouring the Ontario Liberals under Steven Del Duca and 25 per cent backing Andrea Horwath's NDP.
The PC lead in the Abacus poll comes even though 46 per cent of respondents said they have a negative impression of Ford and 50 per cent said it's time for a change in government.
 
There you go - this moronic asshole is likely going to get re-elected due to vote-splitting on the left.
No, if anything it's because the majority that is split between the two parties isn't used to form a coalition government.
 
No, if anything it's because the majority that is split between the two parties isn't used to form a coalition government.

This is not accurate.

It would suggest that the Libs and NDP together would hold a majority of seats; that is not the current projection.

You can't form a coalition gov't on the basis of majority of the vote; one, among many drawbacks of our FPTP electoral system.
 
There you go - this moronic asshole is likely going to get re-elected due to vote-splitting on the left.

Possible, but premature.

His negatives are very high (in the poll); and the change sentiment is strong.

That makes him vulnerable.

But it would require voters to coalesce around one of the two other 'major' parties, at least regionally.

But we're not talking a huge shift here; a drop of at little as 3 points all but assures a minority for anyone.

A drop of six points, and the Conservatives are likely on their way out.

That's very obtainable.
 
I sort of see the writing on the wall here... A reduced PC government in terms of seat count, perhaps down to a minority, but a PC government under Ford nonetheless. The NDP losing official opposition status, but holding about 30 of their seats. And the Liberals being the only party making gains, significant too and regaining party status, but not enough to stop the PCs.

Elections can change things though, and perhaps this one will too.
 
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BTW "Snowshovelgate" reminded me of something: has anyone noticed that DoFo's been strangely constrained in his surfing Sun Media populism since he became Premier? Could it be that the adults in the room (or his awareness of the same) have tied him back in exercising that instinct--or could it be that said populism's more an artifact of the RoFo era? Y'know, back when Don Cherry still reigned and SunTV as "Fox News North" was still a thing and people still consumed legacy media like, well...the Toronto Sun. I mean, the Sunosphere seems presently pretty wan compared to a decade ago, while Rebel Media's a bit too hot to handle and the general trajectory of Canuckistani right-populism has been t/w the lunatic-Bernierite, echoing Trumpist and nativist patterns elsewhere.. Essentially, the Doug vs Krista generation gap illuminates the dilemma here--and probably ensures that we *won't* be seeing the electable political baton being passed on to the next generation (unless Kara, the quietest of the K's, is where such hope lies).
 
And the Liberals being the only party making gains, significant too and regaining party status, but not enough to stop the PCs.
The OLP will go through the same experience as the LPC after PM Paul Martin’s defeat to Harper in 2006, with a failed Dion attempt in 2008 followed by a failed Ignatieff attempt in 2011, before the LPC victory with Trudeau in 2015. If this bodes true, we‘ll see Del Duca claw the OLP from the brink, likely to the detriment of the NDP. The OLP will then toss him out and replace Del Duca with some woke, progressive academic type who will do even worse in the next election and be quickly tossed, followed by victory in the third attempt by a new leader when Ontarians are thoroughly tired of Ford.
 
BTW "Snowshovelgate" reminded me of something: has anyone noticed that DoFo's been strangely constrained in his surfing Sun Media populism since he became Premier? Could it be that the adults in the room (or his awareness of the same) have tied him back in exercising that instinct--or could it be that said populism's more an artifact of the RoFo era? Y'know, back when Don Cherry still reigned and SunTV as "Fox News North" was still a thing and people still consumed legacy media like, well...the Toronto Sun. I mean, the Sunosphere seems presently pretty wan compared to a decade ago, while Rebel Media's a bit too hot to handle and the general trajectory of Canuckistani right-populism has been t/w the lunatic-Bernierite, echoing Trumpist and nativist patterns elsewhere.. Essentially, the Doug vs Krista generation gap illuminates the dilemma here--and probably ensures that we *won't* be seeing the electable political baton being passed on to the next generation (unless Kara, the quietest of the K's, is where such hope lies).
Ford is relying heavily on advice from Kory Teneycke and Nick Kouvalis. So much so that Canadaland claims staffers are saying that it's Teneycke running the whole show. Kouvalis is the one pushing the lockdowns as a signal of Ford's "strength". For someone who says he doesn't care about polls, Kouvalis is doing a *lot* of polling in Ford's name.

Part of me feels Ford's Winter Shovelling Spectacular was the DoFo version of his brother's "I wasn’t lying. You didn’t ask the correct questions."-type of public rebellious action.

 

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