PM Mark Carney's Canada

[adma]

If there is a by-election in Edmonton Riverbend in 2026, the LPC has strong odds of taking it, especially as many of the nearly 5% of NDP supporters in 2025 may move to Carney.

Given how bottomed-out the NDP was already in '25 (not to mention the strength of their provincial counterparts), I suspect that it'll be more at the expense of the Cons--particularly as the Libs under Carney are already more of a palatably "Progressive Conservative" kind of party. (IOW let's not make too much of the CPC vote in urban Alberta being monolithic and inelastic)

 

[Admiral Beez]

(IOW let's not make too much of the CPC vote in urban Alberta being monolithic and inelastic)

Agreed, but province wide. For starters, a full half of the population of Alberta was born either in other Canadian provinces or overseas. I have to think that the Wildrose and CPC vision in Alberta has much less appeal to recent arrivals. The MAGA-lite demographic of “blood and soil” Albertans may be louder, but it is smaller than we may suppose. The next provincial election (must be held by Oct 2027) should be an interesting bellwether.

 

[Jonny5]

Good point from the CBC At Issue panel that while Pierre Poilievre and Jenny Byrne still seem to be content working to remove "not real Conservatives" from the party, Mark Carney is trying to include anyone he can, at least to a certain point. So Poilievre is trying to remove people from his big tent while Carney is trying to add people to his big tent.

There's a lot of Red Tories in the Maritimes, and urban centres, specifically the 905, Winnipeg, Edmonton, and Lower Mainland BC who would never see themselves as a part of Justin Trudeau's Liberals, but now see that they could be a part of Mark Careny's Liberals, and they feel alienated by the Conservative leaders and their ideological purity tests. A prime example is Doug Ford, who basically decided to be best buds with Carney and told Poilievre to FO. Now, you can debate all that and how allying with Doug Ford is questionable at best, but the realpolitik here is the Liberals would love the opposition to force an election because they think they would win, with ease, and Doug Ford would not explicitly endorse Carney, but he also would not endorse Poilievre. He would simply say nothing.

To summarise, what's going on is an internal battle unfolding for the soul of the Conservative party. Do they go full Trump, or do they go back to the Joe Clark/Brian Mulroney Progressive Conservative era.

In any case, for the immediate future the NDP are the lynch pin here, as they have no leader and really really do not want an election now. I suspect they all get sick or stuck in an elevator on the day of third reading of budget vote, even though they are on record they would not "vote in favour" of the budget, they way out is they don't show up so they don't vote against it.

Also there's Elizabeth May, but everything I've read is essentially everyone in federal politics is simply done with her, and they won't spend any time caring about what she has to say. That party she built had a great opportunity to advance around eight years ago and then they self-destructed because of her and their voter base requiring their own ideological purity.

 

[UtakataNoAnnex]

^/popcorn.

 

[adma]

Agreed, but province wide. For starters, a full half of the population of Alberta was born either in other Canadian provinces or overseas. I have to think that the Wildrose and CPC vision in Alberta has much less appeal to recent arrivals. The MAGA-lite demographic of “blood and soil” Albertans may be louder, but it is smaller than we may suppose. The next provincial election (must be held by Oct 2027) should be an interesting bellwether.

I should have said, *supposedly* monolithic and inelastic, to emphasize that I was emphasizing mythology over reality. And the '15 provincial election and its long tail is already proof of how myth does not match reality.

And provincially speaking, the die has already been cast within Edmonton, which has been a wall of solid or near-solid NDP since '15, But barring a miraculous recovery and/or Heather McPherson leadership, that dynamic will likelier translate to the Liberals federally.

But also re the past fed election: don't be so sure about recent arrivals--the most S Asian parts of Calgary and Edmonton actually swung *to* the PoilievreCons, somewhat echoing patterns in Brampton and Surrey.

 

[wopchop]

Pierre Poilievre, the leader of the Conservative Party in Canada, had refused to obtain a top-secret security clearance, believing it would limit his ability to criticize the government on national security issues. Has he obtained the security clearance yet?

As far as I know, Skippy has not. Because he is a total knob.

 

[wopchop]

Yesterday Matt Jeneroux had the province of where his house is leaked by the Conservative Party. Doxxed. That is bordering on illegal.

Source?

 

[Admiral Beez]

Good point from the CBC At Issue panel that while Pierre Poilievre and Jenny Byrne still seem to be content working to remove "not real Conservatives" from the party,

I would have thought after the thrashing loss in the last election that Jenny Byrne would been tossed onto the Katie Telford bonfire of former backroom operatives.

 

[Admiral Beez]

But also re the past fed election: don't be so sure about recent arrivals--the most S Asian parts of Calgary and Edmonton actually swung *to* the PoilievreCons, somewhat echoing patterns in Brampton and Surrey.

Carney’s ignoring the concerns over crime didn’t help. If he can get bail and sentences reforms passed, Carney will do better in round 2.

 

[kEiThZ]

I have to think that the Wildrose and CPC vision in Alberta has much less appeal to recent arrivals.

You'd think so. But there's nobody more zealous than a recent convert. And the folks who move to Alberta are already self-selecting.

 

[thettctransitfanatic]

Source?

 

[adma]

You'd think so. But there's nobody more zealous than a recent convert. And the folks who move to Alberta are already self-selecting.

But let's remember that CPC/UPC *is* still something of a big tent; and a lot of the ethno/new arrivals in Alberta have fundamentally more in common with Ford Nation, which itself has become an emblem of the ethnoburban shift to the right. (Plus, whatever the ethnicity, there's a different element of self-selection in choosing suburban over urban environments--which is in part why the Libs in Calgary swapped a suburban seat for an urban seat)

 

[thettctransitfanatic]

First poll post-floor crossing and resignation from Liaison Strategies has a 8 point Liberal lead, 44 to 36%, with a 2 point bump for the Liberals and 2 point loss for the Conservatives. The Liberals have a massive 23 point lead in the Atlantic provinces, a 17 point lead in Quebec, a 14 point lead in Ontario and a 10 point lead in British Columbia.

More Canadians now say the opposition is playing politics rather than acting responsibly, up seven points from before the budget. Some of this is almost certainly tied to election speculation, and the past week’s focus on internal Conservative politics likely contributed as well. Even among Conservative voters, 67 percent say the opposition parties are playing politics.

 

[Mihairokov]

First poll post-floor crossing and resignation from Liaison Strategies has a 8 point Liberal lead, 44 to 36%, with a 2 point bump for the Liberals and 2 point loss for the Conservatives.

Abacus has the Conservatives leading by 1 federally today, which is actually a decline from their previous poll with a CPC lead of 2. The topline for both Abacus and Liasion are within MOE.

Abacus Data Poll: Budget Lands Softly as Political Deadlock Continues - Abacus Data

%

abacusdata.ca

Even despite this heavy CPC slant they still have Poilievre's impressions in the negative, with his negative impression reaching April 2025's all-time highs for their polling.

 

[Towered]

I was surprised the CPC didn't turf PP after single handedly blowing a huge lead just weeks before the election. They're going nowhere with that unelectable fool at the helm.