News   Dec 05, 2025
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News   Dec 05, 2025
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PM Mark Carney's Canada

Not sure how this crossing the floor thing makes sense. In parliamentary politics, voters primarily vote for the party platform, less so for the candidates. Almost feel that if the crossing happens, it should be deemed as a resignation and a by-election be automatically triggered.
No, in parliamentary democracy, you elect a local representative to act as your agent and representative in the HoC. They are empowered to change their party affiliation if the circumstances dictate it.

Some people try to jam the reality of representative parliamentary democracy into a pseudo presidential frame where MPs are just an electoral college for the PM who acts as president. That may be how people think the system works, but it is not how it works in reality. We should be reinforcing the parliamentary role of MPs and empowering them, not making them meat puppets to rubber stamp the party leaders.
 
The meh: I get the need for a competitive tax environment for businesses and to boost productivity, but we already tried Accelerated Capital Cost Depreciation under Harper and it didn't move the needle on productivity. Business that is unambitious and reliant on simply being lower cost due to labour is unlikely to make the investments in plant, equipment and training that will level them up. If we were to go the tax competitiveness route, I would rather eliminate many existing tax credits, raise the small business rate, but lower the general corporate rate. The idea would be to create the same marginal tax rate achieve through this budget but without market-distorting effects.

Raising taxes while companies are being pressured to move to the US? Bold move for sure.

No reductions in OAS or the Old Age Amount for higher income seniors,

And there will be nothing like this while they are in a minority. It would probably be a redline for every potential partner. Hopefully, if they get a majority, they go for it over the next 2-3 years.

The transit infra. component is not as good as it first appears as they are rolling the existing program into it. We're still not really hearing clarity on nation-building, paradigm-shifting infra. projects.

Good. Time for the feds to stop doing work that the provinces should be doing. It would also reduce the incentive for outlandish proposals like Ford's tunnel. Or the tendency to simply cave to every local demand. The feds need to give some funding so that MPs have ribbon cuttings. No need to have it be substantial at all. We will never building anything of national significance while the feds are scrambling to fund local trams.

Also, I wouldn't expect clarity on the national projects in the budget. They have absolutely massive allocations for those. But it'll go through another agency. The CIB, for example, saw their allocation go up to $45B. And there's several billion in defence and security infrastructure that will now go through the Defence Investment Agency. I would expect more on this as these individual projects mature.
 
Not sure how this crossing the floor thing makes sense. In parliamentary politics, voters primarily vote for the party platform, less so for the candidates. Almost feel that if the crossing happens, it should be deemed as a resignation and a by-election be automatically triggered.

Theoretically - in practice, we have seen a number of elections where the platforms were barely released, if at all - that's not even taking about the fiction some of these platforms were.

AoD
 
Raising taxes while companies are being pressured to move to the US? Bold move for sure.

The intent was not to suggest raising taxes on a net basis, as I clearly stated.

It was preference for lowering the general corporate tax rate, rather than accelerated capital cost depreciation, and raising the small business rate, but directly applying to a lower general rate.

Studies have indicated that many businesses feel the existing structure punishes companies that grow.
 
And there will be nothing like this while they are in a minority. It would probably be a redline for every potential partner. Hopefully, if they get a majority, they go for it over the next 2-3 years.
Saw a recent poll indicating that the Liberals were doing best with the 60+ cohort, so it would be a risky move. However, Carney hasn't seemed worried about political ramifications in several of this decisions so far so i could see him doing it anyway.
 
Another one bites the dust.. Conservative MP Matt Jeneroux has resigned from Parliament from his seat in Edmonton Riverbend.


Not sure this does much for the dynamics. He's in an Alberta riding, it'll just get another Conservative MP. What's the math on one fewer member voting on the budget? I believe it's still 171, whereas if that member sill voted it would be 171 plus the Speaker. Carney still needs to find one more MP to either cross the aisle or "get stuck in the elevator" during the vote.
 
Not sure this does much for the dynamics. He's in an Alberta riding, it'll just get another Conservative MP. What's the math on one fewer member voting on the budget? I believe it's still 171, whereas if that member sill voted it would be 171 plus the Speaker. Carney still needs to find one more MP to either cross the aisle or "get stuck in the elevator" during the vote.
Without any Opposition support and adjusting for the Speaker, the Liberals are now down 169-172

4 abstentions (or 3 abstentions plus the Speaker) or 2 Yes votes gets the Budget through
 
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Not sure this does much for the dynamics. He's in an Alberta riding, it'll just get another Conservative MP. What's the math on one fewer member voting on the budget? I believe it's still 171, whereas if that member sill voted it would be 171 plus the Speaker. Carney still needs to find one more MP to either cross the aisle or "get stuck in the elevator" during the vote.
Urban Alberta. The margin of victory over the LPC was 5 pts.

 
Not sure this does much for the dynamics. He's in an Alberta riding, it'll just get another Conservative MP. What's the math on one fewer member voting on the budget? I believe it's still 171, whereas if that member sill voted it would be 171 plus the Speaker. Carney still needs to find one more MP to either cross the aisle or "get stuck in the elevator" during the vote.
The trend is notable though. Rumors have been rife of several possible conservative floor crossers. Pierre and co have put heavy pressure on possible defectors to stem the tide, so instead of floor crossing they could just respond by resigning. If they're from competitive ridings, then it'll make things interesting.
 
Urban Alberta. The margin of victory over the LPC was 5 pts.
Indeed. Edmonton is Carney's home town and a growing LPC strong point. Edmonton Centre has been Liberal since 2021, and with the exception of the NDP stronghold of Edmonton Strathcona where the LPC came a distant third in this year's federal election, the LPC came a strong second; winning 44% of the vote in Jeneroux's riding of Edmonton Riverbend, 40% in Edmonton West, 39% in Edmonton Southeast, 38% in Edmonton Northwest, 37% in Edmonton Gateway, 35% in Edmonton Manning, and 34% in Edmonton Griesbach. Those are all strong numbers, showing growing support for the LPC in the Edmonton region. If there is a by-election in Edmonton Riverbend in 2026, the LPC has strong odds of taking it, especially as many of the nearly 5% of NDP supporters in 2025 may move to Carney.
 
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