Admiral Beez
Superstar
Citizens in western democracies do not want middle of the road governments. They want hard right and hard left, swinging the wheel like we're fishtailing and spinning down an icy highway.
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PM Justin Trudeau's Canada
- Thread starter King of Kensington
- Start date
jje1000
Senior Member
To this point:
Change in the United States and the prospect of tariffs imposed by Canada's largest trading partner have done little to shift the voting intentions in this country, according to some pollsters.
“The year’s looking like it's going to end very much like it started with the Conservatives,” said David Coletto, CEO and chair of Abacus Data. “In our most recent survey, they’re leading by over 20 points, leading in every region except in Quebec, leading across every demographic group–young people, older Canadians, men and women.”
The polling narrative throughout 2024 has been one of the Conservatives holding a double-digit national lead. A Dec. 3 Nanos weekly tracking survey showed the party had the support of 42 per cent of respondents, compared to 23.4 per cent for the Liberals, 20.6 per cent for the NDP, 6.8 per cent for the Bloc Québécois, 4.1 per cent for the Green Party, and 2.3 per cent for the People’s Party.
In comparison, a Nanos survey published on Jan. 9 showed the Conservatives enjoyed 38.3 per cent support at that time, the Liberals 26.4 per cent, the NDP 20.5 per cent, the Bloc 7.4 per cent, the Green Party 4.2 per cent, and the People’s Party 2.1 per cent.
As for the leaders of the parties, an Abacus Data poll published on Nov. 20 showed Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre holds a net impression score of plus-three, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh (Burnaby South, B.C.) has a net favourability of minus-seven, and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (Papineau, Que.) has a net score of minus-38.
The figures for Poilievre and Trudeau were relatively similar to those in an Abacus survey from Jan. 11–plus-six for the Conservative leader, and minus-34 for the prime minister, in what was noted at the time was “the worst we’ve ever measured.”
Coletto said the Conservatives’ lead started to increase in mid-2023, after an interest rate rise and shortly before Trudeau shuffled his cabinet. Other events in the life of the Trudeau government that shifted the needle included the SNC-Lavalin scandal that ended the Liberals’ prolonged honeymoon, and the onset of the pandemic that altered political alignments at a provincial and federal level.
“From an aggregate public opinion perspective, something has to happen that causes millions of people to say, ‘Well, now I have a different view of the world and of the political choices that I have available to me,’” he said. “And so I don't think we should expect public opinion to shift all that much from week to week, even month to month.”
Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs, said that even major events may be less likely to improve the situation for the Liberals.
“What's happened is it's no longer the message, it's really the messenger, and people really want change,” he said. “Seventy-five per cent of people that we poll on surveys say they want a new party in charge, so everything that's coming out of Ottawa these days is basically discounted—good, bad or indifferent.”
“It's really difficult for a government when the public just stops listening, and that's basically what's happened.”
Prior to the victory of U.S. president-elect Donald Trump last month, there had been questions as to whether the Republicans’ return to the White House could have an impact on Trudeau and the Liberals’ fortunes.
In the aftermath of the U.S. election last month, the prime minister and his ministers have sought to contrast Trudeau’s previous experience dealing with Trump’s first four years in office with the Conservatives.
“Do we trust the guy who renegotiated NAFTA with Mr. Trump, the guy who secured the border during the pandemic of the century and the guy who went down to president-elect Trump's playing field to fight for Canadians to secure the border, or do we trust the guy who spent 20 years making up interesting rhymes and spent 20 years securing one and only one thing, his own paycheque and a bloated pension?” Immigration Minister Marc Miller (Ville-Marie-Le Sud-Ouest-Île-des-Soeurs, Que.) said during Question Period on Dec. 4.
So far, however, Trump’s forthcoming return to the White House has done little to change voting intentions among Canadians.
An Abacus poll late last month also suggested that Canadians believed Poilievre could deliver better outcomes for this country when dealing with Trump, with 45 per cent compared to 20 per cent for Trudeau. Respondents were more split on the approach to take against Trump. Some 42 per cent were more likely to vote for somebody who was best able to work with the president-elect, while 39 per cent would prefer somebody who stood up to Trump.
“If you don't think Justin Trudeau and the Liberals can handle the housing crisis or improving the economy, you're unlikely to believe he also can handle Canada-U.S. relations with the Trump administration,” Coletto said.
Bricker said that everything related to Trump was currently a hypothetical. He did not expect public opinion would shift substantially unless Trump’s threats–for example, imposing a 25 per cent tariff on all Canadian and Mexican imports to the United States–were actually enacted.
“That'll certainly get people's attention, but whether or not it's the type of attention that changes their views about their federal political choices is another question,” he said. “There's this sense among the people who closely watch this, and particularly Liberals who closely watch this, that this is a big opportunity for Trudeau to differentiate himself from Pierre Poilievre. But at the moment, there's no sense of that.”
Back in Canada, the appetite for change is not having a positive effect on the NDP’s electoral fortunes, Bricker said. While the party’s fortunes would usually improve at the expense of the Liberals when there was a desire for change, Bricker argued the recent closeness to the incumbents resulted in a lack of distinctiveness in the eyes of constituents.
“I would argue there's really only been one Liberal government: it was the 2015 to 2019 government. From 2019 through to today, the NDP and Liberals have basically governed together, operating almost as one party, except during the time of an election campaign,” he said. “So the NDP is not benefiting at all from the decline of the Liberal Party. If they're going to suggest themselves as an alternative to the Liberals–a different or better type of change—they've kind of given away their distinctiveness.”
Coletto said surveys Abacus had taken since the now-suspended supply and confidence agreement was signed between the Liberals and NDP suggested that many respondents saw little difference between the two parties. He said continuing to pitch themselves as a genuine alternative was the NDP’s greatest challenge among those voters.
“Are we seeing evidence that it's working? I don't think quite yet, but we are in our tracking seeing that Jagmeet Singh's favourables are starting to improve,” he said. “That might be a signal that there is perhaps opportunity and even hope, I think, for New Democrats that they can find themselves in a position where they can gain some support and take advantage of the Liberal Party's weakness.”
As for the Conservatives, a replication of the party’s polling data at a federal election would translate to a large majority in the House of Commons. Though they do not need it, Bricker said it was unlikely the party’s fortunes would improve much further, owing to what he described as a high floor and low ceiling for the party.
“The likelihood that they're going to move much higher than they are would only be if the Liberal and NDP vote, particularly the Liberal vote, just stays home, so then maybe their numbers would go up,” he said.
At the same time, with progressive voters generally constituting a larger cohort than conservative voters, the Liberals have a low floor and high ceiling split with the NDP, Bricker said.
“The progressive vote tends to outweigh the conservative vote by at least 10 points. So it tends to be say 55-45,” he said. “But the progressive vote is split between the Liberals and the NDP, so the Conservatives are pretty much at their high watermark at the moment.”
“The year’s looking like it's going to end very much like it started with the Conservatives,” said David Coletto, CEO and chair of Abacus Data. “In our most recent survey, they’re leading by over 20 points, leading in every region except in Quebec, leading across every demographic group–young people, older Canadians, men and women.”
The polling narrative throughout 2024 has been one of the Conservatives holding a double-digit national lead. A Dec. 3 Nanos weekly tracking survey showed the party had the support of 42 per cent of respondents, compared to 23.4 per cent for the Liberals, 20.6 per cent for the NDP, 6.8 per cent for the Bloc Québécois, 4.1 per cent for the Green Party, and 2.3 per cent for the People’s Party.
In comparison, a Nanos survey published on Jan. 9 showed the Conservatives enjoyed 38.3 per cent support at that time, the Liberals 26.4 per cent, the NDP 20.5 per cent, the Bloc 7.4 per cent, the Green Party 4.2 per cent, and the People’s Party 2.1 per cent.
As for the leaders of the parties, an Abacus Data poll published on Nov. 20 showed Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre holds a net impression score of plus-three, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh (Burnaby South, B.C.) has a net favourability of minus-seven, and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (Papineau, Que.) has a net score of minus-38.
The figures for Poilievre and Trudeau were relatively similar to those in an Abacus survey from Jan. 11–plus-six for the Conservative leader, and minus-34 for the prime minister, in what was noted at the time was “the worst we’ve ever measured.”
Coletto said the Conservatives’ lead started to increase in mid-2023, after an interest rate rise and shortly before Trudeau shuffled his cabinet. Other events in the life of the Trudeau government that shifted the needle included the SNC-Lavalin scandal that ended the Liberals’ prolonged honeymoon, and the onset of the pandemic that altered political alignments at a provincial and federal level.
“From an aggregate public opinion perspective, something has to happen that causes millions of people to say, ‘Well, now I have a different view of the world and of the political choices that I have available to me,’” he said. “And so I don't think we should expect public opinion to shift all that much from week to week, even month to month.”
Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs, said that even major events may be less likely to improve the situation for the Liberals.
“What's happened is it's no longer the message, it's really the messenger, and people really want change,” he said. “Seventy-five per cent of people that we poll on surveys say they want a new party in charge, so everything that's coming out of Ottawa these days is basically discounted—good, bad or indifferent.”
“It's really difficult for a government when the public just stops listening, and that's basically what's happened.”
Prior to the victory of U.S. president-elect Donald Trump last month, there had been questions as to whether the Republicans’ return to the White House could have an impact on Trudeau and the Liberals’ fortunes.
In the aftermath of the U.S. election last month, the prime minister and his ministers have sought to contrast Trudeau’s previous experience dealing with Trump’s first four years in office with the Conservatives.
“Do we trust the guy who renegotiated NAFTA with Mr. Trump, the guy who secured the border during the pandemic of the century and the guy who went down to president-elect Trump's playing field to fight for Canadians to secure the border, or do we trust the guy who spent 20 years making up interesting rhymes and spent 20 years securing one and only one thing, his own paycheque and a bloated pension?” Immigration Minister Marc Miller (Ville-Marie-Le Sud-Ouest-Île-des-Soeurs, Que.) said during Question Period on Dec. 4.
So far, however, Trump’s forthcoming return to the White House has done little to change voting intentions among Canadians.
An Abacus poll late last month also suggested that Canadians believed Poilievre could deliver better outcomes for this country when dealing with Trump, with 45 per cent compared to 20 per cent for Trudeau. Respondents were more split on the approach to take against Trump. Some 42 per cent were more likely to vote for somebody who was best able to work with the president-elect, while 39 per cent would prefer somebody who stood up to Trump.
“If you don't think Justin Trudeau and the Liberals can handle the housing crisis or improving the economy, you're unlikely to believe he also can handle Canada-U.S. relations with the Trump administration,” Coletto said.
Bricker said that everything related to Trump was currently a hypothetical. He did not expect public opinion would shift substantially unless Trump’s threats–for example, imposing a 25 per cent tariff on all Canadian and Mexican imports to the United States–were actually enacted.
“That'll certainly get people's attention, but whether or not it's the type of attention that changes their views about their federal political choices is another question,” he said. “There's this sense among the people who closely watch this, and particularly Liberals who closely watch this, that this is a big opportunity for Trudeau to differentiate himself from Pierre Poilievre. But at the moment, there's no sense of that.”
Back in Canada, the appetite for change is not having a positive effect on the NDP’s electoral fortunes, Bricker said. While the party’s fortunes would usually improve at the expense of the Liberals when there was a desire for change, Bricker argued the recent closeness to the incumbents resulted in a lack of distinctiveness in the eyes of constituents.
“I would argue there's really only been one Liberal government: it was the 2015 to 2019 government. From 2019 through to today, the NDP and Liberals have basically governed together, operating almost as one party, except during the time of an election campaign,” he said. “So the NDP is not benefiting at all from the decline of the Liberal Party. If they're going to suggest themselves as an alternative to the Liberals–a different or better type of change—they've kind of given away their distinctiveness.”
Coletto said surveys Abacus had taken since the now-suspended supply and confidence agreement was signed between the Liberals and NDP suggested that many respondents saw little difference between the two parties. He said continuing to pitch themselves as a genuine alternative was the NDP’s greatest challenge among those voters.
“Are we seeing evidence that it's working? I don't think quite yet, but we are in our tracking seeing that Jagmeet Singh's favourables are starting to improve,” he said. “That might be a signal that there is perhaps opportunity and even hope, I think, for New Democrats that they can find themselves in a position where they can gain some support and take advantage of the Liberal Party's weakness.”
As for the Conservatives, a replication of the party’s polling data at a federal election would translate to a large majority in the House of Commons. Though they do not need it, Bricker said it was unlikely the party’s fortunes would improve much further, owing to what he described as a high floor and low ceiling for the party.
“The likelihood that they're going to move much higher than they are would only be if the Liberal and NDP vote, particularly the Liberal vote, just stays home, so then maybe their numbers would go up,” he said.
At the same time, with progressive voters generally constituting a larger cohort than conservative voters, the Liberals have a low floor and high ceiling split with the NDP, Bricker said.
“The progressive vote tends to outweigh the conservative vote by at least 10 points. So it tends to be say 55-45,” he said. “But the progressive vote is split between the Liberals and the NDP, so the Conservatives are pretty much at their high watermark at the moment.”
Consistent polling figures show Liberals face situation where the 'public just stops listening'
In the aftermath of the U.S. election last month, the prime minister and his ministers have sought to contrast Trudeau’s previous experience dealing with Trump’s first four years in office with the Conservatives.
www.hilltimes.com
Takeaways:
- Public has seen enough and wants change, and are tuning out Liberal policy promises
- Liberals have lost public trust over their handling of immigration/economy/etc, so voters seem to have little trust in them to handle Trump (as I expected)
- Liberals and NDP governed together, so voters see them as one unit, so little boost for the NDP for now
AlvinofDiaspar
Moderator
Northern Light
Superstar
I don't think that's the case at all.
I do think, however, that people want effectual government. Government that says what it means, means what it says, and then acts accordingly with results to show for it.
But that doesn't mean people want taxes to double then drop by 75%, or that they want 10 year prison terms for littering then a free pass for almost everything short of murder.
It means they want a government to articulate clearly what the needs of the country and its peoples are (and this should generally resonate as true to a broad swath of the population), then they want them to do something about those
problems with a result that people can 'see' and 'feel'.
What people are increasingly impatient with is social disconnects (politicians talking about things most people don't care about or see as top tier issues); or who go on about all people's economic worries would be fine
if they just cut the Disney Channel or one Starbucks a week.
They are also impatient with perpetual 'plans' to combat congestion, shootings, poverty/homelessness, work-life balance etc etc. ......while most of these to most people appear to be getting at least modestly worse, no matter which party is 'in'.
That, in turn drives people to look for alternatives..........some of whom are extreme, and that's not ok...........just so we're clear..........but it is the result of of the above........not of people's innate desire for extremists.
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Admiral Beez
Superstar
Of the two (three?) choices I'd say the Liberals are best suited for taking on Trump. Poilievre would be a disastrous simp. If we must have the Cons I'd say bring back Harper.
DSC
Superstar
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From Economist. "Which economy did best in 2024?" US is at 20, Germany at 23
Northern Light
Superstar
The above is really a near perfect example of why straight-up GDP should never be used as a measure.
In any form, GDP, as with any statistic, is a limited snapshot.
But to get anything useful out of it at all, it really needs to be Real GDP (inflation adjusted), per capita.
In that context, the Canadian number would almost certainly be negative.
In respect of share price, I get the temptation to use a stock index as a bell weather for the economy, but that just isn't necessarily so. In order for it to be so, you need the equity widely held, so that any increase/decrease is reflected in the wealth of the broadest group of citizens; but you also, ideally, want the majority of those companies to be doing most of their business domestically. ( To be clear, I'm not arguing against global businesses here, what :I'm saying is that the welfare/profit of a global business may not reflect the economy in which the company's shares trade)
****
While no single statistic will ever capture everything about an economy, I'd be much more inclined to look at median household income, mean household income, average/median hourly wages, the labour force participation rate and the unemployment rate.
jje1000
Senior Member
Canada Post is being mandated back to work by minister MacKinnon (probably because it work look quite bad contrasting against the GST holiday lol).
Will be interesting to see if Jagmeet Singh has anything to say about this.
Will be interesting to see if Jagmeet Singh has anything to say about this.
Towered
Superstar
Too late to deliver urgent packages for Christmas, so a useless move now. Where was the government when it could have still had a timely effect?
Richard White
Senior Member
DSC
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The government cannot be expected to 'fix everything' and it is clearly better if employers and employees work out their contracts through collective bargaining. If the government should have done anything sooner it might have been to impose a 5-day 'advance warning' period before a strike or lock-out can start so that less mail would have been put into the system before it shut down and 'trapped' it.
lenaitch
Senior Member
It might have helped but there is a good percentage of the population would have deposited anyway. I read one story where a person opted to have travel documents sent by mail rather than choosing the pick-up option - the day before they walked. It had been in the news for weeks. I had to return something about a week before they walked and initially chose the CP option then thought 'whoops, this could turn out poorly and changed to the courier option.
So long as collective bargaining is legal, the government has to let the process run its course until is either becomes to disruptive to the economy or negotiations have stalled. It can't jump in at the first sight of smoke every time. If they don't want the potential for strikes, they could make the post office an essential service (which I think it was at one time).
picard102
Senior Member
Make the post office essential, and fund it so that they are not chasing profits over people.
afransen
Senior Member
Canada Post is not terribly essential for me. So I can see the government letting them continue to strike. Nothing like both railroads striking/locking out at the same time. Sh*t would have gotten real, real fast had that gone ahead. I don't think most Canadians are aware of how heavily we rely on rail and how little buffer is in the system.
kEiThZ
Superstar
Ironically mail is most essential in rural areas. Not really essential in cities.
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