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Planned Sprawl in the GTA

Any developer that talks about a land shortage in Canada is out to lunch.
Go take a drive through any new subdivision development they are building in Halton, Peel, York and Durham.
The majority of houses they are building are 2500-3,000 sq-ft single family homes.
Inefficient meandering street layouts continue to be built
They say we need to increase supply to house everyone, but is that how we solve a housing crisis?
If we open up more lands to build more of the same, do we all honestly think that will help?
 
Either you have to open up more land to development to fight artificial land scarcity which is a big driver in inflated land prices . Or you have to cut immigration which is political suicide.

Buffalo's real estate is cheaper because there is no artificial land scarcity which Places to Grow has created. You don't see ridiculous crap like $900/month bedroom room-for-rents [with no ensuites! you have to share the freakin bathroom with a stranger roomate! ] listed there like I see on kijiji.
The GTA is proposed to have 1 million new residents every 5 years. How much land would you sprawl to build that?
Im all for opening much more greenbelt land (while preserving greenspace around sensitive watersheds), in addition to greenlighting laneway homes in the 416 and dismissing NIMBYism. Not everyone can afford to shell out money for egregiously high condo fees.
 
One avenue on the immigration side is the foreign student question.

We have seen explosive growth in the number of foreign students in the GTA, to well over 50,000 in any given year.

If that number were cut back to a more historical norm..........say, 20,000..............that's 30,000 people and at least 15,000 units/rooms freed up.
You don't dishonour anyone's deal who we've already permitted to come to study, you simply cut back new entrants until you get to the lower number in ~4 years; that's one of the politically easier ways.

There is a cost in terms of replacing some of that revenue from the foreign students; a but a good deal of that is soaked up now by all the additional campus capacity we're building........which could also
be cut back with lower student totals in the near to medium term. If you assume each student represents 15k in net revenues for a college/uni; you have to find 450M in new revenue for the post-secondary sector.
Not nothing; but not that much in the context of a province with a 160B+ budget, ~0.25% of annual expenditures. Its also way cheaper than building the equivalent in housing supply; where else are you getting units at 15k per year, or 300k over 20 years in the GTA?
Foreign students often settle here and become highly contributing members of society. I think would be penny wise, pound foolish.

You'd have to constrain immigration to Canada as a whole. The problem is that Toronto is doing very well economically and is attractive for people to move to. I'd say the solution is eliminating single family dwelling zoning and allowing intensification of the yellowbelt with low to mid rise multi family buildings. Highrise construction is expensive and slow.

High land values in the GTA are a function of low interest rates and high economic value of living in the GTA. You can't raise interest rates solely to address the land prices in one part of the country or just to deal with house prices. We could try decimating the economic value of living in the GTA but that is cutting off your nose to spite your face. We could try to capture that economic value by using land value tax, but that would be very politically unpalatable, especially for people who live in large-lot SFHs. They will cry about being forced out of the house they've lived in for 50 years, etc.
 
The GTA is proposed to have 1 million new residents every 5 years. How much land would you sprawl to build that?
I'd say we should be expecting any greenfield communities to achieve at least 10k/sqkm. And at least half the immigration should be absorbed through intensification. So 10 sq km per year of greenfield development.
 
Foreign students often settle here and become highly contributing members of society. I think would be penny wise, pound foolish.

That is a misnomer/generalization.

Certainly there are many students who come here to study medicine or engineering etc who do go on to stay here and that can work out well for Toronto/Canada.

However, as someone who has good friends in several faculties, including IT at a major college, I can assure you that the percentage of students who come here and fail or barely pass is enormous.
Many don't have an acceptable level of English for their studies; and the fact that we marketed to these people and then took their money is nothing short of exploitative and neither in their best interest, nor ours.
I will also add that the large numbers of student sometimes result in lesser quality of education as make compromises in service of the degree/diploma factory model.

I would then add, that where we do attract the best and brightest to worthwhile programs, particularly from India; are we doing any favours to that developing nation?
Which country has greater need for new a neurosurgeon, programmer or structural engineer?

The cost of endless population growth is also a real one; an economy more driven by construction than by productivity and innovation isn't healthy in my judgement.

I'm also not opposed to foreign students; as noted, I suggested a level that was consistent with where we were at less than 10 years ago; and which would still make us among the leading countries for foreign students globally.

You'd have to constrain immigration to Canada as a whole. The problem is that Toronto is doing very well economically and is attractive for people to move to. I'd say the solution is eliminating single family dwelling zoning and allowing intensification of the yellowbelt with low to mid rise multi family buildings. Highrise construction is expensive and slow.

No one is arguing against intensification. The argument is that solutions are required on both the supply and demand sides, not just one.

High land values in the GTA are a function of low interest rates and high economic value of living in the GTA. You can't raise interest rates solely to address the land prices in one part of the country or just to deal with house prices. We could try decimating the economic value of living in the GTA but that is cutting off your nose to spite your face. We could try to capture that economic value by using land value tax, but that would be very politically unpalatable, especially for people who live in large-lot SFHs. They will cry about being forced out of the house they've lived in for 50 years, etc.

Housing prices are a function of many things, well beyond interest rates; however, its important to note that housing prices are rising in most of urban Canada well ahead of the rate of general or CPI inflation.

Toronto and Vancouver are simply seeing that at greater scale and the price rises started sooner in those two areas.

The entire country would benefit from a reasonable lift in interest rates. That doesn't mean a spike to 15%.
It means lifting off near-zero (BoC) and residential mortgages at ~3%............to something more sensible; a BoC rate of 2.5%, and residential mortgages at 4.75%.
 
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Which country has greater need for new a neurosurgeon, programmer or structural engineer?
Isn't is kind of paternalistic for us to decide for that new neurosugeon, etc. that they have to stay in India? Nevermind they can seek similar opportunities at schools in Australia, US, UK, Etc.
 
Let's not forget that international students in University medicine and engineering programs is not the whole story.
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the international component is much larger for medical residents

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With regards to industrial vacancy rates, which are being brought up in another thread to support a certain highway.
do these areas strike you as municipalities being serious about solving that problem?
Setbacks of 20m+ in pure industrial areas.
Do we think that this helps to solve that problem? Aren't all the players crying about land shortages?
Do these appear to be built by people worried about shortage of land?
Do we think that policies that force this type of development do not decrease the amount of leasable area for developers?
Is the public interest served well by assuming the lifetime cost of maintenance for these gargantuan rights of way?
Is this the best way to provide the maximum amount of space for businesses of various sizes and needs?



 
The street right of ways in these areas are often massive, like 45+m. Which means the setbacks look larger than they are as most of that space is actually within the road right of way, usually to allow for a future widening.

My experience with industrial zoning is it's usually a 2-3m landscape setback required between parking areas and street lines, but generally I agree that industrial minimum setbacks should be removed to increase densities.

If you look at Australian industrial areas they are much, much denser as they have lower parking requirements and basically no setback or landscape area requirements, which I think is a better way to go as it creates much higher densities. And more appropriate street right of way widths as well.


That's a typical Australian industrial street, a series of smaller industrial buildings with 0m setbacks and a small parking area out front. Notice the large amount of street parking as well, as parking requirements are so low that many vehicles have to park on street. This does occur in some older industrial areas in the GTA, but is generally rare. Most industrial streets are designed for curbside parking but on-site parking requirements are so high that it's effectively never needed.


That's the satellite view of the same street. Notice again the lack of setbacks and general asphalt area for each industrial unit.

Now compare to a typical Vaughan industrial area:


Lots of land wasted on setbacks, occupied by drive aisles servicing the rears of the buildings which are in itself paved over and largely underutilized. The industrial floor area on that street would probably occupy half the land in the Australian model and be more or less equally functional.
 
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The street right of ways in these areas are often massive, like 45+m. Which means the setbacks look larger than they are as most of that space is actually within the road right of way, usually to allow for a future widening.

My experience with industrial zoning is it's usually a 2-3m landscape setback required between parking areas and street lines, but generally I agree that industrial minimum setbacks should be removed to increase densities.

If you look at Australian industrial areas they are much, much denser as they have lower parking requirements and basically no setback or landscape area requirements, which I think is a better way to go as it creates much higher densities.


That's a typical australian industrial street, a series of smaller industrial buildings with 0m setbacks and a small parking area out front.

You see industrial areas in Canada like that too. That is usually smaller-scale industrial. You will find modern industrial areas in Australia that also look similar to those types of areas here.

 
You see industrial areas in Canada like that too. That is usually smaller-scale industrial. You will find modern industrial areas in Australia that also look similar to those types of areas here.

yes it's not that uniform, but again there is still significant on street parking and you will notice that the general densities are still far higher with less on-site parking and smaller right of ways and setbacks. Simple things like locating loading facilities in the front yards removes the need for wasteful driveways to access the rear of the property, while most industrial zones in the GTA prohibit loading docks in the front yard.
 
yes it's not that uniform, but again there is still significant on street parking and you will notice that the general densities are still far higher with less on-site parking and smaller right of ways and setbacks. Simple things like locating loading facilities in the front yards removes the need for wasteful driveways to access the rear of the property, while most industrial zones in the GTA prohibit loading docks in the front yard.
Busy distribution centres need lots of doors, truck parking, etc. It may seem like it is wasteful use of space but it is an important part of the function of the building. It is not like giant parking lots in front of a Walmart that only get used to full extent on Black Friday.
 
Planning staff for the City of Hamilton continue to oppose the no urban boundary expansion option:




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Regarding Bullet 2, "Creative Industries."

Ah yes, creative young professionals love living in suburban SFHs next to a corn field. Explains why Milton and Brooklin are the creative hubs they are, and not Leslieville or The Junction!

Absolute BS.
 
Busy distribution centres need lots of doors, truck parking, etc. It may seem like it is wasteful use of space but it is an important part of the function of the building. It is not like giant parking lots in front of a Walmart that only get used to full extent on Black Friday.
Most companies that are looking to lease space are not gigantic distribution centres. The vast majority of businesses are in sub 100k of space.
In these unit sizes, there is significant space being wasted on drive aisles, setbacks, etc. as pointed out.

Take a look at aerial views of commercial/industrial areas of Mississauga, Vaughan, and you will see this.

The supply chain for my business is vast, and I have visited A LOT of vendors in my career, in a lot of cities.

In the GTA, I would say that these aisles are generally just used for parking cars Of employees. I agree that the setup you describe is useful for some businesses, but for the majority is overkill

I have seen many businesses (including our own space) that have multiple docks, but have most blocked off and typically use only a few, so that the interior space can be maximized for their production process. Outdoor space is much less useful, especially in Canada. Most production based businesses will have one "in" area for materials and one "out" area for finished product.

All of this might sound trivial, but these are all things that add cost to the property, which is passed on via the leasing rates, which increases the cost of doing business, and prices.

Density shouldn't be limited to residential. I would argue that it is just as important for industrial spaces. Not only to limit their ecological footprint. For an owner, maximizing your usable space is important, as paying for non-productive space is increasing overhead for no reason. It would also work to increase the amount of available spaces, which should help to lower rents and encourage more businesses to open. Leasing costs of space are a huge hurdle right now to opening a business.
 
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Here is an industrial park near Rotterdam. Single lane in each direction, and separate bike path! Sorry Beez!


I think there is definitely room to make ROWs more compact and reduce setbacks.
 

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