The most basic commuter rail service between Peterborough and Toronto would cost $541 million, nearly a quarter of a billion dollars more than budgeted, states a long-awaited provincial report released to the public Monday.
Taken on face value, those numbers would represent a fatal blow to the project, Peterborough MP Dean Del Mastro said.
"This report is a huge blow," he said. "They have a cost assumption of half a billion dollars. There is only $300 million budgeted."
The provincial and federal governments committed as much as $150 million each in the Building Canada Fund agreement for the Peterborough commuter rail line in July 2008 -- contingent on the results of a study done by Metrolinx, a provincial agency that co-ordinates transportation in the greater Toronto and Hamilton area.
Del Mastro stated emphatically Monday that the train service could be built for $300 million and criticized the report's findings. He said he would continue to fight for the rail service and would combat the report's findings with his own third-party documentation.
The Metrolinx report investigates three different track routes and three levels of service including basic, enhanced and all-day service with price tags ranging from $541 million at the lowest to $1.5 billion at the highest for service beginning in 2016.
On top of that, the report suggests it would cost between $21 million and $25 million to maintain and operate basic service each year.
It projected passenger levels of about 1,900 per weekday for both directions, which would only justify basic service beginning in 2016, not all-day or weekend services, the report concluded.
Del Mastro took aim at the report's findings in many areas including its infrastructure, operating costs and passenger projections.
"One of the things that really shocked me were the findings for infrastructure upgrades," he said.
"The overall costing to build the infrastructure is grossly overestimated."
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The report estimates it would cost $329 million to upgrade the Havelock subdivision, which extends between Havelock and the Canadian Pacific Railway's Toronto Yard in Agincourt and is operated by the Kawartha Lakes Railway.
Del Mastro said he took the numbers used in the report to outside experts who estimate the Havelock subdivision upgrades could be completed for $155 million.
He slams the report for suggesting operating costs could hit $25 million per year and criticizes its authors for assuming people would be riding for free.
"It's not possible that this would cost $25 million a year to operate," Del Mastro said. "They exaggerate the cost and dramatically underestimate the revenue. Why are they assuming people are riding for free? That is not a fair evaluation of the service."
The report's passenger projections have been understated by at least half, Del Mastro said.
"You should expect closer to 3,000 people and I would argue more than that," Del Mastro said.
Peterborough MPP Jeff Leal called the report a "very reputable study" done by a team with extensive experience in the passenger rail and railway industries.
"It's come in at a bare-bones service at $500 million.... It's well beyond the $300-million figure at a time when both governments have fiscal challenges," he said. "We'll have to see what transpires down the road."
Leal pointed out that GO Transit is extending its rail line to Bowmanville from Oshawa and the province and federal government are working together on the extension of Hwy. 407 to Hwy. 35/115.
GO Transit bus service is already running between Peterborough and the GO Transit train station in Oshawa, Leal said.
"We're seeing ridership growth in that particular area," he said.
The province and federal government will need to discuss how to improve freight capacity on the rail line and who will pay for any further studies on the Peterborough-Toronto commuter rail service, Leal said.
More accurate price estimates and engineering assessments need to be done to try to reduce the projected cost to an amount that the province and federal government will be willing to pay, Mayor Paul Ayotte said.
"I think with all the infrastructure funding they've done I don't think there's a lot of appetite to add more money to it so we've got to try to get it down to a workable number," he said. "It's really important to the community that we get this line upgraded. If we don't get it upgraded we won't have a line.
"If we are concerned about the environment and getting cars off the road and that, this is one of the best ways. And it will not only help Peterborough, but Durham, and Kawartha Lakes and everybody along that corridor."
Metrolinx doesn't factor in the other economic activity, such as freight and business activity, when it's determining the feasibility or viability of the commuter rail line project, Coun. Len Vass said.
"From what I'm hearing out there in the rumour mill is that Metrolinx, to some extent, thinks the world ends at the end of the GTA," he said.
The federal government has been the driver of the Peterborough-Toronto rail link and it needs to step up to the plate, Coun. Bob Hall said.
"I hope Mr. Del Mastro shows some leadership and finds some money in the federal budget to make it cost effective," he said. "It's a service that will expand the city of Peterborough. I think it will bring jobs and opportunities.
"It's one of those investments that you're investing for the long term... I think it's a 100-year investment."
Overall, Del Mastro characterizes the report as "the worst-case scenario multiplied by the worst-case scenario."
"It has been handed to government as a report to base a decision on, that's the problem."
Del Mastro said he's going to make his third-party findings known to the public and the governments who will ultimately make the decision.
"It falls to elected leaders to make decisions, not the authors of reports. I will ensure that both federal and provincial decision makers have the best possible information to base this decision upon," Del Mastro said.
"I'll put all the information out there so the public can hold governments to account."
While the report could jeopardize Del Mastro's longtime promise to bring the service to fruition, the MP said he won't go down without a fight.
"I have been elected to advocate and fight on behalf of my constituents not simply to accept report findings that hurt our region's future," he said.
geagle@peterboroughexaminer.com
