News   Apr 23, 2024
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Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 (nCoV-2019)

I wonder what is prompting such a rise after days of decline in cases.

Why do I get the feeling that Toronto will feel the brunt of the emergency brake in the next couple weeks.
Maybe THIS explains it? See: https://www.thestar.com/news/world/...y-delta-variant-than-previously-believed.html

The highly transmissible delta variant is a more formidable foe than previously believed, largely due to its ability to infect and be spread by people who are fully vaccinated, according to data gathered by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

A confidential document prepared by the agency cites evidence from a recent outbreak in Massachusetts involving at least 145 people who were infected with the delta variant, which was first detected in India. In the Massachusetts outbreak, the viral loads of the 80 people who were vaccinated were essentially the same as the viral loads of the 65 people who were not vaccinated.

The CDC document also cites reports about so-called breakthrough cases in India. The viral loads of vaccinated people who nonetheless became infected with delta were higher than the viral loads of vaccinated people who were infected with other coronavirus strains, those reports found.


Some of the data in the document was described Tuesday by CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky when she announced new guidance regarding the use of face masks. In parts of the country where coronavirus transmission rates are “substantial” or “high,” everyone — regardless of vaccination status — should wear face coverings when they’re in indoor public spaces, the agency now says.

The confidential document was obtained by the Washington Post and posted on its website.
 
I wonder what is prompting such a rise after days of decline in cases.

Why do I get the feeling that Toronto will feel the brunt of the emergency brake in the next couple weeks.

Before you panic...........worth noting that number of people in ICU has continued to decline, now to 117. (down 4 from yesterday)
 
If weren't for idiots out west, Canada wouldn't have to worry about a possible fourth wave.
Even without this coming idiocy our case and hospitalization numbers are worse now than they were in July 2020. Are we sure this vaccine strategy is even working? We‘ll know if the massive increase of Oct 2020 repeats itself.

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In a recent evidence brief, Public Health Ontario has stated: "The herd immunity threshold for Delta is higher than for Alpha. Essentially, everyone who is eligible for COVID-19 vaccination and can be vaccinated should receive 2 doses." This is due to the fact that kids younger than 12 are not eligible, and you need about 90% coverage.
 
Feels more and more like September and back-to-school is going to be a pivotal month, with legitimate risk of an outcome that could once again move Ontario backwards on the reopening path.
It has to be hell for the vaccinated out-of-province and international students coming into Canada right now as the risk is accelerating for campus shutdowns and a switch to remote learning again that will mean lots of cash spent on rent and travel that is not needed. It's a very difficult decision to go or wait right now.
 
So we won’t go full Alberta.
 
If we have a fourth wave that impacts mostly the young, immunocompromised and unvaccinated do we expect Ford to close down the province again? I suggest not, because any closure would not have an objective…. beyond survival of course, but I mean we’ll soon have 80% vaccination rates, so the people have nothing to work towards. At some point we’re just joining To have to live with this.
 
If we have a fourth wave that impacts mostly the young, immunocompromised and unvaccinated do we expect Ford to close down the province again? I suggest not, because any closure would not have an objective…. beyond survival of course, but I mean we’ll soon have 80% vaccination rates, so the people have nothing to work towards. At some point we’re just joining To have to live with this.
It will all depend on the health care system, as before. If we can avoid the increase in hospitalizations they are having in some U.S. states, I suppose we won't close down again.
 

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