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Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 (nCoV-2019)

From the modelling presentation: (taken from: https://www.tvo.org/article/heres-ontarios-latest-third-wave-covid-19-modelling)

1618606519891.png

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Note the limited impact these measures are expected to yield on ICU utilization:

1618606709320.png


A big problem here is that the modelling has been wrong, twice.

And wrong, by a wide margin.

It has the effect of destroying credibility which is so crucial in these types of situations.
 
AlvinofDiaspar said:
Generally "voluntary" on paper, but I have doubts about that (not to mention a good amount of supermarket staff are no longer covered by unions).
Is the issue really people not being able to spread out their time to shop - or is it that they are unwilling to do so?

AoD
Click to expand...

Those who are still working are limited in their shopping times; which is one portion of the issue. If you work days, you shop after work or on weekends.

I have the luxury of WFH and can go to the store pretty much when I please, but others don't have that choice.

Providing people (customers) the option to spread out does assist in reducing crowding, its not a panacea by any means.

But the grocers are not set up to do shopping appointments, which limits any ability to 'force' spreading out.

The grocers have vastly ramped up delivery, but capacity for further expansion of that is finite in the near-term.

So you take what options you can.

Truthfully, I don't think midnight-6am service is all that critical.

Its just providing some people a before-work option, and extending service further into the evening that will make a material difference.
 
Northern Light said:
From the modelling presentation: (taken from: https://www.tvo.org/article/heres-ontarios-latest-third-wave-covid-19-modelling)


A big problem here is that the modelling has been wrong, twice.

And wrong, by a wide margin.

It has the effect of destroying credibility which is so crucial in these types of situations.
Click to expand...

On the contrary - the modelling is broadly correct - especially back in Feb right around the time when the province was reopened. This isn't a modelling problem, this is a policy problem.

AoD
 
Northern Light said:
Those who are still working are limited in their shopping times; which is one portion of the issue. If you work days, you shop after work or on weekends.

I have the luxury of WFH and can go to the store pretty much when I please, but others don't have that choice.

Providing people (customers) the option to spread out does assist in reducing crowding, its not a panacea by any means.

But the grocers are not set up to do shopping appointments, which limits any ability to 'force' spreading out.

The grocers have vastly ramped up delivery, but capacity for further expansion of that is finite in the near-term.

So you take what options you can.

Truthfully, I don't think midnight-6am service is all that critical.

Its just providing some people a before-work option, and extending service further into the evening that will make a material difference.
Click to expand...

You'd be better off mandating all workers not WFH an extra half day off for these tasks.

AoD
 
AlvinofDiaspar said:
You'd be better off mandating all workers not WFH an extra half day off for these tasks.

AoD
Click to expand...

A reasonable option, of course, workplaces would have to offer different 1/2 days to different people in order or different days for different work places in order to avoid concentrating a demand surge.
 
AlvinofDiaspar said:
I am not sure what the travel curbs are for - considering how much of a hotspot we are, and I don't think he gives an iota about us spreading it elsewhere.

AoD
Click to expand...
Maybe discouraging roadtripping, which would cause people to travel and potentially spread within Ontario. My cousin decided to road trip to BC a while ago with his girlfriend. I'm not sure where he is right now...
 
tiffer24 said:
Taking the kids to the park? Be aware of new police powers:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1383155057307357191

Ontario Sol-Gen Jones makes it clear: if police ask you walking down the street/stop you while you're driving about where you're going, where you live, etc... if you decline to give your info, they can ticket you, $750.
Click to expand...
"in your cars"
But not on public transit. If you have to use public transit you can be "carded" at will
 
AlvinofDiaspar said:
On the contrary - the modelling is broadly correct - especially back in Feb right around the time when the province was reopened. This isn't a modelling problem, this is a policy problem.

AoD
Click to expand...

We agree there's a policy problem.

On Modelling, you can't have the actuals come in well below your best case scenario, twice in a row, without having people believe your making stuff up.

Then, when you're finally right, too many instantly dismiss the modelling as Chicken-Little'ism.
 
Northern Light said:
A reasonable option, of course, workplaces would have to offer different 1/2 days to different people in order or different days for different work places in order to avoid concentrating a demand surge.
Click to expand...

Yep, mornings Mon-Thurs would be my thinking.

Northern Light said:
We agree there's a policy problem.

On Modelling, you can't have the actuals come in well below your best case scenario, twice in a row, without having people believe your making stuff up.

Then, when you're finally right, too many instantly dismiss the modelling as Chicken-Little'ism.
Click to expand...

Somehow I don't think it is a matter of perceived inaccuracy of modelling - but a general disbelief in the severity of COVID as a disease among about 1/3 of the population. You had some worst case scenarios pan out elsewhere and there are still those who insist it isn't a problem from beginning to the end.

AoD
 
Northern Light said:
Many supermarket staff are covered by union agreements, overnights are generally voluntary {unless you were hired for that purpose) and come with a shift premium.

I would gladly support that staff cannot be compelled to accept said shifts unless they were previously doing them; and that a shift premium be in effect.
Click to expand...
Most big grocery stores stock overnight. You don't want customers underfoot while stocking shelves.
 
afransen said:
Maybe discouraging roadtripping, which would cause people to travel and potentially spread within Ontario. My cousin decided to road trip to BC a while ago with his girlfriend. I'm not sure where he is right now...
Click to expand...

If that's what they are after, they would/should be restricting travel across regions - travel across provincial boundaries is, I would guess, a weaker driver than inter-regional travel. Let's face it, this is about perpetuating the belief that the government is taking action against inflow of cases (and the unsaid conclusion that this is what the problem is - export of case into Ontario - not community spread within Ontario).

AoD
 
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afransen said:
Most big grocery stores stock overnight. You don't want customers underfoot while stocking shelves.
Click to expand...

There were lots of 24-hour stores pre-pandemic; I have 2 within walking distance of my front door.

Lets not oversell this as a novel challenge.
 
Northern Light said:
A reasonable option, of course, workplaces would have to offer different 1/2 days to different people in order or different days for different work places in order to avoid concentrating a demand surge.
Click to expand...
The aim is surely to spread the load over as many hours as possible so we can physically-distance. I agree that opening between midnight and 6am may be overkill but I always thought grocery stores opened 24/7 as they had shelf-fillers there and adding one cashier was a low cost. (Though one then wonders why aisles are blocked by skips during 9-6 hours!)
 
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