Next Mayor of Toronto?

[Glen]

You could make the same argument about the KKK wanting to rent your basement.

 

[jje1000]

An extremely important point to make for any prospective candidates- the waste was never there.

Why Rob Ford Happened
By David Sax November 18, 2013

Ridiculous mayors are nothing new in North American politics. Washington, D.C.’s Marion Barry smoked crack and then won another term in office, while Montreal has seen two mayors led from power in handcuffs in the past four years, to say nothing of places such as Louisiana or Providence. Ford is a different creature. His political appeal rests on a platform of populist fiscal conservatism. The youngest son of a multimillionaire label-company founder, Ford has nevertheless managed to portray himself as the humble, working everyman who understands the needs of business. As a city councilman, Ford became known for personally attending the problems of his constituents, returning their phone calls and driving to their houses to make sure pot holes and fallen trees were taken care of.

In 2010 Ford won election mostly on his campaign promise to “Stop The Gravy Train” of coddled bureaucrats, decadent city councilors, and municipal unions—all of whom, in Ford’s eyes, were draining the city of its lifeblood. He was the last angry man, who respected the taxpayer’s hard-earned dollar above all else and tapped into a sense of frustration from those left behind by the city’s rapid growth. Housing was absurdly expensive for many, commutes were excruciatingly long, and home buyers despised the land transfer tax that Ford’s left-wing predecessor, David Miller, had instituted to reduce the city’s deficit. Ford promised to lower property taxes, slash city spending, clip the wings of unions, and bring a sense of fiscal discipline and private-sector professionalism to the city, all without cutting city services.

[...]

Ford’s brusque nature and substance abuse problems were well known before he ran for office, but he was straightforward and conservative, and thus electable, even to many in the business establishment. “People recognized that the city’s economic fundamentals were out of whack, and we needed to fix that,” says Janet Ecker, the president and chief executive of the Toronto Financial Services Alliance and a former conservative politician in the Ontario government. “It’s not like people didn’t realize he was a little rough around the edges. He was elected to be a bull in the china shop. People wanted city hall to be shaken up.” Rob Ford was Ted Cruz in a fat suit.

[...]

“It seems like the private garbage contractors are saving money, with no drop-off in quality of service,” says Edward Keenan, author of Some Great Idea,, a history of Toronto under the past three mayors, and probably Ford’s most pointed critic in the media. “I think his relationship with the labor unions and avoiding a big long strike is legitimately a win. That’s an example that carries weight with his supporters.”

But when Ford turned to the city budget in early 2011, with promises to root out the waste, his effectiveness waned. He commissioned a report from the consulting firm KPMG to identify efficiencies in the city’s spending, but the report found little sign of the massive waste Ford had declared war on. Toronto wasn’t mired in unsustainable debt (structural deficits are actually illegal), and the city’s credit rating had remained solid under Mayor Miller. The report’s proposed measures, such as closing or selling off libraries, theaters, and the zoo, or slashing the police force, were seen as drastic and unnecessary by the public, but Ford kept railing against the gravy, focusing on the lunch budgets of city councilors and the cost of watering the plants inside city hall. “I guess there’s been a lot of fuss over things like reducing councilors’ office expenses and the mayor’s office expenses,” says Enid Slack, director of the Institute on Municipal Finance & Governance at the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs, “but thousands of dollars on an $11 billion operating budget, though symbolic, [is] very small.”

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-11-18/why-rob-ford-happened#p2

Second, never underestimate Ford Nation. Any candidate needs to 1.) Get their segment of the population to vote. A candidate like Chow may have an easier time doing this than Stintz. 2.) Co-opt Ford Nation, convincing them that they're a viable alternative. This is an alternative, and will candidates will need to overcome Ford's folksy charm and simple messaging.

The poor and poorly educated may be over-represented in Ford Nation, but they are rich in the one thing that counts. They are highly motivated to cast a ballot. Anybody who can still command a fanatically loyal fan base of slightly less than a third of the citizens of Toronto is a force to be reckoned with. I betcha the turnout of identified Rob Ford supporters will exceed 80%. If the next municipal contest stays true to form, with voter turnout south of 50%, then Ford can still weasel his way back.

The 2010 election that saw Ford elected had a 53.2% turnout.

Miller’s victories in 2003 and 2006 had voter turnout numbers in the mid 30′s

http://warrenkinsella.com/2013/11/toronto-needs-a-mayor-but-very-careful-folks/#comments

 

[christiesplits]

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-11-18/why-rob-ford-happened#p2

Second, never underestimate Ford Nation. Any candidate needs to 1.) Get their segment of the population to vote. A candidate like Chow may have an easier time doing this than Stintz. 2.) Co-opt Ford Nation, convincing them that they're a viable alternative. This is an alternative, and will candidates will need to overcome Ford's folksy charm and simple messaging.

Ford knows how to appeal to voters, simple as they are. Olivia's purported "One Toronto" will likely do little to explain her platform, how she'll manage the city's coffers, what she thinks about transit. Ask a Torontonian what Ford's election planks are: "Respect for taxpayers. Cut the gravy. Subways."

I think Olivia Chow is in danger of running a campaign similar to that of Barbara Hall back in 2003. For most of 2003 Barbara Hall was the odds on winner with a healthy 20%+ lead over the other no-name candidates like a conservative insider (Tory), High Park councillor (Miller), and two disgraced egos (Jakobek and Nunziata). I worked in the Miller campaign and saw first hand how Barbara Hall went from 45% polling in the summer down to 9% on Election Day. She was unable to brand herself. She was too wishy-washy on specifics and took no firm position on the big issues of the time - notably, new powers for the city and the island bridge. Even her election signs were confusing with six uniquely coloured signs meant to embrace the various shades and differences of the city. She got squeezed out by the issue-heavy, slogan-driven Tory and Miller campaigns.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

More polling suggests that Chow would win election (no surprise):

TORONTO - NDP MP Olivia Chow would be Toronto’s next mayor … if she put her name on the ballot, according to a new poll.

A Forum Research poll provided exclusively to the Toronto Sun found Chow would win any hypothetical match-up of the candidates — including incumbent Rob Ford — who are planning to or rumoured to be running in next October’s election.

But the poll also shows that Ford’s chances of beating Chow improve as the field becomes more crowded.

The poll conducted last Wednesday came after weeks of bad publicity for Ford as he continued to take flak for his ongoing crack cocaine scandal — and just days after council voted to strip the mayor of much of his power.

“There are a couple of takeaways here — in the first place, the more crowded the field, the more it works to the mayor’s advantage,†Forum president Lorne Bozinoff said in a statement. “Next, the more Ford Nation thinks about a Chow candidacy, the more firm is their opposition.

“Third, Rob Ford is closing the gap on all his competitors as the campaign draws closer, and he has a year of free time to work on closing the gap further.â€

The poll asked residents who they would vote for if an election were held now and provided a list of possible candidates.

TORONTO - NDP MP Olivia Chow would be Toronto’s next mayor … if she put her name on the ballot, according to a new poll.

A Forum Research poll provided exclusively to the Toronto Sun found Chow would win any hypothetical match-up of the candidates — including incumbent Rob Ford — who are planning to or rumoured to be running in next October’s election.

But the poll also shows that Ford’s chances of beating Chow improve as the field becomes more crowded.

The poll conducted last Wednesday came after weeks of bad publicity for Ford as he continued to take flak for his ongoing crack cocaine scandal — and just days after council voted to strip the mayor of much of his power.

“There are a couple of takeaways here — in the first place, the more crowded the field, the more it works to the mayor’s advantage,†Forum president Lorne Bozinoff said in a statement. “Next, the more Ford Nation thinks about a Chow candidacy, the more firm is their opposition.

“Third, Rob Ford is closing the gap on all his competitors as the campaign draws closer, and he has a year of free time to work on closing the gap further.â€

The poll asked residents who they would vote for if an election were held now and provided a list of possible candidates.

In a three-way race between Ford, Councillor Karen Stintz and former councillor David Soknacki — the only three confirmed 2014 candidates — Stintz would beat the mayor, capturing 40% of the vote, compared to the incumbent’s 35%. Soknacki would attract the support of 13% of residents and 12% of respondents indicated they didn’t know who to vote for.

In a three-way race between Chow, Stintz and Soknacki, the MP received the support of 46% of those polled while Stintz captured 18% and Soknacki 10%. Around 26% said they didn’t know who to support.

In a four-way race, which added Ford to the mix, Chow would win with 39% while Ford would place second place with 34%. Stintz would receive the support of 17% of voters, while Soknacki could count on only securing 5% of the votes cast. Another 5% were undecided.

If radio show host John Tory was in a race with Ford, Stintz and Soknacki, the mayor would come out on top with 33%. Tory would place second (27%), followed by Stintz (24%) and Soknacki (5%). Another 10% of respondents were undecided.

With Chow added to that slate, she would win with 34% support, followed by Ford (31%), Tory (22%), Stintz (7%) and Soknacki (4%). Another 3% indicated they were undecided.

In a six-person contest — including Councillor Denzil Minnan-Wong — Chow would still win with 34%, followed closely by Ford (31%). Tory would score 20%, Stintz 7%, Minnan-Wong 4%, Soknacki 3% and 2% were undecided.

Forum said the poll — a telephone survey of 1,049 Toronto residents — is accurate within 3%, 19 times out of 20.

Forum said the poll — a telephone survey of 1,049 Toronto residents — is accurate within 3%, 19 times out of 20.

Source: Toronto Sun

Note that this was a landline telephone survey. The demographics of the people who responded likely skew older and more conservative. Last time forum conducted a poll using this method, more than 50% of respondents were aged 55+

 

[christiesplits]

In a four-way race, which added Ford to the mix, Chow would win with 39% while Ford would place second place with 34%. Stintz would receive the support of 17% of voters, while Soknacki could count on only securing 5% of the votes cast. Another 5% were undecided.

If radio show host John Tory was in a race with Ford, Stintz and Soknacki, the mayor would come out on top with 33%. Tory would place second (27%), followed by Stintz (24%) and Soknacki (5%). Another 10% of respondents were undecided.

Those are some frightening scenarios.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Those are some frightening scenarios.

I believe that has more to do with the methodology than anything. As I said earlier, this was a telephone poll. This means that the respondents tend to be older and more conservative. Last time they did this, more than half of the respondents were aged 55+.

If you look at this poll from Ipsos, Ford gets 20% to 33% of the vote. And with this poll, weighing was used to balance the demographics so that it was an accurate representation of the adult population.

 

[jje1000]

I believe that has more to do with the methodology than anything. As I said earlier, this was a telephone poll. This means that the respondents tend to be older and more conservative. Last time they did this, more than half of the respondents were aged 55+.

If you look at this poll from Ipsos, Ford gets 20% to 33% of the vote. And with this poll, weighing was used to balance the demographics so that it was an accurate representation of the adult population.

Remember though that this same group tends to go out and vote for more than other demographics.

 

[jje1000]

Reposted from the main Ford thread, but these are the points that I completely agree with in dethroning Ford in 2014.

Here's what has to happen for an anti-Ford campaign to be successful:

Few candidates. The fewer the better. Somehow, as many as possible of the potential mayoral candidates need to be convinced to drop out or not run.

Celebrity, populist campaigning. This doesn't mean copy Ford's anti-tax message. Don't do that, because it will just come across as fake. It does mean 'become a rock star'. Must have a message that resonates with the public, not boring policy papers.

Must take Ford on directly. Must call him a liar, to his face, repeatedly. That's what he is, but if no one says it because they're too polite, Ford wins.

Must stop Ford from sucking up all the oxygen, and the only way to do that is to give the media a show that rivals his.

http://www.specialcircumstances.ca/why-rob-ford-will-win-in-2014

Be graceful. Be loud. Be unique and willing to throw punches. Get media on your side- convince them that 2014 will be the year they're dreaming of in revenue. Convince them that your election is a story worth telling.
2014 is the year of the populist- it's time to harness populism as a force for good.

 

[Midtown Urbanist]

Embrace populism and may the queen save us all!

 

[jje1000]

Fight fire with fire.

 

[SJD_Toronto]

Reposted from the main Ford thread, but these are the points that I completely agree with in dethroning Ford in 2014.



http://www.specialcircumstances.ca/why-rob-ford-will-win-in-2014

Be graceful. Be loud. Be unique and willing to throw punches. Get media on your side- convince them that 2014 will be the year they're dreaming of in revenue. Convince them that your election is a story worth telling.
2014 is the year of the populist- it's time to harness populism as a force for good.

I agree with those 4 points, but I think the key is fewer candidates. I personally don't want to see Olivia Chow run, but rather see a center-right candidate take Ford out. I'm backing Karen Stintz as I think she would make a good fiscal conservative mayor for Toronto (and I think she'll run a very strong campaign. She already has some A+ staff on her team), but I really want to know if John Tory will actually jump into the race.

 

[Midtown Urbanist]

Fight fire with fire.

Its needed, but it saddens me that we would have to Americanize our political scene like this.

Drastic times, drastic measures I suppose.

 

[jje1000]

I agree with those 4 points, but I think the key is fewer candidates. I personally don't want to see Olivia Chow run, but rather see a center-right candidate take Ford out. I'm backing Karen Stintz as I think she would make a good fiscal conservative mayor for Toronto (and I think she'll run a very strong campaign. She already has some A+ staff on her team), but I really want to know if John Tory will actually jump into the race.

I hope Tory doesn't. His flip-floppiness over Ford has lost him my support. Olivia Chow might, but I'd prefer to see her act at the Federal level.

Its needed, but it saddens me that we would have to Americanize our political scene like this.

Drastic times, drastic measures I suppose.

I think the main issue is Ford. Notice how charged the political scene has been with his arrival. Once you excise the cancer, everything should calm down as evidenced by council actually working together last week.

 

[SunriseChampion]

The thing is that fighting "fire" with "fire" in this case is fighting stupidity with stupidity. Anyone sinking to Neckless B(l)ob's level isn't getting my vote, regardless of how much better their ideas may be.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

I agree with those 4 points, but I think the key is fewer candidates. I personally don't want to see Olivia Chow run, but rather see a center-right candidate take Ford out. I'm backing Karen Stintz as I think she would make a good fiscal conservative mayor for Toronto (and I think she'll run a very strong campaign. She already has some A+ staff on her team), but I really want to know if John Tory will actually jump into the race.

I used to be a strong supporter of Stintz. But her flip flopping on transit and her Scarborough Subway fiasco turned me off.

However my biggest problem with Stintz is that she doesn't have much of a chance of beating out Ford. This is a problem because the more candidates that run, the better the chances are of Ford being reelected. I'd much rather have a viable candidates such as Chow or Tory run against Ford, rather than risk handing Ford a victory by throwing candidates who are unlikely to win (Stintz) into the race.

Stintz can run in another 4 to 8 years. But right now I'd prefer her to drop out and then join the Chow or Tory admin as TTC chair, or another role.