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Next Mayor of Toronto?

TheTigerMaster said:
I used to be a strong supporter of Stintz. But her flip flopping on transit and her Scarborough Subway fiasco turned me off.

However my biggest problem with Stintz is that she doesn't have much of a chance of beating out Ford. This is a problem because the more candidates that run, the better the chances are of Ford being reelected. I'd much rather have a viable candidates such as Chow or Tory run against Ford, rather than risk handing Ford a victory by throwing candidates who are unlikely to win (Stintz) into the race.
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Don't be surprised if Karen Stintz runs a very strong campaign that picks up steam. I don't see Ford as an underdog in the 2014 election like he was in the 2010 election. It's Karen Stintz who is the underdog this time around and that can be used to her advantage. She has proved to be a very effective progressive City Councillor with a solid fiscal record with lots of political wins that she can campaign on and even the Scarborough Subway is something (while a lot look at it as a flip flop) she can campaign on. She can take these "flip flops", address them, embrace them and make them work for her as something positive. She has a tenancy to get what she wants and now she wants the mayor's job. Can she loose the election? Sure, it's possible, but I really think she'll end up surprising voters on the campaign trail. The fact that she has already announced her run this early is to possibly scare of other possible center-right wing candidates like John Tory as she and her staff know with more candidates running, the more likely it is that Ford wins re-election. I think she and her team are working on an effective campaign message for voters and working on a variety of strategies to counter punch what Ford and other candidates will throw her way. And I like that she has some very impressive campaign staff so far like Don Guy as a top adviser and Dave Gene as her campaign manager working with her. With some top campaign staff working closely with her - some of which are known to run winning campaigns tells me she is on a good path to a possible victory win. It depends on who else runs.
 
Olivia Chow always had a formidable ground game during her Federal campaigns and I expect this to be the same if she runs for Mayor. She is by far the most seasoned politician/campaigner of any of the candidates including Slob and Thug. She will be very hard to beat. If Tory has any doubts about winning (and he should have) he likely won't run. I expect it to come down to Stintz and Chow vs Drug and I think Stintz will do the right thing and fold while there's still time for the anyone-but-Ford majority to coalesce around one opponent.
 
Johnny Au said:
Stintz should drop out of her stint to be mayor.
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If/when it becomes clear that she wont win, she'll probably drop out and run for her council seat again. And if she wins that, she could be TTC chair under the Chow administration and oversee the implementation of OneCity (or a new plan). I suspect they both share a similar transit vision.

This race will very likely come down to Tory vs. Ford. vs. Chow or Ford vs. Chow. The former would have vote splitting, benefiting Ford.
 
People can declare/campaign all they want - the true date is when they start accepting/spending money on a campaign (and I suppose register with a minimum campaign budget/donations if required). I don't know what the final deadline is, though.
 
nfitz said:
Friday September 12, 2014.

The election isn't until October 27, 2014.
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Oh, I was misinformed sometime along the way then. That is a while away.

So why do candidates begin campaigning much earlier than that? Isn't it a drain on their probably limited resources? Ford is a raucous rich boy exception I suppose, but Stintz and others don't strike me as particularly wealthy.
 
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kbdid said:
here ya go

https://www1.toronto.ca/wps/portal/...310VgnVCM10000068d60f89RCRD&vgnextfmt=default
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Copied and pasted from the above:

2014 Key Dates

This schedule presently shows legislative dates only and will be updated regularly.

Nomination Period

Nominations are accepted from Thursday, January 2, 2014 to Thursday, September 11, 2014, Monday to Friday, 8:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m., excluding statutory holidays.

Locations:
  • City Hall, 100 Queen Street West,1[SUP]st[/SUP] floor North
  • Election Services, 89 Northline Rd.
On Nomination Day (Friday, September 12), nominations may only be filed between the hours of 9:00 a.m. and 2:00 p.m. at City Hall, Council Chamber.


Campaign Period

The campaign period begins on January 2, 2014 or when a candidate files a nomination paper, whichever is later. The campaign period ends on December 31, 2014 unless the candidate withdraws the nomination, the Clerk rejects the nomination or the candidate continues the campaign to erase a deficit.
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Approval is not electability: Why Rob Ford is ‘dead mayor walking’

From John Wright, Senior vice–president of public affairs research for Ipsos Reid. Their polling puts Ford at 19 to 24% voter support.
Bill Clinton’s chief strategist James Carville said after his first presidential win that the campaign was based on a simple and overarching message: ‘It’s the Economy, Stupid.’ What he meant with the blunt talk was clear – whatever anyone thought of “slick Willie,” the voter wave that sent him to the White House was because he connected with their deep concern about getting the slumping economy back on track. In doing so, not only did Democrats vote for him on this message – but also enough Independents and Republicans – that he won handily.

Rob Ford did much the same thing running for mayor of Toronto in 2010, capturing 47 per cent of the votes. Despite some stories that involved public drinking – and a drug charge south of the border – that came up during the campaign, people kept with him, and the term “Ford Nation” was coined.

But that once-upon-a-time nation is a lot smaller today – about one in five voters (22 per cent) in Toronto continue to stick with him through thick and thin, down at least 25 points from those heady early days.

We know this from our latest polling, where people were given a choice of four ballot scenarios of declared and potential challengers. The Mayor only received between 19 per cent and 24 per cent voter support.

In effect, the latest poll has him as “dead mayor walking”. Can he come back and win? Based on these numbers – even with campaigning over the next year, his chances are slim to remote. He has about the same support as Michael Ignatieff did at the end of the last federal election and roughly the same as Brian Mulroney did when he stepped down as prime minister and Kim Campbell took over the Progressive Conservative Party.

So why do polls show his approval ratings as high as 40 per cent for his job as Mayor if he sits at only one in five willing to cast their ballots for him?
...
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Read at the National Post
 
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