Next Mayor of Toronto?

[MetroMan]

^ Duh... You're right. So obvious. hehe

 

[Peepers]

Probably increase (or decrease) from their last poll.

If that is the case why doesn't it show a big decrease for Ford since this is the first time a poll has shown a major decline in support for Ford? Instead they show +2 ?

 

[Glen]

Ipsos-Reid website shows these numbers in the polls:

Smitherman (31% +8)
Ford (30% +2)
Pantalone (11% +1)
Rossi (4% -3)

What are the + and - numbers?

They are the changes since the last poll.

That being said, the sample size of this poll was small. On top of that the comments by John Wright (of IPSOS) makes me question the neutrality of this one.

 

[King of Kensington]

Good point Glen. The Nanos poll had a sample of 1000.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

The Toronto Star comment board is going crazy!!!!

 

[Peepers]

They are the changes since the last poll.

That being said, the sample size of this poll was small. On top of that the comments by John Wright (of IPSOS) makes me question the neutrality of this one.

So that would mean that Ford gained 2 % points since the last poll? That doesn't make sense. Probably a typo by IPSOS. I also question the validity of these numbers considering the clear bias of John Wright who offered this advice to Smitherman on how to win:

"“Smitherman has some momentum . . . and in the last 10 days he needs to give people a clear reason to vote for him, not just against Rob Ford, although that may be enough to win,” Wright said."

http://www.thestar.com/news/toronto...ts-as-poll-sets-up-ford-smitherman-fight?bn=1

 

[MetroMan]

^ Thats common analysis by a pollster, not bias. They also gave advice to Rob Ford on how to maintain his insurmountable lead when a poll showed him 25 points ahead.

 

[GenerationW]

Glad we've been able to whittle it down to two horrible choices before election day.

That's about it. What a massive letdown!

Now that gutless weasel #2 has left the building, I may just take a deep breath and vote for Pantalone since he has shown enough integrity not to "drop out".......unless of course he turns into gutless weasel #3.

 

[archanfel]

That's about it. What a massive letdown!

Now that gutless weasel #2 has left the building, I may just take a deep breath and vote for Pantalone since he has shown enough integrity not to "drop out".......unless of course he turns into gutless weasel #3.

Not sure why you are so against people dropping out. It does limit our choices though, which is a shame.

The interesting thing aside from the poll is that the comments on globe and mail have turned decisively mixed. People are still not saying much good about Smitherman (although there are more defenders now like "It was not $10 billion"). However, the anti-Ford camp is coming alive and they are generally Smitherman supporters now (Comments like Thank God Ford is going to lose). That would indicate the Anybody-But-Ford strategy is working well for Smitherman. It looks like my original prediction still hold. This election is still about anger and fear. Another interesting thing is people start to miss Miller again, which does not bode well for Ford since it shows the anger is diminishing.

Before you vote for Pantalone, here is an article from Macleans:

That reputation for customer service has delivered Ford some unlikely allies. Last spring, Peter Genest, owner of Hits and Misses, a punk record shop on the western edge of downtown Toronto, wanted to ask his councillor—Pantalone, as it happens—about a $555 licence he’d been required to buy to deal in second-hand goods.

Genest says Pantalone’s office sat on his query for over a month. When the Toronto Star published a story on Genest’s gripe, the reporter quoted Ford condemning the fee: “If they want to put people out of work it’s a good way of doing it.†Ford followed up with an email and a call to Genest offering further help. Not long ago, Genest took him up on that offer, and says Ford’s office got back to him the next day with a useful contact. “I don’t agree with everything he says,†Genest admits. “But I’ve only lived back in Toronto for 3½ years and his office has helped me out twice.â€

http://www2.macleans.ca/2010/10/12/the-political-genius-of-rob-ford/2/

 

[adma]

I'm reading that one of the Rossi-supporting councillors--John Parker--is now supporting Ford. Dunno if that'll help Ford, or hurt Parker (who's in a stiff race for reelection in Leaside)

 

[Fac1]

So that would mean that Ford gained 2 % points since the last poll? That doesn't make sense. Probably a typo by IPSOS.

It's not a typo, it's the result of Thomson's 8%. Rossi's diminishing numbers, and likely a general shift towards a narrowing of the field to two candidates, leeching support from those two plus the 3rd-party candidates as well.

I also question the validity of these numbers considering the clear bias of John Wright who offered this advice to Smitherman on how to win:

"“Smitherman has some momentum . . . and in the last 10 days he needs to give people a clear reason to vote for him, not just against Rob Ford, although that may be enough to win,” Wright said."

That's quite a reach.

 

[js97]

That's about it. What a massive letdown!

Now that gutless weasel #2 has left the building, I may just take a deep breath and vote for Pantalone since he has shown enough integrity not to "drop out".......unless of course he turns into gutless weasel #3.

I'm not sure why you would call him a gutless weasel.

I think it takes a lot of integrity and consideration for a candidate to drop it, especially when he is more than financially capable to go all the way, but realised it was a futile attempt. If anyone should drop out now, it should be pantalone. It seems like his supporters are by far the most anti-ford crowd, yet it might be their candidates napoleon complex that keeps him in the race, and gives Rob Ford his Mayoralty

 

[TwoDogs_39]

The Toronto Star comment board is going crazy!!!!

Haha, ya, it is. Ford's posse of dedicated e-supporters are out in full force. It screams of desperation. They know they've lost moment and their candidate is about to see a huge upset. They're throwing anything they've got at Smitherman. The comments are becoming increasingly absurd.

 

[MetroMan]

Pantalone is going nowhere I'm afraid. He needs to triple his support to even become a contender but that doesn't phase him with 11 days to go. His supporters need to pull a Mihevic and back Smitherman. If Joe pulled out, Mayor George would be assured. As it stands now, it all depends who's voters are more passionate and actually go to the polls.

 

[GraphicMatt]

My favourite are the Rob Ford supporters who ultimately just declare Toronto dumb as hell because they, of course, live in Aurora or whatever. You could seriously get a pretty good buzz in the mornings playing a drinking game that involved spotting the Ford supporting letters to the editor from people without a Toronto address.