If the suburbs outside the Greenbelt area are served by O-Train, where will the ridership for a commuter rail system come from?
Let;s start where rail already is, like Arnprior, Smith Falls, and Casselman.
Then we look at places where old rail lines ran to, such as Carlton Place, Kemptville, and Rockland and beyond.
Think of it this way, GO trains go to Barrie, Kitchener, and Hamilton, all of which are not considered suburbs of Toronto.
Spending a billion dollars for 30k riders per day is also questionable. Mostly though you have to ask what a billion dollars would do for Ottawa. This is a city with terrible feeder bus service that still runs most routes 15 mins at peak and 20+ mins off peak. A billion dollars would literally double the bus fleet. I would argue that would generate a lot more ridership than this proposal.
Also, who has any idea what travel patterns will be in 30-40 years as the feds move to more remote working and move out of the downtown core? The entirety of Ottawa's rapid transit network design is based on peak ridership, largely based on serving lots of public servants heading to the core. Now the largest employer in town says their employees don't have to come to the office everyday and it's moving many of their workplaces out of the core.
Anybody who says they know what peak loads will be in 30-40 years in specific corridors, is full of it. 30 years ago, people barely had dial up internet. Now people can work from home in their PJs. I can't even imagine what working is going to be like in another 30 years. But this at least means that transit can finally be designed to provide city wide mobility, as opposed to a hyper focus on downtown bound commuters.
How many riders per day does the West Coast Express serve?
I don't know why you're taking this conversation seriously and literally, all that is being argued is that repurposing Union Station sometime in the future as the region grows isn't an unreasonable idea, and could be looked into as a potential future project. If the population doesn't grow, then we don't build it. It's that simple.
That is the point of talking about this is a vision for the future. So many people are stuck in the present that a future idea is bad.
I mean if we're going to daydream about to how spend a billion dollars, I wish that was directed at something that actually makes a difference for most residents.
I have a dream. That some day, regardless of which city or neighbourhood people live in, they can get a bus in less than 15 mins.
I do not understand why in a city such as Ottawa, 15 minute service isn't a reality.