Metrolinx: Sheppard East LRT (In Design)

[nfitz]

I've heard this argument many times. How is it that everyone agrees that the sheppard subway was unjustified, but somehow there's enough ridership to extend it to Victoria Park?

There's as much ridership. The problem is, east of Victoria Park, and particularly Warden, the ridership drops much lower than the current 5,000 pphpd.

Remember, you still have to tunnel under the 404 with LRT. So there's no extra cost extending the subway at least to Consumers. The real cost how much more expensive the Consumers or Victoria Park stations become.

I'd certainly never suggest building the line as subway now. But phase 1 was originally supposed to go to Victoria Park. Stopping it just before the difficult-to-cross expressway is just a bad idea (same logic as extending the Danforth line north to Scarborough Centre instead of to Sheppard).

 

[mdrejhon]

And count your lucky stars that we have an extremely public transit friendly provincial government - all of it could have easily went down the tanks with a change in government.

AoD

This.

Also, the GO transit network will still become much more integrated than today.
These are already planned:
- ECLRT interchanges with Kitchener and Stoufville RER
- Hurontario interchanges with Lakeshore RER, Milton GO (Cooksville), and Brampton GO(future RER after CP corridor sharing/triple trackinf negotiations)
- Oriole station relocation to interchange with ECLRT
- Union revitalization completion 2017 with faster TTC path

In addition to long-term improvements mentioned elsewhere, like Kennedy and Dixie which are interchanges with TTC, as those gain more frequent all day GO service eventually. And the possible future ECLRT interchange with Richmond Hill (in due time).

 

[wopchop]

- Oriole station relocation to interchange with ECLRT

Never heard of any money to fix the interchange between Oriole station and Sheppard (which I assume is what you meant).

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

I've always said the subway should be extended east of the 404. Ridereship to Victoria Park is pretty solid. It's east of there it drops even lower.

You have made this point several times and I always agree. Time to educate k10ery

There's as much ridership. The problem is, east of Victoria Park, and particularly Warden, the ridership drops much lower than the current 5,000 pphpd.

Remember, you still have to tunnel under the 404 with LRT. So there's no extra cost extending the subway at least to Consumers. The real cost how much more expensive the Consumers or Victoria Park stations become.

I'd certainly never suggest building the line as subway now. But phase 1 was originally supposed to go to Victoria Park. Stopping it just before the difficult-to-cross expressway is just a bad idea (same logic as extending the Danforth line north to Scarborough Centre instead of to Sheppard).

You guys have no political sense at all!!! Why would you bring it to the border of Scarborough, to anger these people more. No half assing on this.

Exactly, it's solves nothing but angering the masses.

I've heard this argument many times. How is it that everyone agrees that the sheppard subway was unjustified, but somehow there's enough ridership to extend it to Victoria Park?

Exactly, it's solves nothing but angering the masses.

 

[Adjei]

This.

Also, the GO transit network will still become much more integrated than today.
These are already planned:
- ECLRT interchanges with Kitchener and Stoufville RER
- Hurontario interchanges with Lakeshore RER, Milton GO (Cooksville), and Brampton GO(future RER after CP corridor sharing/triple trackinf negotiations)
- Oriole station relocation to interchange with ECLRT
- Union revitalization completion 2017 with faster TTC path

In addition to long-term improvements mentioned elsewhere, like Kennedy and Dixie which are interchanges with TTC, as those gain more frequent all day GO service eventually. And the possible future ECLRT interchange with Richmond Hill (in due time).

Also ECLRT interchange with Barrie RER at Caledonia

 

[rbt]

I don't follow you, I'm sorry. BRT might well make more sense. But until 18 months ago we had a reasonable plan in the SELRT. Then SRT got cancelled, SELRT got orphaned, and we're only now dealing with the fallout from that. Agreed?

SELRT got cancelled a long time ago. The RFP for the yards was issued in 2010 and the entire line could have had a construction start in early 2011. McGuinty was getting pushback internally on both Finch and Sheppard LRT before Ford got elected. His election was a very convenient excuse to put the stake into it (substantial and perpetual delays) with the hope by MPPs of funding subway expansion.

If there was any intention to build something smaller-scale but useful then it would have been studied and constructed by now. LRT is being kept alive because the politicians know they'll get kicked out if they cancel it without a larger replacement project, but the electorate will let them keep kicking the start date down (they're hoping for subway funding too). SELRT does not have a funding or manpower issue; it has a political roadblock.


Yonge has exactly the same problem. Both TTC and York Region were ready to go on a perfectly reasonable plan to accommodate ridership for the 20 or so years but someone thought they might be able to pull off a magic trick; the result is nothing. Believe it or not, Lastman was the one who funded the Yonge street BRT study. Perhaps in 12 years they'll get funding for the subway that replaces the BRT, pretty much right on-time; nearly 20 years after the original BRT opening date.


In both cases an expensive dream killed "good-enough for now".

I'm in favour of building subways, I'm not in favour of killing useful funded projects for temporary happy/wistful feelings.

 

[georgevicbell]

The most important thing now is that there needs to be a concerted effort by the public to encourage the city planning and metrolinx starting in about 2 years to update the EA and the ridership planning documents. They will be significantly out of date in 5 years when they start to look at restarting this...and it will likely end up getting re-delayed if the documents aren't updated prior to the start time, the easiest things will be for people to say - the ridership numbers are from 2000 or whatever and we clearly have more people who would ride it (whether there is or not)...and therefore subway, subway, subway...

I'm also interested if the 600 million from Harper will be cancelled...it seems a likely thing that it will either be cancelled or grow at such a small rate that it will be a problem in 2020$...

 

[Adjei]

According to Mr. Del Duca, the delay on Sheppard was because of the difficulty of trying to do too many big projects at once. “The plan right now is to have the procurement begin for the Sheppard East LRT after we complete the Finch West LRT,” he said.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...admits-sheppard-east-on-hold/article24142765/

What sort of bullshit excuse is this?

 

[georgevicbell]

So, if there is one procurement department for LRT, it sounds like the order is something like: Eglinton, Ottawa, Waterloo, Finch, Mississauga, Sheppard


So, looks like maybe Mississauga beat us to it?

 

[rbt]

According to Mr. Del Duca, the delay on Sheppard was because of the difficulty of trying to do too many big projects at once. “The plan right now is to have the procurement begin for the Sheppard East LRT after we complete the Finch West LRT,” he said.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...admits-sheppard-east-on-hold/article24142765/

What sort of bullshit excuse is this?

Don't worry, they'll come up with a better excuse for the next delay when their pet-project still doesn't have funding; assuming anybody making decisions today is still in power.

 

[k10ery]

There's as much ridership. The problem is, east of Victoria Park, and particularly Warden, the ridership drops much lower than the current 5,000 pphpd.

Remember, you still have to tunnel under the 404 with LRT. So there's no extra cost extending the subway at least to Consumers. The real cost how much more expensive the Consumers or Victoria Park stations become.

I'd certainly never suggest building the line as subway now. But phase 1 was originally supposed to go to Victoria Park. Stopping it just before the difficult-to-cross expressway is just a bad idea (same logic as extending the Danforth line north to Scarborough Centre instead of to Sheppard).

Yup. Eight sentences, three distinct errors in logic. Thanks for not disappointing nfitz.

1. "There will be as much ridership to Vic Park as to Don Mills". But since the existing ridership never justified subway this is irrelevant.
2. "You still have to tunnel with LRT". But we're not building LRT, remember? So this is obviously irrelevant.
3. "It was a bad idea to build a stubway that ended at Don Mills". Now, some people would say this is the same dumb logic error as #1. But it is subtly different -- you are relying on sunk cost fallacy here. Well done for being wrong in 3 truly different ways!

 

[Adjei]

Watch this become an election issue in 2018.

 

[Electrify]

Makes you wonder once there are LRTs closer to Toronto operating, whether Toronto's attitude on the subject will change. Perhaps when people realize that it is not "just a streetcar" and understand what they could have had, they will be looking for blood.

Ideally, it will mean that a Ford will never get elected into office again, and the Toronto Sun will be officially discontinued.

 

[k10ery]

So, if there is one procurement department for LRT, it sounds like the order is something like: Eglinton, Ottawa, Waterloo, Finch, Mississauga, Sheppard


So, looks like maybe Mississauga beat us to it?

I'm pretty sure that they wanted to announce Hurontario before cancelling Sheppard East, to hold on to their (mostly legitimate) pro-transit reputation. And Mississauga and Waterloo eliminate the problem of cancellation fees on those 82 LRVs we don't need in Toronto. One less public relations headache!

So you're welcome, Mississauga: Toronto's transit screw-ups are to your advantage.

But those funds are still committed to Toronto transit, and can be repurposed for other projects. If they try to walk away from that commitment, Mayor Tory and others truly need to hold their feet to the fire.

 

[mdrejhon]

Actually, Ottawa's Confederation LRT is opening in 2018 (already delayed from 2017), two years before Eglinton Crosstown LRT. So is ION is opening in late 2017, according to current schedule. Also, don't count Hamilton out yet; they even got a mention while Sheppard did not (Despite a very mixed city council, we voted for a pro-LRT mayor). So Hamilton may still get greatly delayed funding, yet still ahead of Sheppard.

So the opening schedule may look like:

Waterloo ION (late 2017)
Ottawa Confederation (2018)
Eglinton Crosstown (~2020-2022)
Finch West LRT (2021)
Hurontario LRT (2022)
Hamilton LRT (guess: 2024-2027)
Sheppard LRT (guess: 2025-2029)