robmausser
Senior Member
Cancelling 200km of electrification for 20km of subway at the same cost.
|
|
|
Metrolinx: Other Items (catch all)
- Thread starter TheTigerMaster
- Start date
Cancelling 200km of electrification for 20km of subway at the same cost.
hw621
Senior Member
So what is the announcement?
Leo_Chan
Senior Member
FTFY
Tuscani01
Senior Member
Announcement is probably just Ford taking credit for the $1.9 billion from the feds, just like hes taking credit for the Federal business tax cuts today!
Allandale25
Senior Member
Haven't seen anything yet so I'm going to assume the person who told me was either mistaken or it wasn't going to happen today. Maybe another time. Apologies.
On a different note, does anyone know where in the Fall Economic Statement the NDP is getting this $1.4B cut from?
Last edited:
jje1000
Senior Member
Any guesses as to which projects are affected?
raptor
Senior Member
Based on Ford's spite, also known as 'the plan for the people (that voted PC)', Hamilton's LRT is on the chopping block since Hamilton voted NDP.
Hurontario LRT should be safe since Miss. voted PC.
Edit: Niagara GO expansion would likely be cancelled as well, since Niagara voted NDP as well.
These 2 projects would come close to $1.4B
crs1026
Senior Member
I couldn’t find anything in the released material that would provide enough data to substantiate the NDP claims. The PC projection in the statement was simply for FY 2018-2019. Delays in procurement probably have caused the PC 2018-2019 projections to fall below Wynne’s last budget, even without anything actually being formally cut. Shovels are not going in the ground as fast as the Wynne plans forecast eg the lack of a deal with CN pushes all the Kitchener spending out into future years.
The NDP is likely not crying wolf however - more likely they know it’s a claim that the PCs can’t deny, even though the published data doesn’t speak to anything. They may have a better ear to the wall, too. It’s a good bluff that puts the Minister on the spot.... and he is playing their game by clearly ducking the question,
The event to watch is the upcoming ML Board meeting. If the Capital Report disappears, or is massaged, we know there are new numbers somewhere. Even the verbal reports will be telling.
My personal prediction: after promising greater transparency, the PCs’ version of those ML reports will be even more obtuse. We may well miss the “good old days” when ML showed more cards.
- Paul
PS - a $1.4B reduction sounds ominous....and maybe it is....but it’s only the cost of cancelling one LRT line. The NDP’s list, if cut, would represent a much greater budgetary reduction. I’m on the don’t cut side, but the NDP cry of wolf is at worst a large poodle. NDP owe it to us to stay factual.
The NDP is likely not crying wolf however - more likely they know it’s a claim that the PCs can’t deny, even though the published data doesn’t speak to anything. They may have a better ear to the wall, too. It’s a good bluff that puts the Minister on the spot.... and he is playing their game by clearly ducking the question,
The event to watch is the upcoming ML Board meeting. If the Capital Report disappears, or is massaged, we know there are new numbers somewhere. Even the verbal reports will be telling.
My personal prediction: after promising greater transparency, the PCs’ version of those ML reports will be even more obtuse. We may well miss the “good old days” when ML showed more cards.
- Paul
PS - a $1.4B reduction sounds ominous....and maybe it is....but it’s only the cost of cancelling one LRT line. The NDP’s list, if cut, would represent a much greater budgetary reduction. I’m on the don’t cut side, but the NDP cry of wolf is at worst a large poodle. NDP owe it to us to stay factual.
steveintoronto
Superstar
Plus the Cons now mandating an appointee of the Transport Min on the Board, and all decisions approved by the Min and/or Cabinet.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-pc-fall-economic-outlook-cuts-tax-lcbo-1.4906718
raptor
Senior Member
RE: board meeting. I wouldn't be surprised if it's either cancelled, or if it's full of pure-vanilla, non-news, "we are so great" agenda items.
SaugeenJunction
Senior Member
Just wanted to post something related to transit funding from the Fall Economic Statement. $1.4 billion seems to be missing from the budget projections. Below are the numbers:
Additionally, here is the NDP release on the subject:
Ford’s $1.4 Billion in cuts to transit infrastructure put Hurontario LRT among other promised projects in peril
Also, some other docs for reference:
- 2018 Budget
- 2018 Fall Economic Statement
Additionally, here is the NDP release on the subject:
Ford’s $1.4 Billion in cuts to transit infrastructure put Hurontario LRT among other promised projects in peril
Also, some other docs for reference:
- 2018 Budget
- 2018 Fall Economic Statement
Last edited:
nfitz
Superstar
Presumably stuff they were planning on spending this year, is going to be delayed. This is often innocuous, and related to capacity to spend issues. If you go through TTC forecast versus actual spending, you'll see exactly the same thing, year after year, as projects are delayed.
The transit number is bigger ... but perhaps they expected Finch West cash to flow earlier than it did, for example.
Hang on - how can this be related to Hurontario? They weren't planning on spending that much in this fiscal year!
Either you've identified the wrong $1.4 billion, or the NDP don't understand what the balance sheet is showing.
crs1026
Senior Member
Those charts appear to contrast an approved plan with a projection of actuals - for a specific fiscal year (2018-2019).
It's so common (practically universal, particularly in the public sector) that capital provisions don't get spent within the intended fiscal year. New project teams often get off to a slow start. contracts don't get signed, materials are delayed in production, design paperwork doesn't get completed, permits don't get issued, railways don't sign on, etc etc.
Recall that the first thing the Ford regime did on arrival was put a hold on approvals for all capital spending. That alone could have constricted decisions to achieve that result.
Also, keep in mind that some of the projects that the NDP fears have been lost might have had little or no spending in the 2018-2019 year, because they are still at the EA/design/preRFP stage. The question has to be, what was on the books to happen in this fiscal year that hasn't?
The NDP won't get much traction from declaring this as fact. They are simply spreading worry - personally, I'd say the worry is justified, but the proof isn't in this set of charts.
- Paul
It's so common (practically universal, particularly in the public sector) that capital provisions don't get spent within the intended fiscal year. New project teams often get off to a slow start. contracts don't get signed, materials are delayed in production, design paperwork doesn't get completed, permits don't get issued, railways don't sign on, etc etc.
Recall that the first thing the Ford regime did on arrival was put a hold on approvals for all capital spending. That alone could have constricted decisions to achieve that result.
Also, keep in mind that some of the projects that the NDP fears have been lost might have had little or no spending in the 2018-2019 year, because they are still at the EA/design/preRFP stage. The question has to be, what was on the books to happen in this fiscal year that hasn't?
The NDP won't get much traction from declaring this as fact. They are simply spreading worry - personally, I'd say the worry is justified, but the proof isn't in this set of charts.
- Paul
Last edited:
crs1026
Senior Member
rbt
Senior Member
From the material they chose to quote, it doesn't look like anything new.
www.netnewsledger.com/2018/11/26/minister-of-transport-announces-transit-plans-for-ontario/