News   Mar 28, 2024
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Mayor John Tory's Toronto

Still holding out hope that Matlow runs, but I sense that he'll get railroaded by Tory, unless Matlow can get some significant figures backing him.

I would like at least one voice of reason to run in 2018, to at least fill the role David Soknacki did before he was forced to drop out. Matlow, as a centrist Liberal could do this well, but only if he is okay running and losing a campaign of conscience as a step towards provincial or federal politics. And given John Tory's Liberal support, especially from Blue Liberals, I don't know if Matlow could get enough support within his own party, apart from more progressive urban, independently-minded Liberals like Adam Vaughan.

I think that a progressive Liberal, with NDP backing (tough given the hate NDPers and Liberals have for each other), could take on Tory. But the NDP would have to back down on running another Joey Pants that would take 10% to 20% of the vote or agree to a consensus choice.
 
Adam Vaughan could reasonably fill that role. I don't know how he would be able to win the suburb vote though, and he won't be making a crack in North Toronto / North York where Tory's Blue Liberal conservativism has maximum appeal.
 
Adam Vaughan could reasonably fill that role. I don't know how he would be able to win the suburb vote though, and he won't be making a crack in North Toronto / North York where Tory's Blue Liberal conservativism has maximum appeal.

Why would he even want to jump back to municipal government for a position that for all intents and purposes that is worse than herding sheeps when his future at the Federal level hasn't been completely written yet? JT basically got dumped by the OPCs and wouldn't even stand a chance at the Feds (around Harper) - municipal is his only available option.

AoD
 
I think that a progressive Liberal, with NDP backing (tough given the hate NDPers and Liberals have for each other), could take on Tory. But the NDP would have to back down on running another Joey Pants that would take 10% to 20% of the vote or agree to a consensus choice.

Then again, there's the notion of somebody traditionally NDP-associated who could run with prog-Liberal backing, like...KWT. Who seems to be moving in the centrist direction of predecessors like Barbara Hall and Kyle Rae. (Hey, when you're representing big parts of Yorkville and Rosedale and trying to stickhandle a whole lot of yuppie-scumbag condo proposals, you've little choice. And her landslide reelection proves that whatever she's doing, it's working.)
 
Then again, there's the notion of somebody traditionally NDP-associated who could run with prog-Liberal backing, like...KWT. Who seems to be moving in the centrist direction of predecessors like Barbara Hall and Kyle Rae. (Hey, when you're representing big parts of Yorkville and Rosedale and trying to stickhandle a whole lot of yuppie-scumbag condo proposals, you've little choice. And her landslide reelection proves that whatever she's doing, it's working.)

Yes, that's why I think KWT is the best opposition to Tory in 2018. Her 'Expo' proposal notwithstanding, she's smart, savvy and as you mention, can bridge the usually distrustful NDP and Liberal camps.

Another option is Shelly Carroll. She's sort of the Liberal KWT, who is a card-carrying Grit but works well with the progressive (mostly NDP) members of council. Carroll also represents the Burbs which is usually the left's weakness - see Olivia Chow's near-single digit results in some suburban wards in 2014.
 
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Incumbents are very hard to dislodge from their current posts. Especially with first-past-the-post balloting.

Doug Ford will be a big factor working in favour of progressives next election, if he can fracture the conservative vote, and assuming there's only one strong progressive candidate.

Tory's move to the right might be his undoing if a progressive can paint him as being just like Ford.
 
Doug Ford will be a big factor working in favour of progressives next election, if he can fracture the conservative vote, and assuming there's only one strong progressive candidate.

Tory's move to the right might be his undoing if a progressive can paint him as being just like Ford.
The interesting thing is that if there was no Ford circus then there would probably still be a Ford in the mayoral seat. IMO, Tory can be seen as a kinder, gentler Ford and so don't count out Tory winning in the next election unless he brings back the circus promoted by the Fords. If the progressives can produce a circus and pin it on Tory, then and only then will they have a hope.
 
http://www.torontosun.com/2016/07/22/torys-popularity-takes-7-point-dip-poll

Tory's approval rating dipped to 67%, which is still very high. I think that Nenshi has similar support.

Some how I don't think they read the same article...
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67% into two years of John Tory's term and "the bloom is off the rose"? Around two years into Rob Ford's term, Rob was around 32%. If 67% means "the bloom is off", does 32% mean the bloom goes into the compost pile?
 
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Hey, that's media for you. That's equivalent of saying "most people aren't supporting X" when those in favour of X are 50%, not in favour are 1% and those undecided are 49%.
 

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