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High Speed Rail: London - Kitchener-Waterloo - Pearson Airport - Toronto

An additional councillor from SW Ontario using the "#whyhsr" hashtag.

2MJmBkW
 
Allandale25 said:
^ Maybe I'm missing something but why is there a discrepancy between the "revised scope of work" for 160 km of triple track and the "work carried out" indicating only 70 km were built? What happened to the difference? CN said no? VIA changed its mind?
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Basically - The project failed.

The A-G found that VIA was pretty poor at project management and at anticipating and managing risk. One can read this to suggest that the contractor (CN, although IIRC there was a sub contractor doing the actual work) didn't perform, and/or there were unforeseens, and/or VIA didn't know what to watch for and/or didn't have the means to take corrective action, but the report doesn't point fingers. Clearly, scope got reduced to stay within budget as the actual unit costs became evident.

The discrepancy between the cost projection for the left hand column and the middle column is huge. One has to think that the left hand column was a napkin calculation whereas the centre column reflected more detailed input, likely from CN. The plan might have been valid but the actual execution failed. One wonders how a projected cost of $1.6M/km could turn into an actual cost of $4.5M/km.... the projection was likely unrealistic, but the execution must have been deficient. Or the fixed envelope was mined by the contractor somehow.

One could argue that had the full 160 kms been built, VIA might be in a far better place today, and the freight interference might be less. From the commentary of that report, VIA certainly concluded after this experience that a mixed corridor just isn't viable. I suspect that CN's interests are divergent so some dealbreakers may have emerged as work progressed. VIA's lack of leverage over CN may be part of that, and that is unlikely to change. All the same, we've never seen a head to head analysis of the two routes. The amount of money that would change CN's tune might be less than the amount to be spent on the Havelock line, especially with 70 kms of existing triple track to start with.

- Paul
 
When I was saying that the Ottawa-Toronto route is time competitive, I was not necessarily saying that the time is improving, rather that it is competitive in relation to worsening hassles of short-haul flights and the 401 racetrack. At as fast 4 hour travel time, it can be faster than driving and you arrive relaxed.

VIA's HFR proposal for the Ottawa-Toronto route relies on segregating passenger trains from freight trains and redirecting non-local trains away from the CN mainline near Lake Ontario. By re-laying track on the former Perth to Peterborough CP line, there is an opportunity to run trains faster, which will make the route even more competitive. From what I understand, if the project ever gets funding, it is expected that there will be as many as 20 trains per day in each direction.
 
lrt's friend said:
When I was saying that the Ottawa-Toronto route is time competitive, I was not necessarily saying that the time is improving, rather that it is competitive in relation to worsening hassles of short-haul flights and the 401 racetrack. At as fast 4 hour travel time, it can be faster than driving and you arrive relaxed.
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It is rarely 4 hours and only if you live at Union station and are visiting Overbrook. ;)
 
TOareaFan said:
You do see how that is completely different than what I was talking about when I used the Ghettoizing term.......this is not adding a new station to an existing line. It is adding a completely different service that, in the post I was responding to, has the "benefit" of making the municipality >40 miles from union easier to get to for businesses, residents, students, than the municipality ~20 miles from Union.

Yes, adding stops at the end of a line does remove available seats from people closer in....that can be resolved/addressed by adding more cars to trains or more trains on the service.....but that is not what we are talking about here and I stand by my comment that if this HSR is built it will have severe detrimental impacts on Brampton (and places like Georgetown to a lesser extent). Any hopes of attracting businesses is gone and relative home values will suffer....which will both impact tax revenue available to the municipality which will impact services.

What surprises me, honestly, is how many people (posters here and media types and politicians) will greatly espouse the positive impact that this will have on places like Guelph and KW....will talk about the value of connectivity in attracting good jobs and sustainable development.....but will go to great lengths to deny not being connected to it will have a negative impact.......only one can be true.
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HSR won't "ghettoize" GO Transit in Brampton. That assumption is absurd. What HSR will do is remove KW and Guelph boarded passengers from trains travelling from Acton to Bramalea freeing space on those trains for more people. Those passengers would instead bypass the platforms at Acton, Georgetown, Brampton and Bramalea using the available space on the existing corridor while local trains would continue to serve those stations. You are assuming that somehow the corridor has no space for both HSR and Local trains which is categorically false.
 
it's much less stressful than the 401 and although not perfectly time competitive as driving, is a much more comfortable way of making the trip.

Also, rapid growth of urban and car free populations, especially in Toronto.
lrt's friend said:
What reasons do you believe for the sudden increase in ridership on the Ottawa-Toronto route?

Investing in other rail projects beyond the urban and suburban areas depend on this understanding.
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lrt's friend said:
What reasons do you believe for the sudden increase in ridership on the Ottawa-Toronto route?

Investing in other rail projects beyond the urban and suburban areas depend on this understanding.
Click to expand...
More people, more people making the trip between those cities. Price/time competitiveness with air travel. ....a lot of factors....but not sure how that changes anything in the post I made.
 
jordanmkasla2009 said:
HSR won't "ghettoize" GO Transit in Brampton. That assumption is absurd. What HSR will do is remove KW and Guelph boarded passengers from trains travelling from Acton to Bramalea freeing space on those trains for more people. Those passengers would instead bypass the platforms at Acton, Georgetown, Brampton and Bramalea using the available space on the existing corridor while local trains would continue to serve those stations. You are assuming that somehow the corridor has no space for both HSR and Local trains which is categorically false.
Click to expand...

First off, read my posts before you declare what I say (or, it seems, what I am thinking) to be categorically false.

  1. I did not say that HSR will ghetoize transit in Brampton. I said it will ghetoize Brampton. It will create a huge competive advantage for, both, companies and residents to choose to locate in Guelph over locating in Brampton. Jobs that are already difficult to attract to Brampton will now become impossible to do so....it will become an even more hollowed out warehouse town and people who want/need better connections to the innovation corridor will re-locate....and homes will lose value. Tax revenue will suffer and services slashed. It will be ghetoized. This is not a new concept and is the reason that for most of the last century towns regularly fought against highway bypasses........if your town/village/city is physically bypassed it will be bypassed by time/progress;
  2. The issue I have raised is not about freeing up seats on GO trains......it is about being connected to the corridor in the most efficient manner......Brampton (if this gets built) is being disconnected....it will be so easy for businesses in KW and Guelph to connect to Toronto and Pearson that Brampton will just become that blight town you pass through on the way there
  3. While corridor space is a real issue (as stated by people with a far greater understanding of how that works than I will ever have) it is not one I have raised in this discussion.

disagree with me all you want, but make sure you have read what I wrote first. ;)
 
jordanmkasla2009 said:
HSR won't "ghettoize" GO Transit in Brampton. That assumption is absurd. What HSR will do is remove KW and Guelph boarded passengers from trains travelling from Acton to Bramalea freeing space on those trains for more people. Those passengers would instead bypass the platforms at Acton, Georgetown, Brampton and Bramalea using the available space on the existing corridor while local trains would continue to serve those stations. You are assuming that somehow the corridor has no space for both HSR and Local trains which is categorically false.
Click to expand...

I think it's too soon to say there isn't a risk of track capacity constraints for the Kitchener Line and some non-HSR stations. Especially if one looks at the service levels other GO lines will get with GO RER. It's a legitimate concern for people who just want better GO service along the line. Keep in mind Collenette said before he was axed that the HSR ticket price would be 20% more than VIA's. Hopefully when the HSR EA starts when can get a better sense of its service levels and then compare to what was studied in the GO RER BCA, as well as do a comparison with the GO service levels for the other lines.
 
Would HSR trains use the same track as GO trains? It seems to me that if that were the case, there would some seriously scheduling constraints in order to allow HSR trains to run at full speed.
 
lrt's friend said:
Would HSR trains use the same track as GO trains? It seems to me that if that were the case, there would some seriously scheduling constraints in order to allow HSR trains to run at full speed.
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The theory is, as I understand it, that HSR only comes to life if the bypass comes along......that would allow the full use of the current corridor and expansion of it and some say that gives enough capacity for HSR and GO local and GO ReR and a (very limited) VIA.

There does not seem to be (forgive me if I have this wrong) consensus on whether the tracks going through downtown Brampton can be expanded beyond 3 (2 at present) and, if they can, how it is done.
 
^ I think that's a good assessment on what we know. And people using non-HSR stations at Georgetown, Mount Pleasant, Brampton can have legitimate concerns that they wouldn't get the same level of service as other GO-RER lines and watch HSR trains whiz by because of capacity constraints. We won't know for sure until more becomes public.
 
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