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GTHA Regional Transit Amalgamation Discussion: Superlinx/Subway Upload

nfitz said:
TTC reported that in 2010 that the entire budget for the 7-km long St. Clair line was about $100 million, of which $30 million were for the Toronto Hydro upgrades.

Meanwhile the 11-km long Finch West is about $1.2 billion in 2010 dollars.

How is that of similar scale and complexity.

They aren't even close to the same scale and complexity! A completely different magnitude!
Click to expand...

That is a fair point.

I wonder what portion of FWLRT’s capital costs are due to the LRV order and MSF. Just trying to figure out why such a large difference in cost between the two. You’d think both would have somewhat similar capital costs; they’re both based off of identical technologies after all.
 
TheTigerMaster said:
I wonder what portion of FWLRT’s capital costs are due to the LRV order and MSF. Just trying to figure out why such a large difference in cost between the two. You’d think both would have somewhat similar capital costs; they’re both based off of identical technologies after all.
Click to expand...
I think one of them may be building more new underground stations.
 
Insightful article from Steve Munro as always: https://stevemunro.ca/2019/02/12/queens-park-wants-torontos-subway-the-terms-of-reference/

Most notably, the the province seems to be hedging their bets, out of recognition that owning a subway system is far more complex than they previously anticipated

@nfitz, and perhaps others, previously suggested that the province would back down after seeing costs. Good call

At this point in Stage 1 of the process, the list of possible models is not fixed, but it includes at least the following three schemes:
  • The proposed “upload” model, in which the Province would assume ownership of, and responsibility for, subway infrastructure from the City, including the building and maintenance of new and existing subway lines, while the responsibility for day-to-day operations, including labour relations, remains with the City.
  • Other options that consider the potential transfer of asset ownership from the City to the Province (e.g., the Province assumes ownership of, and responsibility for, new transit expansion projects only, etc.).
  • Options that do not consider the transfer of assets, but include a realignment of responsibilities (e.g., the Province assumes responsibility for the delivery of new transit expansion projects, etc.). [p. 4]
 
TheTigerMaster said:
Insightful article from Steve Munro as always: https://stevemunro.ca/2019/02/12/queens-park-wants-torontos-subway-the-terms-of-reference/

Most notably, the the province seems to be hedging their bets, out of recognition that owning a subway system is far more complex than they previously anticipated

@nfitz, and perhaps others, previously suggested that the province would back down after seeing costs. Good call

At this point in Stage 1 of the process, the list of possible models is not fixed, but it includes at least the following three schemes:

  • The proposed “upload” model, in which the Province would assume ownership of, and responsibility for, subway infrastructure from the City, including the building and maintenance of new and existing subway lines, while the responsibility for day-to-day operations, including labour relations, remains with the City.
  • Other options that consider the potential transfer of asset ownership from the City to the Province (e.g., the Province assumes ownership of, and responsibility for, new transit expansion projects only, etc.).
  • Options that do not consider the transfer of assets, but include a realignment of responsibilities (e.g., the Province assumes responsibility for the delivery of new transit expansion projects, etc.). [p. 4]
Click to expand...

If QP proceeds with option 1, they’re immediately looking at adding at least another $2 Billion to their roughly $130 Billion annual budget (due to repair backlog), on top of whatever they have to pay for maintenance and expansion. That’s a significant addition for an austerity government. I really don’t see this working out
 
nfitz said:
TTC reported that in 2010 that the entire budget for the 7-km long St. Clair line was about $100 million, of which $30 million were for the Toronto Hydro upgrades.

Meanwhile the 11-km long Finch West is about $1.2 billion in 2010 dollars.

How is that of similar scale and complexity.

They aren't even close to the same scale and complexity! A completely different magnitude!
Click to expand...

With Finch West, they are right now doing the hydro, natural gas, sewers, watermain, etc. upgrades. With St. Clair, people were complaining about non-transit upgrades as being the transit upgrades, when they weren't. It would be like doing electrical upgrades to your kitchen, when you were only wanting to change the countertop.
 
TheTigerMaster said:
If QP proceeds with option 1, they’re immediately looking at adding at least another $2 Billion to their roughly $130 Billion annual budget (due to repair backlog), on top of whatever they have to pay for maintenance and expansion. That’s a significant addition for an austerity government. I really don’t see this working out
Click to expand...

Borrowing for capital purposes doesn't show up in the provincial budget. Payments on interest will show up and certainly have a cumulative effect in 20 years,, but not the year to year $2B in borrowing. The accounting rules were put in place to help prevent a capital sell-off (like Highway 407) from being used to balance the budget; it's also much closer to accounting practices used by Ontario municipalities and most businesses.

The deficit is strictly operations oriented; borrowing in Ontario is also much higher than just the deficit.
 
LIMITED CHANCES TO REDUCE GOVERNMENT SPENDING AND CUT DEFICIT: FAO

Not directly linked to the subway, but important context nevertheless. How does the government plan to reduce the deficit, while adding billions in spending due to their subway upload, without raising taxes? A billion of provincial dollars spent on the subway means that a billion needs to be cut elsewhere.
 
Gotta love this:
"No one will ever convince Doug Ford ... that there isn't waste in government," the premier said. "No matter if it's municipal government, federal or provincial, we're going line-by-line to find the efficiencies."
Click to expand...
LIMITED CHANCES TO REDUCE GOVERNMENT SPENDING AND CUT DEFICIT: FAO
Excellent. Start at home Doggie, no, not QP. You. Cut yourself. With malice if you wish. Others will be very glad to help you.
 
TheTigerMaster said:
That is a fair point.

I wonder what portion of FWLRT’s capital costs are due to the LRV order and MSF. Just trying to figure out why such a large difference in cost between the two. You’d think both would have somewhat similar capital costs; they’re both based off of identical technologies after all.
Click to expand...
So part would be the MSF, at least $150 million there. Then the LRV fleet, 30 LRVs you're talking at least $150 million. A big part is utilities. You want to move every utility out from under the lanes used for the LRT to the other lane, or to other streets. You also need to build up the electric grid to support the traction power system, buy land for substations, etc. There is the underground access to Humber College and at Finch West Station. Underground stations cost at least an order of magnitude more.
 
darwink said:
So part would be the MSF, at least $150 million there. Then the LRV fleet, 30 LRVs you're talking at least $150 million. A big part is utilities. You want to move every utility out from under the lanes used for the LRT to the other lane, or to other streets. You also need to build up the electric grid to support the traction power system, buy land for substations, etc. There is the underground access to Humber College and at Finch West Station. Underground stations cost at least an order of magnitude more.
Click to expand...

I don't think anyone's arguing about the cost. It's the time. Finch makes a great case study about how the Prov is not in fact better or faster at building transit. I also think it's fairly self-evident that FWLRT is fairly close in magnitude to 512. It's also a somewhat lower tier project in terms of promised rapid transit, at least relative to a subway line/extension, Crosstown, or something like RER involving a large number of multi-level stations and grade separations. It has two sub-grade stations, one of which is done already. MSF okay yeah. But compare that to the gargantuan Leslie Barns which took 2-3 years. And St Clair at 3-4 years. It just doesn't make sense that Finch takes so long. Promised in 2007 (I think), fully funded in 2009, was supposed to start in 2013, and won't be complete til 2023 at the earliest.
 
44 North said:
I don't think anyone's arguing about the cost. It's the time. Finch makes a great case study about how the Prov is not in fact better or faster at building transit. I also think it's fairly self-evident that FWLRT is fairly close in magnitude to 512. It's also a somewhat lower tier project in terms of promised rapid transit, at least relative to a subway line/extension, Crosstown, or something like RER involving a large number of multi-level stations and grade separations. It has two sub-grade stations, one of which is done already. MSF okay yeah. But compare that to the gargantuan Leslie Barns which took 2-3 years. And St Clair at 3-4 years. It just doesn't make sense that Finch takes so long. Promised in 2007 (I think), fully funded in 2009, was supposed to start in 2013, and won't be complete til 2023 at the earliest.
Click to expand...

The specifics, while interesting, don’t really matter. I think everyone can agree a five year delay to find a firm just to build a tram line is inexcusable, and a far cry from the responsible actor that Metrolinx portrays itself as
 
TheTigerMaster said:
The specifics, while interesting, don’t really matter. I think everyone can agree a five year delay to find a firm just to build a tram line is inexcusable, and a far cry from the responsible actor that Metrolinx portrays itself as
Click to expand...

They are a reputable company owned by government yet took them 5 years to find a firm!
 
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