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GO Transit: Service thread (including extensions)
- Thread starter drum118
- Start date
Northern Light
Superstar
Ontario Newsroom
news.ontario.ca
Emphasis added.
Glad to see the above, but would note, with amusement, that the previous Federal Transportation Minister publicly offered the Ford gov't a 50/50 partnership and 500M to upgrade Milton, which the Ford gov't ignored.
Allandale25
Senior Member
Northern Light
Superstar
Hold on!
6.2B; for a line with no tunnels, no elevated structure except for bridges over roads; arguably no new rolling stock required, and only a smidge of land acquisition at one or two pinch points.
You must be kidding me!
Seriously, I won't throw around an accusation of grift without evidence but I'll be damned if I can think of any other explanation. That estimate better include a tunnel to Square One!
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rbt
Senior Member
Do we have access to the Initial Business Case mentioned in this letter? I can't seem to find it.
We don't know the year those dollars are in. Perhaps it is a far future estimate, with a construction start after GO Expansion is largely complete?
Regarding land: I'd hope at that price it includes buying half the corridor from CP rather than a long-term lease.
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ARG1
Senior Member
My only guess is is that the $6.2B number is assuming the "full separation of passenger and freight" involves building the Missing Link or something to that scale, which I believe had roughly a ~6B price tag iirc.
nfitz
Superstar
The missing link is on the CN line, it's not related to CP operations.
ARG1
Senior Member
Part of the hope for the Missing Link (at least from the perspective of cities like Mississauga) is that the CPKC trains could be diverted to share the York Sub with CN, giving full access to the Milton Line and Midtown Line to Metrolinx.
Its worth noting though that as far as I know, this was a hope that was only expressed by local municipalities, and was never claimed as a major selling point by Metrolinx. This is why I added the "or something to that scale" detail since my point was the number used was likely based off some over the top design for a new rail ROW that is at least comparable to the scale of the Missing Link.
Allandale25
Senior Member
The letter doesn't specify if this is a new IBC. Presumably it is. There was a study done in 2016 for this line and the rest. The study isn't on the Metrolinx website but Steve Munro linked to in in a post and discussed it. I can try to find the post.
Update: see here
GO/RER Details Emerge in Business Case Analysis
Metrolinx has published a set of documents containing the “Initial Business Case” for the GO Transit Regional Express Rail (GO/RER) network. Updated Dec. 13, 2022: Due to a reorganizati…
stevemunro.ca
innsertnamehere
Superstar
construction inflation is a b****.
It's 50km of new double-track corridor, presumably electrification, a new flyover, probably a couple of grade-separations (remember those are like $150 million these days), expropriation in pinch points, bridge widenings and reconstructions, rolling stock, station renovations, etc.
Exciting nonetheless as that's 50,000 long distance transit trips daily. GO investments are some of the best the government can make in terms of cost-benefit, and the Milton Line will be extremely heavily used with RER service levels.
It's 50km of new double-track corridor, presumably electrification, a new flyover, probably a couple of grade-separations (remember those are like $150 million these days), expropriation in pinch points, bridge widenings and reconstructions, rolling stock, station renovations, etc.
Exciting nonetheless as that's 50,000 long distance transit trips daily. GO investments are some of the best the government can make in terms of cost-benefit, and the Milton Line will be extremely heavily used with RER service levels.
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Northern Light
Superstar
I'm not aware of previous iterations of this proposal affecting 50km of track.
Generally 2WAD was proposed to run to somewhere between Erindale to Lisgar.
I was privy to some of the previous estimates, and I can't wrap my head around 6B, construction inflation or not. Have to see what's in this estimate. The suggestion above by @rbt that it might involve corridor acquisition from CP (ownership as opposed to running rights) may be a partial explainer, TBD.
@ARG1 may also be on to something.
Whatever the case, 'simple' filling out of missing sections of third/fourth track doesn't add up to 6B for me.
innsertnamehere
Superstar
Judging from the press release the PCs are interested in running it to Milton.
It's definitely higher than I've heard in the past, but I also think it depends on the scope that CPKC is requiring. The way that Metrolinx is doing the Bowmanville extension is a 100% dedicated parallel corridor. I don't think earlier studies on Milton assumed that, but instead assumed additional tracks mixing with CPKC operations, and I also don't think it assumed electrification, etc.
I could see it hitting $6b if the province is looking to build a double-track dedicated parallel corridor from the Junction to Milton. That's a lot of bridge widenings, flyovers, station upgrades, track grading, retaining walls, probably a few grade separations, etc.
Northern Light
Superstar
Previous designs for upgrades in the Milton Corridor definitely did not include electrification.
Allandale25
Senior Member
^ I think they did for the "Scenario 4 (Full Build)" because it mentions "EMUBL4" and "EMUBL8". This is from the Appendix A-J referecned in the Steve Munro link above.
Northern Light
Superstar
Fair; I should rephrase; the plans I had seen advance to pre-funding, in the past, did not contemplate electrification.