One scenario is "one-seat" peak Toronto-Hamilton-Niagara trains.
And transfers between all-day offpeak Toronto-Hamilton trains and Hamilton-Niagara trains.
Ideal transfer point would be West Harbor GO station, but theoretically, Lakeshore West all-day trains could be extended to Confederation GO station. Recently,
extra tracks were added to the Desjardins canal, so
capacity between Aldershot and West Harbour is about to go up massively, and we have currently went above-and-beyond the 2011 Niagara ESR for half-hourly to West Harbour.
The ESR says the capacity is there. Half-hour to West Harbour can be activated by 2021 given sufficient money given to CN for running rights, without interfering with CN's schedule (except occasionally).
Given the newly-added multiple track-crossing opportunities before and after a freight train between West Harbour and Aldershot -- depending on where a late freight train, a GO train can now finally cross before it, or cross after it, thanks to the Desjardin Canal construction in Hamilton that I've been photographing over the last 2 years.
There are still some switchwork left to do, but most of the signals are now active all the way to West Harbour.
Construction funding of Confederation includes trackwork & bridgework between West Harbour and Confederation -- some of this begins later this year. Once West Harbour becomes a through station (by 2019) connecting to Confederation GO station and Lewis GO yard (2019-2021). Lewis Yard is already activated, as seen in satellite photographs on Google Maps -- with 4 active tracks (only 2 in use) and expansion room for 8 storage tracks. Minor funding is all that is needed to succeed a political promise of reliable allday service to Niagara Falls (at least as a peak-only single-seat ride, and an all-day transfer in Hamilton).
Once that's done, and the extra track between West Harbour and Lewis is built (already funded, planned), then there is little barrier to a politician demanding & funding 30-minute Lakeshore West through Grimsby -- Metrolinx can then theoretically activate LW 30-minute extension thru West Harbour in just mere months. (Incidentally, that'll redeem all the lavishness spent into West Harbour GO -- it's clearly designed to be expecting allday service)
This means either West Harbour GO or Confederation GO could be the transferpoint of the Niagara shuttle service. That politically is still up in the air.
Ideally, I prefer the Niagara GO rail shuttle transferpoint at West Harbour, but Confederation is capable of that too. If that happens, then the Hamilton LRT B-Line should have a 1-stop extension to Confederation, to "complete the transit network".
A realistic Already-nearly-fully-funded ~2025 all-day Niagara outcome is:
- Peak: One-seat ride for 4 peak trains a day (12-seat GO train), utilizing Welland guarantee
- Offpeak: Transfer in Hamilton for Toronto-Hamilton and Hamilton-Niagara offpeak allday trains.
- Allday Lakeshore West 30-min extension to West Harbour or Confederation
- Allday Hamilton-StCat back-and-fourth rail shuttle (2 hour intervals, 1 hour per direction) for midday and evenings -- ala NiagaraGO proposal. Might even be doable all the way to Niagara Falls (only 4 Welland crossings guaranteed per day, so reserve those for the single-seat 12-coach rides), but StCat should be easy enough.
- No Welland Tunnel needed!
Again, all of this is already mostly funded and under construction. Provisions for extra tracks all over the place are already being built, the massive 5-track Confederation bridge, the Desjardins canal, the recent completion of new track between Desjardins and West Harbour, and the studies to rebuild bridges (e.g. Birch Ave in Hamilton) on time for the Niagara services.
Again, funded. The alldayness is simply only an unannounced increment (e.g. CN running rights negotiations). Any politician can achieve this "relatively" easily by funding Metrolinx to pay CN out of the nose, and the problem is solved. But this is cheap relative to the expense already done -- the existing funding already going on with construction already going on as we speak on the Hamilton-Niagara corridor.
Does the business case justify?
Eventually, yes.
How quickly, is the question, though.
Till then, empty West Harbour is impatiently twiddling thumbs. There's a lot of expensive pre-built infrastructure waiting to go live. While I don't like uttering the four-letter F-word currently leading a blue-colored political party, I do respect the people who are voting and understand their desparations of difficult pick-poison political choices being made. But any party color can easily do Niagara all-day by 2025 -- when you follow the money:
Follow the money! Because it's essentially mostly funded and under construction. The Lewis Yard is lavishly overbuilt, West Harbour is lavishly overbuilt, the Confederation Bridge is lavishly overbuilt, the Desjardins bridge is unnecessary if you don't need allday thru Hamilton West Harbour. Increasingly, Niagara GO allday is the ultimate end result (at least for a 2-hour cadence to StCat) -- the freight excuse is not sufficient enough for the amount of overbuilding currently going on between Hamilton and Niagara.
The business case of "Cancel and let it go fallow versus finish off the remaining incrementals" now heavily leans towards at least eventual StCat all-day shuttling, so it's pretty much irreversible under any government color: It would be a total scandal to cancel because of what is already going on and being photographed, and what I see on Google Satellite View of Lewis Yard (with only two West Harbour trains parked in it), etc. And it's still expanding: It just recently got federal funding for additional Lewis Yard construction yet to come. Following the money, it's quite obvious.
I would not be surprised to see all-day Niagara shuttles well before 2030 even with orange, red, green or blue governments.