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Debate on the merits of the Scarborough Subway Extension

Rainforest said:
1) The evidence he was talking about is that the LRT supporters lost both the 2010 and the 2014 elections. Whether you agree with the LRT plan on not is another matter, but the LRT supporters losing the vote is a hard fact that can't be denied. Olivia Chow opposed the Scarborough subway, and went from 38% approval rating in the preliminary polls to 25% on the election day.

Before calling someone a troll, try to read what he actually wrote.

2) A statement that "voters were lied to" is a convenient cop-out for the side that lost the elections but refuses to admit the loss or adjust their position. Proponents of each plan had pretty good access to the media and could try to sway the voters their way. If the LRT side failed to win the elections, it means either the voters prefer the subway despite all its drawbacks (higher cost and fewer stations), or the losing side failed to communicate the advantages of their plan to the actual riders.
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Perhaps you should take your own advice?

Any facts or evidence that run contrary to what the poster in question would like to believe are dismissed as part of some left wing/media agenda, while everything else is the truth.

Casting both elections as LRT vs Subway campaigns is incredibly simplistic, especially for 2010. I'd say for most it was a Ford vs No Ford campaign.

Even if you wanted to frame them as decisions on what people actually wanted, then let's be honest about what was proposed. That was my entire point.

Ford did not propose a 6km one stop extension. He promised a free subway that was 'deserved' because downtown had one, paid for by efficiencies and the private sector, in contrast to 'streetcars' (LRTs) that would destroy the road.

Tory didn't propose a 6km one stop extension. He campaigned on a $3.56 billion 3 stop extension, again, deserved because downtown has one.

Even the current proposal's support is impacted to some degree by the fact that it's supposed to be built along with a 17 stop LRT, which is highly doubtful since they don't even have enough for the SSE.

All of this ignores the fact that the LRT was approved, accepted and fully funded years ago. Even in 2016, the LRT had more support:

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/20...nts-back-lrt-but-only-slightly-poll-says.html

Anyone would take a subway over an LRT - the problem is that there was little honesty about the cost and practical realities of building a subway extension.

If anything, these elections were about fantasy vs reality as far as transit goes. Fantasy won both times.
 
Everything goes up so yes I do believe the let price would have increased. But if both things increase at the same percentage than let is still the barging. Or is the argument that everything goes up so therefore buy the most expensive product in existence.

I'm a lrt supporter not because I hate Scarborough but because I want as much transit possible for the entire city. If anything the proponents of a subway extension which monopolizes the few transit dollars (I know some of us here believe transit funds grow on trees despite very little transit infrastructure being built in the last 20 years)should be questioned whether they infact care about the city and its transit woes as much as they suggest they do.
Rainforest said:
Do you actually believe that the LRT's costs wouldn't increase?

If the subway plan was tabled but the LRT option was upheld, by now the cost of LRT would have escalated quite a bit and the subway proponents would be complaining that "this LRT already costs more than the subway!" Which probably wouldn't be an accurate statement, either.

Substantial cost escalation seen on all transit projects these days leads to a situation when an evaluated but rejected option stays at its original cost estimate and looks more and more attractive as time passes, because the selected option sees its cost escalate as the design is moving forward.
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amnesiajune said:
If the LRT actually had more support and people saw it as an important issue, those people would've voted for a mayor who supported it.
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People have a had time envisioning new technology so they think of things they are familiar with which is why subways will win the popular opinion until lines like waterloo, Hamilton, hurontario, and Eglinton open . Just because some people have a hard time thinking out of the box doesn't make their opinions justified. Also for the pen millionth time we never had a vote specifically on which transit mode we support, we had a vote on who was going to become our mayor. Those are two totally different votes and if you don't understand that then you my friend are dense.
 
amnesiajune said:
If the LRT actually had more support and people saw it as an important issue, those people would've voted for a mayor who supported it.
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That's if you assume the election was strictly about transit - I think that's a very inaccurate assumption.
 
sixrings said:
People have a had time envisioning new technology so they think of things they are familiar with which is why subways will win the popular opinion until lines like waterloo, Hamilton, hurontario, and Eglinton open.
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syn said:
That's if you assume the election was strictly about transit - I think that's a very inaccurate assumption.
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TheTigerMaster said:
You assume people are voting only on transit issues, which was ridiculous. The 2014 election was more about keeping Ford out of office than anything else.
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Transit was a huge issue in the election (probably the most dominant issue). Olivia Chow was leading in the polls at the beginning of the election campaign, eight percentage points ahead of Rob Ford and fourteen points ahead of Tory. She was initially the candidate to keep Ford out of office, but people decided that they preferred Tory instead. People just didn't like her platform, especially on transit.

Anyways, let's sort out these talking points, because we have two very different statements in the thread. Is there some non-public transit reason (and what is that reason) for why Olivia Chow went from a 14-point lead over John Tory to a 16-point deficit, despite support for her proposals in the election's biggest debate? Or is the public actually supportive of John Tory's transit plan, thus explaining how he pulled off a 30-percentage point swing.
 
amnesiajune said:
Anyways, let's sort out these talking points, because we have two very different statements in the thread. Is there some non-public transit reason (and what is that reason) for why Olivia Chow went from a 14-point lead over John Tory to a 16-point deficit, despite support for her proposals in the election's biggest debate? Or is the public actually supportive of John Tory's transit plan, thus explaining how he pulled off a 30-percentage point swing.
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Well I think it's fair to say John Tory sold a bit of fantasy on his own. SmartTrack hasn't exactly been the silver bullet it was sold as. Though at first glance you would be forgiven if you thought it should please everyone.
 
amnesiajune said:
Transit was a huge issue in the election (probably the most dominant issue). Olivia Chow was leading in the polls at the beginning of the election campaign, eight percentage points ahead of Rob Ford and fourteen points ahead of Tory. She was initially the candidate to keep Ford out of office, but people decided that they preferred Tory instead. People just didn't like her platform, especially on transit.

Anyways, let's sort out these talking points, because we have two very different statements in the thread. Is there some non-public transit reason (and what is that reason) for why Olivia Chow went from a 14-point lead over John Tory to a 16-point deficit, despite support for her proposals in the election's biggest debate? Or is the public actually supportive of John Tory's transit plan, thus explaining how he pulled off a 30-percentage point swing.
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The dominant issue was whether or not we'd have Ford for another term. No one is denying transit was a major issue, but to suggest that the results hinged on the Scarborough LRT vs Subway debate is incredibly myopic.

Tory didn't even do well in Scarborough, which was pretty much swept by Ford.

Chow's transit platform hurt, but what hurt the most is her overall inability to connect with the voters on a lot of key issues. Targeting Ford was not a wise strategy either.

She ran a poor campaign.
 
Maybe someone can put up a poll asking people who voted for tory did they do so primarily for his transit platform, to keep ford out or other. I voted to keep ford out
 
All Scarborough politicians but one will run on the SSE. Transfers were a big part of the last 2 elections as far as Scarborough Is concerned. Surely there were more issues in the election.
syn said:
The dominant issue was whether or not we'd have Ford for another term. No one is denying transit was a major issue, but to suggest that the results hinged on the Scarborough LRT vs Subway debate is incredibly myopic.

Tory didn't even do well in Scarborough, which was pretty much swept by Ford.

Chow's transit platform hurt, but what hurt the most is her overall inability to connect with the voters on a lot of key issues. Targeting Ford was not a wise strategy either.

She ran a poor campaign.
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I agree with all you said above. As much as its a main topic I never suggested all votes in Scarborough reside on the SSE debate, but we are certainly heading to bring it further to forefront as if it wasn't already a major election issue for the last decade. We certainly do disagree on the medias over-reach here on this topic. To me they have become a loud and ongoing promotional add for the transfer LRT and talking over the majority of Scarborough residents who clearly voted for candidates calling for a different plan. Although nice to see you recently acknowledged political media bias? We've already gone down this road and best to just accept we disagree.

Currently more than 95% of Scarborough elected officials support the subway. Those types of numbers should be a clear indication about what to do with the old Scarborough transit plan. On this topic of transit Its suicide out here going against that type of democratic support and we are not going back to transfers before SCC or on Sheppard no matter what technology. So after 2 straight elections, we now clearly have a Political tantrum going on. On the topic of transit there are minimal votes to be gained in Scarborough running on the same transfer LRT platform no matter how much noise. And if Ford runs it will actually help the "Chow" (far "Left") type as he splits some vote from Tory who has decent middle ground support and would likely take more of the Ford vote. But I see the ridiculous transfer LRT vs. One stop subway (with the no funded Crosstown) debate having negative affect on both the "Chow" type and Tory.

With Tory no longer having a "fake" transit plan in his pocket which was needed to squeak by last election, and the polarized "Opposition" continuing to relentlessly strong arm, and promote poorly placed transfers into Scarborough , I think Ford might be the one to benefit on the topic of transit. Given the fine line in support between victory, transit could prove to be the tipping point again, as it was shown to be last election. First and foremost people thru-out the City want to move on from this toxic debate and that can only be accomplished easily with a modification of the current subway plan at this late stage. If the "Opposition" even tried to compromise with an improved plan here, I really think they would have had a decent opportunity to gain some votes given the state Tory has left the subway and his crumbling Smarttrack. But with no attempt at all, again. It's now become just noise making with the same talking points that have already been on the table numerous times here.
 
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syn said:
Perhaps you should take your own advice?

Any facts or evidence that run contrary to what the poster in question would like to believe are dismissed as part of some left wing/media agenda, while everything else is the truth.

Casting both elections as LRT vs Subway campaigns is incredibly simplistic, especially for 2010. I'd say for most it was a Ford vs No Ford campaign.

Even if you wanted to frame them as decisions on what people actually wanted, then let's be honest about what was proposed. That was my entire point.

Ford did not propose a 6km one stop extension. He promised a free subway that was 'deserved' because downtown had one, paid for by efficiencies and the private sector, in contrast to 'streetcars' (LRTs) that would destroy the road.

Tory didn't propose a 6km one stop extension. He campaigned on a $3.56 billion 3 stop extension, again, deserved because downtown has one.

Even the current proposal's support is impacted to some degree by the fact that it's supposed to be built along with a 17 stop LRT, which is highly doubtful since they don't even have enough for the SSE.

All of this ignores the fact that the LRT was approved, accepted and fully funded years ago. Even in 2016, the LRT had more support:

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/20...nts-back-lrt-but-only-slightly-poll-says.html

Anyone would take a subway over an LRT - the problem is that there was little honesty about the cost and practical realities of building a subway extension.

If anything, these elections were about fantasy vs reality as far as transit goes. Fantasy won both times.
Click to expand...

You contradict yourself, first complaining that the voters were lied to on transit issues; that suggests that transit was important enough to bother lying. And then in the next post you claim that the results of elections do not reflect the voter's preferences on transit, because the elections were decided by multiple issues.

Certainly, transit was not the only question on the table. And yet, it is evident that the voters are leaning towards the subway option, at least in this corridor. Chow started well ahead of Tory in the polls, she had all chances to be the leading "anything-but-Ford" candidate, and she didn't make any significant campaign mistakes other than turning against SSE. And yet, she slipped from 38% rating to 25%, while Tory advanced. There may be some additional factors that contributed to her poor performance, but I don't see any other major factor.

Now, it's true that the balance changed somewhat as the 3-stop subway plan changed to 1-stop plan. It would be pretty reasonable for the proponents of LRT to table candidates in the Scarborough ridings who will propose going back to the LRT plan. As well, it would be pretty reasonable for the proponents of SSE to table candidates who will push for the restored 3-stop plan. Let's wait and see who wins.
 
sixrings said:
Maybe someone can put up a poll asking people who voted for tory did they do so primarily for his transit platform, to keep ford out or other. I voted to keep ford out
Click to expand...

Btw, as a forum user you have the ability to create a poll.
 
Rainforest said:
You contradict yourself, first complaining that the voters were lied to on transit issues; that suggests that transit was important enough to bother lying. And then in the next post you claim that the results of elections do not reflect the voter's preferences on transit, because the elections were decided by multiple issues.

Certainly, transit was not the only question on the table. And yet, it is evident that the voters are leaning towards the subway option, at least in this corridor. Chow started well ahead of Tory in the polls, she had all chances to be the leading "anything-but-Ford" candidate, and she didn't make any significant campaign mistakes other than turning against SSE. And yet, she slipped from 38% rating to 25%, while Tory advanced. There may be some additional factors that contributed to her poor performance, but I don't see any other major factor.

Now, it's true that the balance changed somewhat as the 3-stop subway plan changed to 1-stop plan. It would be pretty reasonable for the proponents of LRT to table candidates in the Scarborough ridings who will propose going back to the LRT plan. As well, it would be pretty reasonable for the proponents of SSE to table candidates who will push for the restored 3-stop plan. Let's wait and see who wins.
Click to expand...

If anything, Olivia Chow's hardline stance in favour of keeping Transit City afloat when clearly constituents outside pf perhaps downtown wanted something better sunk her campaign. I refuse to believe keeping a Ford out was the only motivator. Tory promised "surface subways" completed before the end of his probable second term instead of on-street LRT with frequently occurring stops. That could have played significantly into why he was elected.

Chow = status quo
Ford = uncertainty
Tory = had the ear of the Province on board with his plan since implementing GO RER was already on their books/agenda.
 
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