Only 23% of all transit trips beginning in Scarborough are heading downtown. The solution is regional rail. If only the city was planning regional rail expansion...perhaps it could run more frequently. Something like Regional Rail, but faster...like a Regional Express Rail?
There are about 250,000 people living downtown, and almost 800,000 living in the Old City of Toronto (pre-amalgamation boundaries). What about the other 550,000? Are they all just walking and cycling too?
Furthermore, there are residents downtown who don't actually work downtown, who will take a combination of transit to arrive at their destination. The downtown portion of the subway are busy almost continuously now - it isn't strictly a rush hour phenomenon.
This all goes back to my original point - areas with a high density of both population and employment are best suited for subway infrastructure.
If the problem for people in Scarborough is getting downtown, then what needs to be addressed is the regional rail situation. Spending $5 billion on a subway extension that cripples local transit and does little to improve a trip downtown is a foolish idea.
Why would someone living on the Sheppard Line want to drive to Yorkdale? They could just wait a few stops and get to Yonge.
The Sheppard corridor doesn't have great population density - and it isn't much of an employment destination either.
East of Fairview is even worse.
Here is Victoria Park & Sheppard:
https://www.google.com/maps/place/Victoria+Park+Ave+&+Sheppard+Ave+E,+Toronto,+ON/@43.7751968,-79.3230738,3a,75y,349.31h,105.61t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1sIc5JDVGiEmhuNt7nYcstpg!2e0!6s//geo3.ggpht.com/cbk?panoid=Ic5JDVGiEmhuNt7nYcstpg&output=thumbnail&cb_client=search.TACTILE.gps&thumb=2&w=392&h=106&yaw=341.88342&pitch=0&thumbfov=100!7i13312!8i6656!4m5!3m4!1s0x89d4d245472c1403:0xc071f82bc4cacfc4!8m2!3d43.7752313!4d-79.32308
of those 23% of downtown trips, only about 5% are commuters heading to union station, where RER is supposed to benefit. things will get better if they throw in Gerrard, Liberty village, etc, but those aren't guaranteed. The subway connects to all of toronto, which is where 50% of all scarborough commuters are heading. That's a huge population to serve: 100,000 individuals, 200,000 transit trips. I wouldn't call that nothing.
I'd sell my soul to be able to live downtown, but sadly not everyone can afford live there; I can't even afford to live in Toronto. The other 550,000 live in Etobicoke (which is getting the FWLRT, EELRT (potentially grade separated), and has a bloor danforth subway line serving it), and north york (served by Line 1 Yonge, Spadina, Line 4, and future Line 3 Relief Line). What does Scarborough have? 2 stops on the BD line and an SRT that's falling apart. Despite my hatred for the "Scarborough deserves subways" argument, I'd call that neglect, it's nothing more than that. I think we all agree that 5 billion dollars is ridiculous for 7 km of subway track, but we have to remember the circumstances our economy is in and remember that the LRT option they are proposing solves none of the SRT shortfalls.
We're proposing an extension to Victoria Park because it's ripe for development, still has a significant amount of nearby density, and most importantly, has access to the Victoria park Bus, and can serve as an important transit hub for other bus routes.
Yorkdale was just a random example, but variety is important. I go to different malls in my city because they all have something different to offer. York University is a better example: it's simply much easier to drive there than take public transit. People need better options.
There is nothing wrong with LRT though, BRT is fine until you confront the fact that it still can't move as many people as an LRT can. Once you reach about 3,000 pp/h a BRT starts having diminishing returns, but a Subway doesn't become warranted until around 15,000 pp/h. Are you honsetly suggesting that every city in the world that has LRT's wasted their money? Are you suggesting a city like Los Angeles which has what can be considered one of the best, if not the best LRT's in North America is wrong? Is Ottawa wrong for converting its BRT into an LRT? BRT is nothing but a stop gap solution that wares out its welcome really fast, while LRT like every other rail based transportation system lasts generations.
You also talk about"removing lanes" as a bad thing while ommiting the fact that BRT does the exact same thing (have you seen Highway 7?) Merely painting lines on the road isn't BRT, mixed traffic express buses are not BRT.
Every form of transit has its place. Saying one is always better than the other is moronic. BRT should be in place on many streets in toronto like McCowan north of the STC, Runnemede, etc. LRT should be in places like Lawrence, Jane, Wilson/York Mills, etc. Saying any of these lines aren't ripe for either technology is illogical because our city is growing and we need to build to fix the problems of today with the future needs met.
So anti LRT now? LRT costs less then subways. Especially for people from areas that complain about fiscal responsibility. You also don't dig up the ground. And it encourages people to drive less and lower greenhouse gases.
Again LRT does not always cost less than subways; the ECLRT is costing far more per kilometer of grade separated line than the TYSSE. Why? Because there are more stations and the tunnels are much wider. Central Eglinton is not the place for LRT, they should have built a subway there with BRT or NS LRT at the terminal ends. Finch is the place for an LRT, Steeles is fit for LRT. Victoria park...but not streets like Eglinton, Sheppard, or Don Mills.
Do we know what the headways will be on the EC and EELRT? I ask because the entire line from Mount Dennis to UTSC will be 41 stops making it the longest line in Toronto, and this is before you factor in the EWLRT which would add another 16 stops (making it the second longest in North America behind the A Train in New York). I wonder if it will even be possible to operate the entire 41 stop service (and eventual 57 stop service) efficiently and consistently as a single line. I ask because you said the transfer on the EELRT is eliminated which it is but I wonder for how long. I do wonder if the opening of the EWLRT will force Crosstown service to be split at say Yonge, since operating services that long efficiently and consistently is really hard. Latency grows with the length of the line.
The line is going to face so many problems. It'll be overcrowded from day 1 and an interlined SRT replacement section will not be able to cope with the existing transit demands. People are going to get hurt.
Please dont generically say we like all of Toronto agrees with your assessment of LRT. I live on Eglinton and am happy for a LRT.
I'd be happy if I was living on Eglinton and getting anything that isn't a bus, but the LRT on the SRT corridor solves nothing, and, in fact, makes a lot of things worse (loss of high-level platforms, decreases line capacity). I support the subway because I support planning for the forseeable future. However, if I have to be fiscal, I'd go with the SRT replacement with skytrain over an LRT.
