I now have a new worry that did not exist before:
Unfortunately, I thought we were better than this, but.... Could cancellation of Scarborough Subway happen mid-construction? Let's look at the Eglinton subway which was under construction, and got filled in during the 1990s. So there's precedent.
Consider the increased risks today:
(A) All of Metrolinx's new LRTs will be finished (ECLRT, Hurontario). These Euro-style LRTs will move twice as fast as a TTC streetcar, and Toronto finally realizes what good LRT is like. A few percent of Scarborough gets buyer's remorse.
(B) All or most of GO RER may be finished before Scarborough 3 stations. Alternative "subway" suddenly exists in Scarborough.
(C) Potential US debt default in next 8 years, unexpected Canada housing crash, or other major financial crisis
(D) UPX airport train becomes apparently self-sustainable (i.e. profitable), confounding naysayers (even though it should have been $3 public transit, yes)
Let's say, hypothetically, within 8 years, a new city government suggests cancelling the under-construction Scarborough subway (and the provincial government promptly plays along):
(A) if not much yet has has been spent so far on Scarborough subway (e.g. delayed start, construction delays right at beginning...) and cancellation penalties are manageable.
(B) a very tempting Metrolinx LRT carrot (even better than the earlier Scarborough LRT) or two gets dangled, if Metrolinx's has a strong record of their projects not being cancelled
(C) reduce property taxes again
(D) point out all the Scarborough jealousy of all the new Metrolinx infrastructure now newly constructed, massive buyer's remorse.
(E) how wonderful the new Union station is (post-revitalization)
The playing field just changed unexpectedly.
The Scarborough subway risks just went WAY up.
Could a Scarborough subway be cancelled mid-construction?