Danforth Line 2 Scarborough Subway Extension

[Rainforest]

There is a big benefit. There is only limited money and a growing deficit. They don't want to keep spending and then be blamed in the end for wasting taxpayer money. Plus the tory victory made their plans of every fifteen minute go lines more likely which means that the Scarborough conversion is less of a priority then ever. I think you are over estimating how much influence Scarborough has. They didn't just barely win. They won a majority and if anything they need Scarborough less now than ever

There is no benefit for the provincial government. Its contribution to the SLRT project will be same as to the subway project.

In fact, the provincial contribution to the SLRT project may be greater, if they have to cover cost overruns. In case of subway, cost overruns are the city's responsibility.

 

[Rainforest]

How do you figure, exactly?

The re-establishment of the SRT conversion to LRT has consistently polled higher than maintaining the current conversion to subway in the rest of Toronto for the past year. If anything, if they backtrack they would strengthen their position in the rest of the City.

Dan
Toronto, Ont.

Those polls may be misleading if the way the question is asked implies the answer. For example, if they ask "do you prefer a subway, or an LRT that costs less, can be built sooner, has more stops, and serves more people", then a person who is not familiar with the topic is more likely to answer "LRT".

If they ask "do you prefer an LRT, or a subway that will run faster, eliminate the transfer at Kennedy, and whose terminus will be in a location more suitable for the northern Scarborough", then the same person is more likely to answer "subway".

Anyway, quite a few local politicians had campaigned on the subway and won; none campaigned on LRT and won. Those guys may not be exceptionally smart or knowledgeable, but they know what they constituents want to hear.

 

[Rainforest]

The subway won't happen, but I see a very real possibility that the LRT will be delayed again thanks to the extreme pushback from these Scarborough councillors and MPs. They would rather have nothing build on Sheppard unless it's a subway. It remains to me seen whether Tory will grow a spine and stand up to this stupidity, or whether he will "listen to everyone" and compromise by reallocating the LRT funding to SmartTrack, and building the LRT later. He said he wants the LRTs to be built, but with Tory you never know how his position on anything will change.

I think that Tory will not be proactive either way. If Metrolinx proceeds with the Sheppard LRT construction, Tory will not object, and will order the city departments to cooperate.

If Norm Kelly and a few other councilors want to cancel Sheppard LRT, Tory will not stop them, but will not help them either. They will have to fend for themselves (and likely will lose, so the LRT will go ahead).

 

[nfitz]

I think, it's both. The province would not move on the subway if the city did not initiate it. However, the province was interested too, otherwise they would reject the city's approach.

That argument would hold more water if the province hadn't bent over each and every time the approach has already been changed.

Though I don't see how the province could back down on a switch from subway to LRT if the city DID vote for that, given that the signed agreement with the province IS for LRT.

I agree that a shortened subway will be less useful, but hardly a disaster. People will bus to STC instead of Sheppard / McCowan.

If we spend $3 billion on a 2-station extension that only gets us to Scarborough Centre, I'm sure I'm not the only one jumping up and down about broken promises, and how we could have done this by simply keeping Skytrain equipment.

By the way, the LRT option does not solve the 401 crossing problem very well. It does cross 401 but does so too far east. If SLRT is built, then Brimley and McCowan buses will not go east to the Sheppard / Progress station; they will continue south, cross 401, and connect with SLRT south of 401. For those riders, SLRT is no better than a shortened subway.

I'll give you that to some extent. Those north of Sheppard near Markham Road are better off. As is Centennial College. One advantage of the SRT is that 401 crossing could be distributed over Midland and McCowan in addition to the LRT station near Prograss/Markham. But if it's just a subway terminating at McCowan south of 401, then it will push it all onto McCowan.

 

[Rainforest]

That argument would hold more water if the province hadn't bent over each and every time the approach has already been changed.

Not each and every time. Back in 2010, Rob Ford wanted Transit City funds redirected to Sheppard subway as his first priority. The province did not give him that, and he had to accept an agreement where all provincial funds go to Eglinton while he has to find funding for Sheppard himself.

Though I don't see how the province could back down on a switch from subway to LRT if the city DID vote for that, given that the signed agreement with the province IS for LRT.

That would be a cumbersome situation for them. However, they can work behind the curtains and ask the mayor not to initiate this kind of vote by the city.

Doug Ford would be a kind of mayor that does not listen to the province, but he supports that subway anyway. Tory will listen; and so would Chow.

Besides, Tory himself is not interested in cancelling this subway.

Those north of Sheppard near Markham Road are better off. As is Centennial College. One advantage of the SRT is that 401 crossing could be distributed over Midland and McCowan in addition to the LRT station near Prograss/Markham. But if it's just a subway terminating at McCowan south of 401, then it will push it all onto McCowan.

I'd think that Midland and Brimley buses will continue to cross 401 staying their streets, not shift to McCowan (Midland does not even have an interchange with 401, and thus should run better although I am not familiar with the area).

But I agree that subway terminating at STC is not a very good situation. If it happens, I would think of building an LRT line either east along Progress and to Sheppard / Malvern, or up McCowan and then east on Sheppard.

 

[nfitz]

Not each and every time. Back in 2010, Rob Ford wanted Transit City funds redirected to Sheppard subway as his first priority.

Actually he wanted the Danforth subway extended to Scarborough Centre along the RT line - see http://www.blogto.com/city/2011/12/remember_rob_fords_transportation_plan/

The province did not give him that, and he had to accept an agreement where all provincial funds go to Eglinton while he has to find funding for Sheppard himself.

But he did got a concession that the SRT would be run as an extension of the grade-separated Eglinton line, meaning that trains would run through Kennedy without having to change (and onto a grade-separated Eglinton). See http://www.metrolinx.com/en/docs/pdf/board_agenda/20110428/toronto_transit_plan.pdf He couldn't achieve the entire thing because of cost.

Perhaps I should have said the province was willing to consider every change as long as they didn't have to provide additional funds

That would be a cumbersome situation for them. However, they can work behind the curtains and ask the mayor not to initiate this kind of vote by the city.

The mayor has no control over what votes the 44 councillors submit. However I highly doubt that anything like this would be submitted currently - there wasn't enough change-over on council, which already voted for subway.

 

[Rainforest]

The mayor has no control over what votes the 44 councillors submit.

The mayor has some control over the council agenda. He can be overwritten by a 2/3 majority, but such majority is harder to assemble than a simple 50% + 1 vote.

Plus, some horse-trading always takes place, and at least some councilors will prefer not to go directly against the mayor, unless the issue is really critical for them.

However I highly doubt that anything like this would be submitted currently - there wasn't enough change-over on council, which already voted for subway.

Indeed.

 

[nfitz]

The mayor has some control over the council agenda. He can be overwritten by a 2/3 majority, but such majority is harder to assemble than a simple 50% + 1 vote.

No, any councillor can put forth a members motion. Or simply amend a different issue. If I wanted to change the subway back to LRT I'd simply amend any upcoming TTC item to council to change it. If 50+1 support, it's back.

But I don't for a second think that would happen.

Plus, some horse-trading always takes place, and at least some councilors will prefer not to go directly against the mayor, unless the issue is really critical for them.

And that's the real issue. For a good year or so, most councillors wouldn't even go against Ford. Which really doesn't say much about those councillors ...

 

[Rainforest]

And that's the real issue. For a good year or so, most councillors wouldn't even go against Ford. Which really doesn't say much about those councillors ...

I think, it says a lot about Rob Ford and his management skills In just over a year, he managed to bring the normally docile majority to a state where they happily voted against him en masse.

A mayor worth his salt usually avoids open confrontation on the council floor. Looking at either the Miller or Lastman years, it was a lot more quiet and they worked with the councilors before actually putting anything up to a vote.

 

[BurlOak]

Though I don't see how the province could back down on a switch from subway to LRT if the city DID vote for that, given that the signed agreement with the province IS for LRT.

Didn't that happen in 2012/13. The City voted LRT (and signed agreement) and the Province worked hard in the background to push subway.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

How do you figure, exactly?

The re-establishment of the SRT conversion to LRT has consistently polled higher than maintaining the current conversion to subway in the rest of Toronto for the past year. If anything, if they backtrack they would strengthen their position in the rest of the City.

It's not just in the rest of the city. I recall seeing a poll last year showing that a majority of Scaborough residents support the LRT when they're aware of the associated costs.

I really doubt it will happen, the Scarborough subway went through council because of its not horribly shaky ridership and use projections, which sheppard doesn't have. the arguements that persuaded a couple of councillors for the Scarborough subway doesn't exist on Sheppard.

Last vote was 24 to 19 in favour of LRT. If three councillors flip their vote the subway would have won. That's a little too close to comfort.

However the fact that the Line 2 extension has been approved works in our favour. Councillors will be reluctant to vote for a second expensive subway project in Scarborough.

I think that Tory will not be proactive either way. If Metrolinx proceeds with the Sheppard LRT construction, Tory will not object, and will order the city departments to cooperate.

If Norm Kelly and a few other councilors want to cancel Sheppard LRT, Tory will not stop them, but will not help them either. They will have to fend for themselves (and likely will lose, so the LRT will go ahead).

I don't see how Tory could sit this one out. This thing would require massive tax increases. And those tax increases that could have been used for his RER plan.

I expect Tory to be against this proposal. He'll tell people in Scarborough that his RER plan is enough of an improvement for them.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Well maybe if this thing does go over budget Council will finally consider a cheaper compromise: bury the ECLRT and make it and the SRT a single line

 

[GenerationW]

Well maybe if this thing does go over budget Council will finally consider a cheaper compromise: bury the ECLRT and make it and the SRT a single line

We'd actually have to build B-D to see if it goes over budget. Eglinton would be long finished by then.

With so many parties on board, I don't see how this will be anything but subway. I expect that the province will throw in some more cash if the estimated cost goes up, and maybe even if it doesn't.

 

[nfitz]

Didn't that happen in 2012/13. The City voted LRT (and signed agreement) and the Province worked hard in the background to push subway.

Something like that. I'm trying very hard to forget late 2010-2014.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

We'd actually have to build B-D to see if it goes over budget. Eglinton would be long finished by then.

With so many parties on board, I don't see how this will be anything but subway. I expect that the province will throw in some more cash if the estimated cost goes up, and maybe even if it doesn't.

It's essy: for this to be built the city has to step up to the plate with it's own funding. Once that funding is withdrawn, we revert back to the SLRT.