Danforth Line 2 Scarborough Subway Extension

[innsertnamehere]

^you have to think within reality as well. $2 billion for the line isn't realistic really, its too low on a per km basis. $3 billion is more realistic and is in line with what a subway like this would be expected to cost on a per km basis. If it starts to go much more above that the cost starts to get really unusually large for a project like this, it simply isn't likely.


Spacings report failed to account for dollar years as well, it was a pretty glaring hole. When it jumped from $2.5 billion to $3 billion it wasn't actually a change in projected price, but a change from 2010 $ to escalated $.

When comparing the cost of the subway to the cost of the LRT you should use $2010, but everyone uses the escalated $ which is not a level comparision.

 

[BurlOak]

While the exact numbers may be an exaggeration, is there any doubt that a plan this complex, which was hastily rammed through council primarily so that Ford and Stintz could use it for their respective mayoral campaigns, will not see it's final cost greatly increase? The Spacing.ca report suggests that transit officials estimates in May had the project at $400 million more that what the politicians were saying - and that estimate itself may still be a low-ball.

Are you refering to the 5 part Spacing investigation?

You seem to forget that the Provincial Liberals were fingered as major players in the Scarborough subway decision. And it worked, they got their majority.

 

[TransitPolicyChanger]

Are you refering to the 5 part Spacing investigation?

You seem to forget that the Provincial Liberals were fingered as major players in the Scarborough subway decision. And it worked, they got their majority.

I don't think the province Ontario voted in a majority Liberal government because of the Scarborough Subway ... If that was the case watch out for Doug if he makes his talked about move to provincial politics :s Subways for Ontario!

 

[Palma]

I don't think the province Ontario voted in a majority Liberal government because of the Scarborough Subway ... If that was the case watch out for Doug if he makes his talked about move to provincial politics :s Subways for Ontario!

Exactly. And now that the Liberals have their majority they can backtrack on that Scarborough subway, It's not like they have not done so in the past. They got re-elected in spite of the gas scandals, email deletions, Ornge and e-health waste. I doubt them back tracking on the Scarborough subway will damage them come 2018.

 

[nfitz]

Exactly. And now that the Liberals have their majority they can backtrack on that Scarborough subway, It's not like they have not done so in the past.

The Liberals were pretty clear that it was up to council on this. The government has consistently followed council's lead. The previous backtracking has all been at the behest of council.

 

[sixrings]

Exactly. And now that the Liberals have their majority they can backtrack on that Scarborough subway, It's not like they have not done so in the past. They got re-elected in spite of the gas scandals, email deletions, Ornge and e-health waste. I doubt them back tracking on the Scarborough subway will damage them come 2018.

I did not vote Liberal to ensure a Subway conversion. There are probably at least 10 reasons I voted Liberal and the Subway was not one of them and that is from someone who grew up and called Scarborough home until his early 20s. Similarly I am sure most people who voted for FORD years ago voted for him because 1. They wanted the Anti-David Miller and 2. They wanted to cut the waste and get rid of the gravy train. The Subway was such a small part of FORDS campaign.

Will be very happy if they backtrack on this stupid decision.

 

[Rainforest]

Exactly. And now that the Liberals have their majority they can backtrack on that Scarborough subway, It's not like they have not done so in the past. They got re-elected in spite of the gas scandals, email deletions, Ornge and e-health waste. I doubt them back tracking on the Scarborough subway will damage them come 2018.

Liberals will take a hit in 2018 if they backtrack on Scarborough subway.

And, there is no benefit for them in backtracking. The provincial contribution will not change. In fact, the provincial contribution may be greater for the SLRT option (covering a cost overrun if it happens).

The federal and the municipal contributions to the subway are all committed. City is on the hook of any cost overruns.

If the cost of subway goes higher than what the city can accept, they will cut the subway back to STC, making it less useful but technically still fulfilling the promise. Cutting back to STC will cut 25% of the length and at least 20% of the cost.

 

[nfitz]

Liberals will take a hit in 2018 if they backtrack on Scarborough subway.

It's very little to do with the provincial government. It's up the city. I didn't see Wynne or Murray campaigning hard on the Scarborough subway. They promised to do EA, and listen to city.

If the cost of subway goes higher than what the city can accept, they will cut the subway back to STC, making it less useful but technically still fulfilling the promise. Cutting back to STC will cut 25% of the length and at least 20% of the cost.

Shorten it to STC? Good grief, that's worst suggestion yet!

Very few people actually walk from STC. Most take transit. Most of which have to cross the 401. Stopping the subway at STC would be disaster. Surely the much cheaper LRT to Sheppard/Markham would be a far better solution

If we are going to end up spending $3 billion on a 2-station extension to STC, we'd be better off simply spending $300 million or so to replace the existing SRT vehicles, extend the existing stations a bit, and fix the curve at Ellesmere!

 

[sixrings]

Liberals will take a hit in 2018 if they backtrack on Scarborough subway.

And, there is no benefit for them in backtracking. The provincial contribution will not change. In fact, the provincial contribution may be greater for the SLRT option (covering a cost overrun if it happens).

The federal and the municipal contributions to the subway are all committed. City is on the hook of any cost overruns.

If the cost of subway goes higher than what the city can accept, they will cut the subway back to STC, making it less useful but technically still fulfilling the promise. Cutting back to STC will cut 25% of the length and at least 20% of the cost.

There is a big benefit. There is only limited money and a growing deficit. They don't want to keep spending and then be blamed in the end for wasting taxpayer money. Plus the tory victory made their plans of every fifteen minute go lines more likely which means that the Scarborough conversion is less of a priority then ever. I think you are over estimating how much influence Scarborough has. They didn't just barely win. They won a majority and if anything they need Scarborough less now than ever

 

[smallspy]

Liberals will take a hit in 2018 if they backtrack on Scarborough subway.

How do you figure, exactly?

The re-establishment of the SRT conversion to LRT has consistently polled higher than maintaining the current conversion to subway in the rest of Toronto for the past year. If anything, if they backtrack they would strengthen their position in the rest of the City.

Dan
Toronto, Ont.

 

[salsa]

The Liberals were pretty clear that it was up to council on this. The government has consistently followed council's lead. The previous backtracking has all been at the behest of council.

Except the Scarborough MPs are still quietly trying to kill the Sheppard LRT, against council's will.

 

[nfitz]

Except the Scarborough MPs are still quietly trying to kill the Sheppard LRT, against council's will.

That's a completely different issue. We're talking about the SRT replacement here.

Besides, the whole basis of that, is that the move by some Scarborough councillors to kill the Sheppard LRT first, that it is rumoured that Kelly will bring to council soon. Presumably if that loses, the Scarborough MPs will have little chance of success.

 

[innsertnamehere]

I really doubt it will happen, the Scarborough subway went through council because of its not horribly shaky ridership and use projections, which sheppard doesn't have. the arguements that persuaded a couple of councillors for the Scarborough subway doesn't exist on Sheppard.

 

[salsa]

I really doubt it will happen, the Scarborough subway went through council because of its not horribly shaky ridership and use projections, which sheppard doesn't have. the arguements that persuaded a couple of councillors for the Scarborough subway doesn't exist on Sheppard.

The subway won't happen, but I see a very real possibility that the LRT will be delayed again thanks to the extreme pushback from these Scarborough councillors and MPs. They would rather have nothing build on Sheppard unless it's a subway. It remains to me seen whether Tory will grow a spine and stand up to this stupidity, or whether he will "listen to everyone" and compromise by reallocating the LRT funding to SmartTrack, and building the LRT later. He said he wants the LRTs to be built, but with Tory you never know how his position on anything will change.

 

[Rainforest]

It's very little to do with the provincial government. It's up the city. I didn't see Wynne or Murray campaigning hard on the Scarborough subway. They promised to do EA, and listen to city.

I think, it's both. The province would not move on the subway if the city did not initiate it. However, the province was interested too, otherwise they would reject the city's approach.

Of course they did not campaign on it last time; it is a done deal for them, and besides their PC opponents would not be likely to cancel it, either.

Shorten it to STC? Good grief, that's worst suggestion yet!

Very few people actually walk from STC. Most take transit. Most of which have to cross the 401. Stopping the subway at STC would be disaster. Surely the much cheaper LRT to Sheppard/Markham would be a far better solution

If we are going to end up spending $3 billion on a 2-station extension to STC, we'd be better off simply spending $300 million or so to replace the existing SRT vehicles, extend the existing stations a bit, and fix the curve at Ellesmere!

I agree that a shortened subway will be less useful, but hardly a disaster. People will bus to STC instead of Sheppard / McCowan.

By the way, the LRT option does not solve the 401 crossing problem very well. It does cross 401 but does so too far east. If SLRT is built, then Brimley and McCowan buses will not go east to the Sheppard / Progress station; they will continue south, cross 401, and connect with SLRT south of 401. For those riders, SLRT is no better than a shortened subway.