Danforth Line 2 Scarborough Subway Extension

[Rainforest]

I always love seeing this because buses is exactly what Scarborough is almost certainly going to get. Lets face it the SRT isn't going to last to 2030 (or lets be realistic, somewhere between 2032-2035 due to inevitable delays). So what do we do? Do but Vancouvers Mk.I's? They don't have drivers cabs which is no problem to me but the TTC certainly isn't on board with the idea of the SRT being ATO, especially when winter rolls around. How much money do we sink into the SRT to keep it running? At what point would the cost of preserving what we have out way updating the SRT to modern Innovia standards? Obviously though we can't do that either since upgrading the SRT renders the SSE moot. Bustitution is inevitable and I don't look forward to it. Hell we don't even have enough spare buses or garage space to replace the SRT. What if we do decide to purchase more buses to replace the SRT, who pay's for that? The SSE is a provincial project so are they going to shell out the money to buy new buses and a new garage? Are they going to pay for Vancouver's trains. because Vancouver isn't going to just give us their Mk.I's for free. You already know the answer to this. Scarborough is screwed for the next decade or so because the project we are hinging all our ambitions on is still 10+ years away and we have no plan for the interim when the shit hits the fan.

Maybe the existing SRT cars can go though another rehab, and that can keep them running till 2030 or even 2032.

If the above isn't feasible, then there is a real risk that Scarborough will have to rely on buses for a few years. Buying Vancouver's MK-1 cars just for a few years of service doesn't seem likely.

There are no provisions for a massive new bus fleet, either. Maybe a few new buses can be purchased, but the bulk of Scarborough express buses will be just shifted from local routes, taken from both Scarborough and the rest of TTC service area. Like it or not.

Some mitigations are possible. Not all express buses need to run to Kennedy. Some can run to Agincourt GO, then the Don Mills subway terminus, and some to the Lakeshore East GO stations. Temporary GO fare discounts can be set. Temporary (?) dedicated bus lanes can be designated on the relevant streets, reducing both the travel times and the number of buses needed.

Still, the whole system will feel the impact.

 

[Steve X]

Maybe the existing SRT cars can go though another rehab, and that can keep them running till 2030 or even 2032.

If the above isn't feasible, then there is a real risk that Scarborough will have to rely on buses for a few years. Buying Vancouver's MK-1 cars just for a few years of service doesn't seem likely.

There are no provisions for a massive new bus fleet, either. Maybe a few new buses can be purchased, but the bulk of Scarborough express buses will be just shifted from local routes, taken from both Scarborough and the rest of TTC service area. Like it or not.

Some mitigations are possible. Not all express buses need to run to Kennedy. Some can run to Agincourt GO, then the Don Mills subway terminus, and some to the Lakeshore East GO stations. Temporary GO fare discounts can be set. Temporary (?) dedicated bus lanes can be designated on the relevant streets, reducing both the travel times and the number of buses needed.

Still, the whole system will feel the impact.

Originally the 55 Nova buses bought in 2015 was intended for the SRT shutdown which was purposed as replacement buses. That's about the number to buy if the SRT were to shutdown that year.

 

[blacksquirrels]

The concept is great, but this option has a massive external dependency: expansion of the Union rail corridor. Otherwise, it wouldn't be possible to support the SmartSpur frequency needed for an intra-city operation.

"SmartSpur is based largely on the fact that upgrades – already under way – to double-track the Stouffville corridor and add a fourth track to the Lakeshore East line offer far more capacity than GO needs. Twenty trains an hour on the corridor, when it only needs four to serve Markham. Running subway-like frequencies, the remaining 16 trains an hour, will require a state-of-the-art signalling system, not cheap, but overall potential savings were estimated to be in excess of $2-billion, and that was before the subway-option’s tunnelling and station cost estimates soared."

Quote from Wickens. So what would need to be done beyond what's stated above to make it that idea a reality?

 

[BurlOak]

"SmartSpur is based largely on the fact that upgrades – already under way – to double-track the Stouffville corridor and add a fourth track to the Lakeshore East line offer far more capacity than GO needs. Twenty trains an hour on the corridor, when it only needs four to serve Markham. Running subway-like frequencies, the remaining 16 trains an hour, will require a state-of-the-art signalling system, not cheap, but overall potential savings were estimated to be in excess of $2-billion, and that was before the subway-option’s tunnelling and station cost estimates soared."

Quote from Wickens. So what would need to be done beyond what's stated above to make it that idea a reality?

I looked at this a while ago to stage it so as to minimize the SRT closure. I have no idea which thread it was on - likely this one.

Basically, the Lakeshore corridor governs the capacity to STC. I think I assumed 2 electrified tracks on LSE, with service every 2.5 minutes - that's 24 trains per hour. 8 trains towards Pickering, 16 up past Kennedy, with 8 going to STC (and Centennial or Malvern) and 8 going to Markham. There was also the idea that a short turn train be added that would zip between Malvern and Kennedy - taking that slot that the Pickering train was on to keep 24 trains per hour on the N-S GO corridor. STC then gets 16 trains per hour, with alternating trains going downtown or short-turning at Kennedy.

The main reason this was shot down was becuase it appeared to be part of the John Tory SmartTrack, but would require co-operation and money from the Province. Kathleen Wynne and the Liberals, via Metrolinx, were not willing to have a project were much of the money comes from the Province, but most of the credit would go to the Mayor.

 

[Midtown Urbanist]

The main reason this was shot down was becuase it appeared to be part of the John Tory SmartTrack, but would require co-operation and money from the Province. Kathleen Wynne and the Liberals, via Metrolinx, were not willing to have a project were much of the money comes from the Province, but most of the credit would go to the Mayor.

And ain't that just the damned problem.

 

[M II A II R II K]

Metrolinx hopes to start tunnelling Scarborough subway by spring 2021

'This isn’t a project for Scarborough transit users,' says advocacy group, which would prefer an LRT network instead.

www.toronto.com

 

[blacksquirrels]

I looked at this a while ago to stage it so as to minimize the SRT closure. I have no idea which thread it was on - likely this one.

Basically, the Lakeshore corridor governs the capacity to STC. I think I assumed 2 electrified tracks on LSE, with service every 2.5 minutes - that's 24 trains per hour. 8 trains towards Pickering, 16 up past Kennedy, with 8 going to STC (and Centennial or Malvern) and 8 going to Markham. There was also the idea that a short turn train be added that would zip between Malvern and Kennedy - taking that slot that the Pickering train was on to keep 24 trains per hour on the N-S GO corridor. STC then gets 16 trains per hour, with alternating trains going downtown or short-turning at Kennedy.

The main reason this was shot down was becuase it appeared to be part of the John Tory SmartTrack, but would require co-operation and money from the Province. Kathleen Wynne and the Liberals, via Metrolinx, were not willing to have a project were much of the money comes from the Province, but most of the credit would go to the Mayor.

Seems like you're describing the sad state of politics in this province. Could QP be so petty? This whole system needs to revamped and reinvented when painfully obvious and cost effective solutions are ignored. Sometimes it's just too depressing to even think about.

Anyways the service you are describing above would be ideal in my opinion. It's an S-Bahn like service 6 to 8 trains per line or branch, per hour merging to create a frequency of 24 trains per hour on a shared track pair. Sounds perfect to me. The reach this kind of service would have would be incredible and transformational for Scarborough & Toronto residents. Add in the fact they would save roughly 2 billion from the current SSE plan and it's a no brainer. The extra saved 2 billion saved also builds the Eglinton Crosstown East.

So option 1 - SSE for roughly 5 billion (3 stations) for political reasons.

option 2 - 3 Surface subway lines (14 stations) + Eglinton Crosstown East for logical reasons.

And option 2 could probably break ground in a year or two and be completed within 4 years.

 

[BurlOak]

Metrolinx hopes to start tunnelling Scarborough subway by spring 2021

'This isn’t a project for Scarborough transit users,' says advocacy group, which would prefer an LRT network instead.

www.toronto.com

After 10 years you would think the LRT crowd would have changed their tactics. Instead of proposing something reasonable, they continually revert back to the David Miller plan, in some type of loyalty to the most socialist Mayor the city has had.
If at some time during the past 10 years they would have made reasonable compromises - perhaps we would have achieved something better.
Instead, the other side had to look for any alternative that they could in order to connect Scarborough to the core.
When subway was the only one that could stick - I understand why the reluctance of the subway crowd to not move away.
Continued insistance on the transfer LRT just got the subway crowd to dig in their heels.
Essentially, all sides are responsible for this overpriced fiasco.

 

[M II A II R II K]

That they’d actually start tunneling a year from now.

 

[syn]

After 10 years you would think the LRT crowd would have changed their tactics. Instead of proposing something reasonable, they continually revert back to the David Miller plan, in some type of loyalty to the most socialist Mayor the city has had.
If at some time during the past 10 years they would have made reasonable compromises - perhaps we would have achieved something better.
Instead, the other side had to look for any alternative that they could in order to connect Scarborough to the core.
When subway was the only one that could stick - I understand why the reluctance of the subway crowd to not move away.
Continued insistance on the transfer LRT just got the subway crowd to dig in their heels.
Essentially, all sides are responsible for this overpriced fiasco.

The most 'socialist mayor the city has had' is the only one who seemed to know how to accomplish anything. All of the transit projects currently under construction are from the Miller era. If we'd stuck with his plans Scarborough would have their own version of the 'Ontario Line' up and running right now, giving everyone the ability to turn their focus towards the DRL and a Sheppard extension to STC. The biggest new revenue generating tool the city has seen (Land Transfer Tax) hasn't been touched by Ford nor Tory, and the waste Ford claimed Miller left behind was proven to not exist.

There is no LRT crowd. There's a crowd that's looking for a sensible solution. Ford did not compromise on anything, so it's hilarious you continually try and paint him as the voice of reason.

City Council did come up with a great compromise to his Eglinton plan - instead of burying the entire thing and stripping funding for everything else, they suggested they keep the eastern Scarborough portion above ground until it followed the current RT route, completely grade separated. This would've allowed for a Sheppard extension to Victoria Park, and funds for the Finch West LRT.

Ford didn't want any of it.

In the grand scheme of things, Miller was really the last Mayor who understood what the city needed, and knew how to build the consensus to get things done.

 

[JSF-1]

Metrolinx hopes to start tunnelling Scarborough subway by spring 2021

'This isn’t a project for Scarborough transit users,' says advocacy group, which would prefer an LRT network instead.

www.toronto.com

I'm a little confused on how the projects timeline has seemingly doubled. Under the old plan the extension was proposed to open in 5 years (add 2 for delays). Now the timeline has grown to 8 years overnight (once again add 2 for delays so lets say 10 years). What happened that caused an extra 3-5 years to the project because that seems ridiculously excessive for an extra kilometer of track and 2 extra stations. It shouldn't take more than 5 years to tunnel the entire extension so what happened? We tunneled the 10+ kilometers to the Eglinton Crosstown in 7 years so why does it seem like its going to take just as long to tunnel on 7.8 Kilometers? These timelines don't seem to add up.

 

[sixrings]

I'm a little confused on how the projects timeline has seemingly doubled. Under the old plan the extension was proposed to open in 5 years (add 2 for delays). Now the timeline has grown to 8 years overnight (once again add 2 for delays so lets say 10 years). What happened that caused an extra 3-5 years to the project because that seems ridiculously excessive for an extra kilometer of track and 2 extra stations. It shouldn't take more than 5 years to tunnel the entire extension so what happened? We tunneled the 10+ kilometers to the Eglinton Crosstown in 7 years so why does it seem like its going to take just as long to tunnel on 7.8 Kilometers? These timelines don't seem to add up.

2035 just like the OL. And by then the extension will be cheapened to just a stop at Lawrence and STC with no extension to Sheppard. 2035 imagine how developed SQ1 will be by then without any subway to help spur development.

 

[Rainforest]

I'm a little confused on how the projects timeline has seemingly doubled. Under the old plan the extension was proposed to open in 5 years (add 2 for delays). Now the timeline has grown to 8 years overnight (once again add 2 for delays so lets say 10 years). What happened that caused an extra 3-5 years to the project because that seems ridiculously excessive for an extra kilometer of track and 2 extra stations. It shouldn't take more than 5 years to tunnel the entire extension so what happened? We tunneled the 10+ kilometers to the Eglinton Crosstown in 7 years so why does it seem like its going to take just as long to tunnel on 7.8 Kilometers? These timelines don't seem to add up.

I think that's the consequence of flipping from the 3-stop plan to 1-stop, and back. On top of that, the province may be purposely delaying SSE by a couple of years, in order for the bulk of its cost not to fall into the same period as the bulk of the Ontario Line cost.

 

[Rainforest]

2035 just like the OL. And by then the extension will be cheapened to just a stop at Lawrence and STC with no extension to Sheppard. 2035 imagine how developed SQ1 will be by then without any subway to help spur development.

The opening date can easily slip to 2035 or so. But the loss of the Sheppard station is hardly possible if they are building the launch shaft at Sheppard and starting the tunneling from there.

 

[Steve X]

I'm a little confused on how the projects timeline has seemingly doubled. Under the old plan the extension was proposed to open in 5 years (add 2 for delays). Now the timeline has grown to 8 years overnight (once again add 2 for delays so lets say 10 years). What happened that caused an extra 3-5 years to the project because that seems ridiculously excessive for an extra kilometer of track and 2 extra stations. It shouldn't take more than 5 years to tunnel the entire extension so what happened? We tunneled the 10+ kilometers to the Eglinton Crosstown in 7 years so why does it seem like its going to take just as long to tunnel on 7.8 Kilometers? These timelines don't seem to add up.

Traditionally the TTC contracts the station and the tunnel together. ML does tunnels separately then the stations two years later.