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Danforth Line 2 Scarborough Subway Extension

Allandale25 said:
Toronto staff report up. Staff have Scarborough Subway Extension questions at the end of the report.
Click to expand...
And budgetary stuff.

Current cost estimate of Province's plan: $5.5 billion.
  • City has committed $1 billion (unadjusted for inflation) for the project.
  • City will commit an additional $0.660 billion for the project from Toronto's allocation of the federal PTIF2 funding.
  • In 2013, the Province committed $1.48 billion for the project.
That means $3.14 billion out of $5.5 billion has been committed, or 56% of the cost estimate.

If the Feds matched the City's contribution of $1.66 billion, and the Province upped their commitment due to the expanded scope, then the Province would need to commit $2.18 billion.

Which, unless I got the math terribly wrong, all seems reasonable asks of the three levels of government (totally independent of whether this is a wise use of $5.5 billion).
 
WislaHD said:
And budgetary stuff.

Current cost estimate of Province's plan: $5.5 billion.
  • City has committed $1 billion (unadjusted for inflation) for the project.
  • City will commit an additional $0.660 billion for the project from Toronto's allocation of the federal PTIF2 funding.
  • In 2013, the Province committed $1.48 billion for the project.
That means $3.14 billion out of $5.5 billion has been committed, or 56% of the cost estimate.

If the Feds matched the City's contribution of $1.66 billion, and the Province upped their commitment due to the expanded scope, then the Province would need to commit $2.18 billion.

Which, unless I got the math terribly wrong, all seems reasonable asks of the three levels of government (totally independent of whether this is a wise use of $5.5 billion).
Click to expand...
What is the $660M PTIF2 funding? The federal government announced the $660M funding back in 2013. Did the Trudeau gov't not add any money to this pot? Did they just re-brand the previous announcement as their own?
 
WislaHD said:
And budgetary stuff.

Current cost estimate of Province's plan: $5.5 billion.
  • City has committed $1 billion (unadjusted for inflation) for the project.
  • City will commit an additional $0.660 billion for the project from Toronto's allocation of the federal PTIF2 funding.
  • In 2013, the Province committed $1.48 billion for the project.
That means $3.14 billion out of $5.5 billion has been committed, or 56% of the cost estimate.

If the Feds matched the City's contribution of $1.66 billion, and the Province upped their commitment due to the expanded scope, then the Province would need to commit $2.18 billion.

Which, unless I got the math terribly wrong, all seems reasonable asks of the three levels of government (totally independent of whether this is a wise use of $5.5 billion).
Click to expand...

My main concern is not the cost, I believe $5.5 billion is reasonable for the 3-station plan, but the delay caused by the new chance of direction. Shovels in the ground might not happen before the next provincial elections, and then if the government changes, the new government will be tempted to get their crayons out again.
 
BurlOak said:
What is the $660M PTIF2 funding? The federal government announced the $660M funding back in 2013. Did the Trudeau gov't not add any money to this pot? Did they just re-brand the previous announcement as their own?
Click to expand...

Most likely, they re-branded it. All governments, not just Trudeau, keep re-announcing their investments until the funding is actually spent. Obviously, federal funding for SSE hasn't been spent yet.
 
Rainforest said:
My main concern is not the cost, I believe $5.5 billion is reasonable for the 3-station plan, but the delay caused by the new chance of direction. Shovels in the ground might not happen before the next provincial elections, and then if the government changes, the new government will be tempted to get their crayons out again.
Click to expand...

Ford basically handcuffed the opposition parties with this transit plan. He gave his supporters what they wanted the most and threw the ultimate wrench into the opposition by giving the areas of his biggest haters what they've been begging their preferred parties for. I don't see any of these lines proposed being overturned once they are closing in on construction.

Why?

*they are now beyond urgent for both the SSE and OL for obvious reasons -this is key
*they are heavily supported locally
*the SSE will now have stops and this needed to be fixed
*the OL will actually provide relief going to eglinton and this needed to be fixed
*developers are at the table
*there is no opposition to play filibuster games against Ford this time
*the financing required to build proper lines can be accessed at the Provincial level
*any other party that cancels will have to own it knowing exactly the critical stage we are at

Ford will either become a hero across entire City or another party will cut the ribbons and take the credit when these lines get built. The slight delay sucks but I expect it all to be for the best as far as these projects are concerned
 
Last edited:
WislaHD said:
And budgetary stuff.

Current cost estimate of Province's plan: $5.5 billion.
  • City has committed $1 billion (unadjusted for inflation) for the project.
  • City will commit an additional $0.660 billion for the project from Toronto's allocation of the federal PTIF2 funding.
  • In 2013, the Province committed $1.48 billion for the project.
That means $3.14 billion out of $5.5 billion has been committed, or 56% of the cost estimate.

If the Feds matched the City's contribution of $1.66 billion, and the Province upped their commitment due to the expanded scope, then the Province would need to commit $2.18 billion.

Which, unless I got the math terribly wrong, all seems reasonable asks of the three levels of government (totally independent of whether this is a wise use of $5.5 billion).
Click to expand...

I can't help but believe that $5.5 billion is quite a low-ball estimate.
 
OneCity said:
Ford basically handcuffed the opposition parties with this transit plan. He gave his supporters what they wanted the most and threw the ultimate wrench into the opposition by giving the areas of his biggest haters what they've been begging their preferred parties for. I don't see any of these lines proposed being overturned once they are closing in on construction.

Why?

*they are now beyond urgent for both the SSE and OL for obvious reasons -this is key
*they are heavily supported locally
*the SSE will now have stops and this needed to be fixed
*the OL will actually provide relief going to eglinton and this needed to be fixed
*developers are at the table
*there is no opposition to play filibuster games against Ford this time
*the financing required to build proper lines can be accessed at the Provincial level
*any other party that cancels will have to own it knowing exactly the critical stage we are at

Ford will either become a hero across entire City or another party will cut the ribbons and take the credit when these lines get built. The slight delay sucks but I expect it all to be for the best as far as these projects are concerned
Click to expand...

Hm, if it is true that Michael Schabas is working at Metrolinx again, which seems to be the case, it sort of makes sense to expect to see SSE reversed to the pre-SLRT plan to upgrade Line 3. If it can be built quicker and for less money, and savings could go into another area project like reviving Sheppard, it would gain a lot of traction both at QP and the local level. I wouldn't rule it out, and not because any fiscal conservative mandate. Rather because Schabas Scarb Wye plan was actually pretty good.

Also scaling back grand plans is as much a tradition in these parts as presenting them.
 
44 North said:
Hm, if it is true that Michael Schabas is working at Metrolinx again, which seems to be the case, it sort of makes sense to expect to see SSE reversed to the pre-SLRT plan to upgrade Line 3. If it can be built quicker and for less money, and savings could go into another area project like reviving Sheppard, it would gain a lot of traction both at QP and the local level. I wouldn't rule it out, and not because any fiscal conservative mandate. Rather because Schabas Scarb Wye plan was actually pretty good.

Also scaling back grand plans is as much a tradition in these parts as presenting them.
Click to expand...

As much as I'd like to imagine it happening, I have a raelly hard time seeing ford accepting anything that reintroduces the Kennedy transfer. MAYBE if it were through routed with Eglinton, but that has a lot of issues, including legitimately being bottlenecked by the surface section in such a configuration. That whole Scarborough BRANCH of Smart-Track seems more like the kind of thing that Ford would buy into, but especially if taken as a branch of the Ontario Line gets us back to requiring the freight bypass and puts us WAY beyond the timelines the SRT can be kept alive for. We're stuck with the subway unless it gets delays so much that it's still a live issue after Ford leaves office IMO - and if that happens we're just generally screwed anyway.
 
OneCity said:
Ford basically handcuffed the opposition parties with this transit plan. He gave his supporters what they wanted the most and threw the ultimate wrench into the opposition by giving the areas of his biggest haters what they've been begging their preferred parties for. I don't see any of these lines proposed being overturned once they are closing in on construction.

Why?

*they are now beyond urgent for both the SSE and OL for obvious reasons -this is key
*they are heavily supported locally
*the SSE will now have stops and this needed to be fixed
*the OL will actually provide relief going to eglinton and this needed to be fixed
*developers are at the table
*there is no opposition to play filibuster games against Ford this time
*the financing required to build proper lines can be accessed at the Provincial level
*any other party that cancels will have to own it knowing exactly the critical stage we are at

Ford will either become a hero across entire City or another party will cut the ribbons and take the credit when these lines get built. The slight delay sucks but I expect it all to be for the best as far as these projects are concerned
Click to expand...

I'm not sure how you can still be optimistic about this project after Ford's announcement.

He basically gave DRL/OL and Yonge-North priority over this project.

The new delay means it can be delayed even further now.
 
Bureaucromancer said:
We're stuck with the subway unless it gets delays so much that it's still a live issue after Ford leaves office IMO - and if that happens we're just generally screwed anyway.
Click to expand...

Based on the timelines in Ford's announcement SSE will still be in the design stage during the next provincial election.
 
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