Danforth Line 2 Scarborough Subway Extension

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Keep in mind we're at $4 billion right now. How much does it go up by the time they're anywhere close beginning construction?

Two more stops would likely push it well past $5 billion, probably closer to $6 billion.

Let's not exaggerate...4.5 billion is enough of a bad message.

 

[syn]

Let's not exaggerate...4.5 billion is enough of a bad message.

Exaggerate??

I've consistently been accused over the past few years of exaggerating and I (unfortunately) ended up being very accurate.

When the cost was estimated at $2 billion the idea that it could go to $4 billion with no extra stops would've been considered trolling. The estimate years ago for the three stop plan was $4 billion. There's no way it would only go up by $500 million after all this time, especially since the province wants the last top north of STC.

It will unquestionably be more than $4.5 billion unless they do some very creative accounting or cut a lot of corners.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Exaggerate??

I've consistently been accused over the past few years of exaggerating and I (unfortunately) ended up being very accurate.

When the cost was estimated at $2 billion the idea that it could go to $4 billion with no extra stops would've been considered trolling. The estimate years ago for the three stop plan was $4 billion. There's no way it would only go up by $500 million after all this time, especially since the province wants the last top north of STC.

It will unquestionably be more than $4.5 billion unless they do some very creative accounting or cut a lot of corners.

I'm not picking on you, just saying let's not invite a fight with pro subway people.

 

[innsertnamehere]

There are huge differences in how the $2 billion vs. the $4 billion is calculated however.

Minus off public realm improvements, and convert from escalated costs to 2014 dollars as the original $2 billion estimate was in, and I'm sure it's not too far off. The jump from $2 billion to $3.2 billion is entirely because of an accounting method, not actual higher incurred costs.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

There are huge differences in how the $2 billion vs. the $4 billion is calculated however.

Minus off public realm improvements, and convert from escalated costs to 2014 dollars as the original $2 billion estimate was in, and I'm sure it's not too far off. The jump from $2 billion to $3.2 billion is entirely because of an accounting method, not actual higher incurred costs.

This makes it seems like people use these numbers on purely political agendas. For the reality is the cost of this project is way too high right now. There's no reason why this should not be capped off at 3.75 billion even with more stops.

 

[syn]

I'm not picking on you, just saying let's not invite a fight with pro subway people.

Sorry that read a lot more aggressive than I meant it to be!

 

[TheTigerMaster]

There are huge differences in how the $2 billion vs. the $4 billion is calculated however.

Minus off public realm improvements, and convert from escalated costs to 2014 dollars as the original $2 billion estimate was in, and I'm sure it's not too far off. The jump from $2 billion to $3.2 billion is entirely because of an accounting method, not actual higher incurred costs.

What was the accounting method change?

 

[innsertnamehere]

What was the accounting method change?

Escalated spending vs. non-escalated in a certain years dollar value.

The LRT was always costed in 2010 dollars - which means what it would have cost if all spending had occurred at the price of labour, materials, etc. in 2010. In reality things cost the price they cost when they are used - so something that costs $100 in 2013 when the subway was first approved may actually cost $150 in 2023 when the money is actually spent due to inflation. measuring your budget in "escalated" spending inflates costs as it makes a project seem very expensive in today's dollars.

 

[syn]

Escalated spending vs. non-escalated in a certain years dollar value.

The LRT was always costed in 2010 dollars - which means what it would have cost if all spending had occurred at the price of labour, materials, etc. in 2010. In reality things cost the price they cost when they are used - so something that costs $100 in 2013 when the subway was first approved may actually cost $150 in 2023 when the money is actually spent due to inflation. measuring your budget in "escalated" spending inflates costs as it makes a project seem very expensive in today's dollars.

This doesn't explain the cost doubling over a roughly 3 year span of time.

Inflation costs would probably bump things up to $2.2 billion or so, not $4 billion.

 

[innsertnamehere]

This doesn't explain the cost doubling over a roughly 3 year span of time.

Inflation costs would probably bump things up to $2.2 billion or so, not $4 billion.

construction costs escalate much faster than inflation. Last year saw costs increase by almost 15% IIRC - mind you that is well above normal, but 5% annual increases is pretty standard.

The accounting change only reflects the increase from $2 to $3.2 as well - other cost increases are attributed to scope creep. The scope creep mostly comes from the city doing land use planning studies for STC and realizing the kinds of spending required in the area that can be bundled into the subway project (road reconfigurations, public realm improvements, etc.).

If you compound a 3.7% annual inflation rate to 2026 from 2013, $2 billion becomes $3.2. It's not that crazy.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

construction costs escalate much faster than inflation. Last year saw costs increase by almost 15% IIRC - mind you that is well above normal, but 5% annual increases is pretty standard.

The accounting change only reflects the increase from $2 to $3.2 as well - other cost increases are attributed to scope creep. The scope creep mostly comes from the city doing land use planning studies for STC and realizing the kinds of spending required in the area that can be bundled into the subway project (road reconfigurations, public realm improvements, etc.).

If construction costs are increasing faster than inflation, the price to taxpayers is also increasing. I don’t see how this is due to an accounting change. Idk if it accounts for the entire incrase, but it must be a big factor.

 

[syn]

If construction costs are increasing faster than inflation, the price to taxpayers is also increasing. I don’t see how this is due to an accounting change. Idk if it accounts for the entire incrase, but it must be a big factor.

Exactly - it also doesn't explain how costs for other projects are not doubling in a relatively short period of time.

I believe the original estimate for building the Eglinton Crosstown was $4.6 billion. It's now $5.3 billion. A big increase, but certainly not double - and the Crosstown has been under construction for a while now.

The SSE has doubled in cost, and I'm not even sure there at the 50% point in the design phase. The cost continues to skyrocket even though they've had to drop the entire Crosstown East LRT extension as part of the plan.

 

[innsertnamehere]

Exactly - it also doesn't explain how costs for other projects are not doubling in a relatively short period of time.

I believe the original estimate for building the Eglinton Crosstown was $4.6 billion. It's now $5.3 billion. A big increase, but certainly not double - and the Crosstown has been under construction for a while now.

The SSE has doubled in cost, and I'm not even sure there at the 50% point in the design phase. The cost continues to skyrocket even though they've had to drop the entire Crosstown East LRT extension as part of the plan.

Because those projects are not being calculated in escalated dollars. It's actually rather unusual to use escalated dollars from my understanding. The province typically doesn't do it for it's projects, only the city is doing it for theirs (DRL, Eglinton West/East).

The Eglinton Crosstown increased because of scope creep, same way this is moving. The Mount Dennis portal got more extensive with some increased grade separation that can be blamed for most of the increased costs, from my understanding.

The $1.5 billion LRT cost in escalated dollars at planned year of expenditure would likely have been well north of $2.5 billion, for comparison. That was in 2010 dollars, which are significantly below even 2019 dollars.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

construction costs escalate much faster than inflation. Last year saw costs increase by almost 15% IIRC - mind you that is well above normal, but 5% annual increases is pretty standard.

The accounting change only reflects the increase from $2 to $3.2 as well - other cost increases are attributed to scope creep. The scope creep mostly comes from the city doing land use planning studies for STC and realizing the kinds of spending required in the area that can be bundled into the subway project (road reconfigurations, public realm improvements, etc.).

If you compound a 3.7% annual inflation rate to 2026 from 2013, $2 billion becomes $3.2. It's not that crazy.

If construction costs are increasing faster than inflation, the price to taxpayers is also increasing. I don’t see how this is due to an accounting change. Idk if it accounts for the entire incrase, but it must be a big factor.

I can see @innsertnamehere 's point. Construction never gets less expensive. What I want to know is why the city hid this from us and allowed it to get to this point.

 

[nfitz]

Exaggerate??

Certainly not exaggerated! Go back to the top of this thread. In 2006 TTC came up with the $1.2 billion 2-station (Scarborough Centre and Lawrence East) plan and then decided that was too expensive, so dropped it from consideration.

Didn't someone comment back then that it could be done for less than $1.2 billion? I'd think anyone who said that this will cost over $4-billion before it was done would have been blocked for trolling!

What I want to know is why the city hid this from us and allowed it to get to this point.

Why do we think anything has been hidden since the 2016 or so estimate? Look at the timeframe on that - it was escalated cost and would open in 2023. If you throw in another 3-4 delay to the 2026/2027 they are now looking at, the big question to me is why hasn't it gone up even more!