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Baby, we got a bubble!?

interested said:
without reviewing the data, I think he may be referring to SFH's in desirable areas.
Could this maybe be what he is referring to or have SFH inventories also risen?
I believe there is an increase in number of condos.

The other question as well I think daveto is how much of the market is "stale listings" where people don't really
want to sell but put it on and figure if I get a "ridiculous price" I will. In the overheated markets, poor quality
stuff was selling at premiums. Now, if one has a rather poorer quality product unless a tear down in a highly desirable area, I think it won't sell.

I am reminded a bit of Florida where we have a condo. There are 18 for sale but at least 12 are priced assuming a 10-15% increase in price over the last sale because prices are rising there. They are not selling and the few that are selling are going for realistic prices. I think in this market both in Toronto and Florida, there is no urgency to buy an overpriced property so inventories are rising as people hold out for unrealistic prices. That said, these same vendors are likely not challenged and so the real inventory (realistically priced to sell) may in fact be smaller than showing.
Click to expand...

I can't comment on "soft" inventory factors. But referring to the published April statistics from TREB

YOY GTA All Inventory is up 14%
YOY GTA Detached inventory is up 16%
YOY 416 Detached inventory is up 20%
YOY 416 Central Detached inventory is up 31%
 
May 2013 TREB data is out

YOY Avg prices +5.4% (adjusted for product mix, +2.8%)
YOY Sales -5% (on consistent basis)

Inventory and Days on Market +10%
New Listings set an alltime high for May (albeit just marginally ahead of last year)

In total I'd say its a fairly bland month. Not very conclusive for either bears or bulls, but probably better for bulls.
 
My guess anecdotally is that June will be better than May with good weather.

I have heard from people I know that things really picked up the past month or so. Also, last year, things really slowed in June and further in July to the end of the year essentially...I suspect the numbers will impress on the upside in June and possibly July...and it will be explained away as due to the relatively lower sales volume in 2012.
 
That's what I heard as well, and witnessed many first time home buyers around me are buying right now. Welcome to the cycle of life and there goes the chronical bubble-panic syndrome.

interested said:
My guess anecdotally is that June will be better than May with good weather.

I have heard from people I know that things really picked up the past month or so. Also, last year, things really slowed in June and further in July to the end of the year essentially...I suspect the numbers will impress on the upside in June and possibly July...and it will be explained away as due to the relatively lower sales volume in 2012.
Click to expand...
 
azureray said:
That's what I heard as well, and witnessed many first time home buyers around me are buying right now. Welcome to the cycle of life and there goes the chronical bubble-panic syndrome.
Click to expand...

I am not so sure about the latter part of this statement (bolded).
 
You can get 30 years amortization again, so first time home buyers are re entering again and with rent prices downtown at all time highs it makes sense to buy.
 
RZ12 said:
You can get 30 years amortization again, so first time home buyers are re entering again and with rent prices downtown at all time highs it makes sense to buy.
Click to expand...

Really? I gather this is not through CMHC as I thought a significant amount of the CMHC mortgages were to first time home buyers. Is the 30 year mortgage for an uninsured mortgage and a non bank?

Also, RZ12, we just had the first slight incling of bond rate increases which set mortgage rates. Your last statement with regards to downtown rents at all time highs may be premature. Rents have stabilized and probably the next move will be slightly down again in rents. Also, if mortgage rates do increase even minorly, your statement about it making sense to buy may in fact not be correct (from a strictly financial perspective.)
 
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The wife and I were looking at a detached house with income suite in C1 a couple weeks ago. We didn't make an offer since the numbers didn't quite add up for us for the listing price, but found out there were multiple offers anyway. The sellers wanted $100k over asking, and no one was close. So they chose to take the house off the market (it was listed at same price about 2 years exactly and got no takers).
 
^^^
This could be interpreted 2 ways: Prices have not budged in 2 years or alternatively the price was too high then and too high now. I don't think we can make too much of it other than to conclude that people were willing to bid what they thought was reasonable with multiple offers but not willing to pay 100K beyond. I am curious as to how you know no one was close because theoretically that should only be in the seller's purview.
 
There ought to be some kind of law against not selling when someone matches or exceeds your asking price. That's false advertising, man.
 
macookie said:
Another Bank of Canada warning...

http://www.thestar.com/business/rea...et_a_risk_to_economy_says_bank_of_canada.html
Click to expand...
Yeap!
I came back her on purpose just to post that link you just posted.
There are people here smoking special herbs that gives the the vision of an increasing condo market.
I guess that with the storms they are having these days on the Asian markets even more asians will buy Toronto condos so ...no problems here.
We are building more condos, they will buy them all and our economy is growing stronger.
In exchange we will get tons of toys, t-shirts, underwear, you know...cheap stuff that you use once and you throw away :).

Bank of Canada ? who cares about them .
 
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