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Baby, we got a bubble!?

Yeah, I live in Scarborough and have had to drive all over recently, and drive from Etobicoke to Scarborough through city streets recently.

It's remarkable and absolutely crazy, to see that every little nook and cranny gets a new condo, from east Etobicoke to West Scarborough.

I was a bit worried 5 years ago, but I'm more worried now. It's nuts how many buildings are going up. There is a chance of a soft landing, but the condo builders are making it harder and harder to believe that. And it's possible a condo pullback can drag on single family homes too.
 
Eug said:
Yeah, I live in Scarborough and have had to drive all over recently, and drive from Etobicoke to Scarborough through city streets recently.

It's remarkable and absolutely crazy, to see that every little nook and cranny gets a new condo, from east Etobicoke to West Scarborough.

I was a bit worried 5 years ago, but I'm more worried now. It's nuts how many buildings are going up. There is a chance of a soft landing, but the condo builders are making it harder and harder to believe that. And it's possible a condo pullback can drag on single family homes too.
Click to expand...


although this is anecdontal evidence, i've noticed and had many people mention to me that (at least in the dt core) they see alot of the same dark units every night ... we can only assume that those are vacant and not just very frugal occupants.

there is the custom in China to keep the units unoccupied as they believe renting it out will diminish the value as it won't be "brand new" so the same could be happening here.

and i concur with Eug ... developers are building almost everywhere now.
 
cdr108 said:
there is the custom in China to keep the units unoccupied as they believe renting it out will diminish the value as it won't be "brand new" so the same could be happening here.
Click to expand...

I think ownership in Asia brings a feeling of prestige. Like saying, I own 10 apartments all over the world. They keep it empty so if they have friends or family, they can brag about it. Or use it as a vacation house for close friends, family or themselves. I've seen one interview where one Japanese actor said they knew another actor who owned a house in west coast US and that actor lent him the keys to use his house when he went to the US for vacation. People in HK have apartments in China to house their lovers. Some house their wife and children overseas and their lovers in Asia.
 
recharts said:
I guess that with the storms they are having these days on the Asian markets even more asians will buy Toronto condos so ...no problems here.
Click to expand...

You mean like the NIKKEI? That's still up 22% YTD? That's up 48% from this time last year? The smart money is already out.
 
klb86 said:
You mean like the NIKKEI? That's still up 22% YTD? That's up 48% from this time last year? The smart money is already out.
Click to expand...

There is some nonsense in the rumors that are flying around about the asian investors.
If NIKKEI is so profitable WTH are the asians thinking when they are buying condos in Toronto? Diversification ? That would be the joke of the year.
 
recharts said:
There is some nonsense in the rumors that are flying around about the asian investors.
If NIKKEI is so profitable WTH are the asians thinking when they are buying condos in Toronto? Diversification ? That would be the joke of the year.
Click to expand...

Pretty much anything that you've said in this forum would qualify for tht award recharts. Your comments are nonsensical and the layers of absurdity just keep piling on deeper and deeper.

Yes, some Asians, actually many Asians, find owning property in Toronto/Canada a desirsble diversification strategy considering their market based Communist governments can choose to confiscate their wealth at any time. Is that really such a shocking concept to you or are you just buried too deep in your own stubborn dogma to see the reality of the situation as opposed to what you wish it to be?
 
CN Tower said:
Pretty much anything that you've said in this forum would qualify for tht award recharts. Your comments are nonsensical and the layers of absurdity just keep piling on deeper and deeper.

Yes, some Asians, actually many Asians, find owning property in Toronto/Canada a desirsble diversification strategy considering their market based Communist governments can choose to confiscate their wealth at any time. Is that really such a shocking concept to you or are you just buried too deep in your own stubborn dogma to see the reality of the situation as opposed to what you wish it to be?
Click to expand...

since you are a self declared champion of making sense around here you could explain as why the sales are falling? Have your asians changed their mind?
I am just curious what you would say, not that it matters to me, I am just playing along with your joke.
 
rom the National Post today:

2013 housing sales off to better start than expected

Canadian Press | 13/06/17 | Last Updated: 13/06/17 11:33 AM ET
More from Canadian Press
The Canadian Real Estate Association still expects fewer sales this year than in 2012 but says the decline will be smaller than predicted in March.
Getty ImagesThe Canadian Real Estate Association still expects fewer sales this year than in 2012 but says the decline will be smaller than predicted in March.

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Sorry to inform you, but ‘The Great Real Estate Crash of 2011…no…2012…no…2013′ has been postponed

OTTAWA — The number of Canadian homes sold so far this year is slightly higher than projected and it looks as if 2014 will show a rebound, according to a new forecast by the Canadian real estate industry’s main association.

The Canadian Real Estate Association said Monday it still expects fewer sales this year than in 2012 but says the decline will be smaller than what was predicted in March. It also projected that next year will show more sales than in 2013 or 2012.

“Until recently, it seemed that the only debate on Canada’s housing market was whether the landing was going to be of the soft or rough variety. Well, it appears that housing may not be so keen on landing at all at this point,” said BMO Capital Markets chief economist Douglas Porter.

“Sorry to inform you, but “The Great Real Estate Crash of 2011…no…2012…no…2013” has been postponed until 2014, or until further notice. More seriously, we believe housing remains on track for a fabled soft landing.”
Related

Upbeat new housing numbers could be ‘last hurrah’
Home building surge signals soft landing for housing market
Canada’s housing market not out of the woods yet, warns Scotiabank

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CREA is now estimating 443,400 units will be sold in 2013, a decline of 2.5% from 454,573 in 2012. It had previously projected a decline of 2.9% from 2012.



CREA says the sales activity began to pick up at the end of the first quarter and accelerated in the second quarter.

The association also says 2014 will see a strong rebound, with 464,300 units of housing sold — about 9,700 more than last year.

The number of transactions dropped off in the second half of 2012 after new mortgage rules for lenders and buyers were introduced by the federal government last summer.

CREA reported there were 51,764 residential properties of all types sold across Canada last month, down 2.6% from May 2012.

On a month-to-month basis, May showed a 3.6% increase from April with 37,792 units and 36,473 units sold on a seasonally adjusted basis in the first two months of the second quarter.

The association’s home price index was up 2.3% in May, compared with a year earlier. That was slightly better than April’s HPI of 2.2% but still near two-year lows.

The May national average price, for all types of property in major markets across Canada, was $388,910 — up 3.7% from a year earlier. Almost all of the local markets that make up the average saw year-to-year increases.
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What a load of crap.
Like one would have expected CREA to say the market is turning for worse.
The May mid month numbers are due these days ..let's see what they reveal.
I hope to have time to prepare my stats this evening



interested said:
rom the National Post today:

2013 housing sales off to better start than expected

Canadian Press | 13/06/17 | Last Updated: 13/06/17 11:33 AM ET
More from Canadian Press
The Canadian Real Estate Association still expects fewer sales this year than in 2012 but says the decline will be smaller than predicted in March.
Getty ImagesThe Canadian Real Estate Association still expects fewer sales this year than in 2012 but says the decline will be smaller than predicted in March.

Twitter
Google+
LinkedIn
Email
Comments
More

Sorry to inform you, but ‘The Great Real Estate Crash of 2011…no…2012…no…2013′ has been postponed

OTTAWA — The number of Canadian homes sold so far this year is slightly higher than projected and it looks as if 2014 will show a rebound, according to a new forecast by the Canadian real estate industry’s main association.

The Canadian Real Estate Association said Monday it still expects fewer sales this year than in 2012 but says the decline will be smaller than what was predicted in March. It also projected that next year will show more sales than in 2013 or 2012.

“Until recently, it seemed that the only debate on Canada’s housing market was whether the landing was going to be of the soft or rough variety. Well, it appears that housing may not be so keen on landing at all at this point,” said BMO Capital Markets chief economist Douglas Porter.

“Sorry to inform you, but “The Great Real Estate Crash of 2011…no…2012…no…2013” has been postponed until 2014, or until further notice. More seriously, we believe housing remains on track for a fabled soft landing.”
Related

Upbeat new housing numbers could be ‘last hurrah’
Home building surge signals soft landing for housing market
Canada’s housing market not out of the woods yet, warns Scotiabank

Advertisement
Advertisement

CREA is now estimating 443,400 units will be sold in 2013, a decline of 2.5% from 454,573 in 2012. It had previously projected a decline of 2.9% from 2012.



CREA says the sales activity began to pick up at the end of the first quarter and accelerated in the second quarter.

The association also says 2014 will see a strong rebound, with 464,300 units of housing sold — about 9,700 more than last year.

The number of transactions dropped off in the second half of 2012 after new mortgage rules for lenders and buyers were introduced by the federal government last summer.

CREA reported there were 51,764 residential properties of all types sold across Canada last month, down 2.6% from May 2012.

On a month-to-month basis, May showed a 3.6% increase from April with 37,792 units and 36,473 units sold on a seasonally adjusted basis in the first two months of the second quarter.

The association’s home price index was up 2.3% in May, compared with a year earlier. That was slightly better than April’s HPI of 2.2% but still near two-year lows.

The May national average price, for all types of property in major markets across Canada, was $388,910 — up 3.7% from a year earlier. Almost all of the local markets that make up the average saw year-to-year increases.
Facebook Find FP Personal Fina
Click to expand...
 
Last edited:
recharts said:
What a load of crap.
Like one would have expected CREA to say the market is turning for worse.
The May mid month numbers are due these days ..let's see what they reveal.
I hope to have time to prepare my stats this evening
Click to expand...

Why not spare us the precious moments of wasted effort of ignoring your moronic data this time? Truly no one here is interested.
 
CN Tower said:
Why not spare us the precious moments of wasted effort of ignoring your moronic data this time? Truly no one here is interested.
Click to expand...

Speak for yourself and qualify your thoughts using that adjective.
As a matter of fact and in your face, I am receiving hits on my blog coming from this site (thanks urbantoronto!), otherwise I would not be posting here anymore.
 
This was an interesting article on housing affordability (basically, Toronto has never been affordable):

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...-affordabilitys-tipping-point/article12617749

The part that stuck out for me was that according to this, Toronto's housing cost average since 1985 is 48.7% of the borrower's gross income, and it is currently 53.8%.

"Royal Bank of Canada's housing affordability measure takes a quarterly look at what percentage of median pre-tax household income is needed to pay the cost of a mortgage on an average-priced detached bungalow, plus property taxes and utilities. Lenders deem a house to be affordable if the associated costs account for no more than 32 per cent of the borrower’s gross income."
 
greenleaf said:
This was an interesting article on housing affordability (basically, Toronto has never been affordable):

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...-affordabilitys-tipping-point/article12617749

The part that stuck out for me was that according to this, Toronto's housing cost average since 1985 is 48.7% of the borrower's gross income, and it is currently 53.8%.

"Royal Bank of Canada's housing affordability measure takes a quarterly look at what percentage of median pre-tax household income is needed to pay the cost of a mortgage on an average-priced detached bungalow, plus property taxes and utilities. Lenders deem a house to be affordable if the associated costs account for no more than 32 per cent of the borrower’s gross income."
Click to expand...

I believe that measure uses the assumption of the published 5 year mortgage rates and a 25% downpayment. The former overstates the carrying cost, and that latter understates the carrying cost. Also, I'm not sure if they reflect changes since 1985 (ie Land transfer taxes, etc)
 
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